Saturday, February 28, 2009

One hell of a day!

Well it did snow last night and this morning, but im going to admit my forecast was COMPLETELY off. Take a look at my previous forecast from last night below:

What happened today didnt look like this at all. The map below shows the accumulation today:

I went to bed last night with a very uncomfortable feeling about my snowfall forecast. At around 4:30, I woke up, and it wasnt snowing yet at my house which is in Marceline, Missouri. I looked at the data, and the low had tracked a bit further west placing areas around KC, Warrensburg, Sedalia and points southeast in a heavy band of snow. The storm drew in enough moisture for heavy snowfall rates to occur of up to 2 inches an hour!
I am dissapointed in myself for missing this forecast, but it was a tricky one, and the other day, I thought this would be a "nowcasting" event, but I sure as heck wasnt staying up that late last night. This was my first blown forecast this season, and man it gets to you! The good new about weather though is you always get another chance.
I am very pleased this turned out to be a major snowstorm because our area hasnt seen one all season until now.
Now with a fresh blanket of snow on the groung in many areas, high pressure moving in, clear skies, and calm winds we will experience the perfect set up for radiational cooling. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits, and below zero in spots. Highs tomorrow, in places who saw the snow, likely will struggle to make it into the mid to upper 20's.
But is this Winter's final rally...I dont think so. But Spring is about to make another appearence once again as we are about to have warm air surge into the region Tuesday through Friday, with highs in the 50's, 60's, and 70's around the area.
I will have a new blog tomorrow. Hopefully soon we will have another snowstorm, and I have a chance to redeem myself.
Alex Pickman

Friday, February 27, 2009

Snow tonight and Saturday morning

Snow is entering northwest Missouri, and there has been reports of 1/2 an inch already up there and roads are getting slick. The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for most of the area.

Here is my snowfall forecast below:

Highs Saturday will be in the 20's.

The snow should be mostly out of the area by late morning. Now with snow on the tomorrow night, and high pressure nearing the area, I think lows will drop into the single digits with calm winds.

This cold air will be followed a big warm up Tuesday through Friday.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Thunderstorms...cold fronts...snow?...Updated!

Well the arctic front has pushed well through and temperatures are crashing into the 20's and teens are entering northwestern Missouri. I think temperatures will be primarily in the teens from north of a line from Kansas City northward. Top that with winds 15 to 35 mph, and wind chills will be in the single digits in many spots over night.

What a difference from the 60's earlier today! Now what about Friday night an Saturday? Well that data is insisting that we will see some accumulating snow, and right now it still looks like 1-3 inches with the highest totals east of the Missouri/Kansas state line as the upper low dives just southwest of Kansas City.

Right now our storm is in Idaho, and when it gets here, the arctic air will be in place with temperatures in the 20's. This may allow everything that falls from start to end to be all snow, which just means more accumulation. If I were to give a snow forecast now, I would say maybe 1-2 inches in Kansas City, and 1-3 inches east of there toward Chillicothe, to Kirksville, and south of there.

I will have a snowfall forecast tomorrow, as right it is still too early to tell. If you are not a snow lover, the good news for you is that I am expecting another big warm up almost all of next week! If you are a snow lover, enjoy it while it lasts as it could be the last accumulating snow, but maybe March will produce?

I will have a snowfall forecast tomorrow afternoon.

Previous entry below


Take a look at the surface map from 3:00 PM:

Notice the teens and 20's entering Nebraska behind an arctic cold front associated with a clipper system well to the north. Also take note of the very hot weather in Texas with low to mid 90's! This is a perfect enviornment for storms to form. They thrive on these temperature contrasts. And you can see the surface storm in northern Missouri, which produced some showers and thunderstorms this morning, and some were marginally severe with some hail. They formed along and behind a warm front that brough 60 degree weather back into the area.

As the surface cold front pushed through the storms congealed into more of a line. And a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued as some of the storms turned severe with strong winds, and maybe some hail. The cold front has rapidly pushed southeast and so did the thunderstorms. ow the arctic front associated with an Alberta clipper is moving through the area.

Take a look at the current surface map below:

Thunderstorms will continue to role through southeast Missouri, and a few may be severe. For the rest of the area, the arctic front means a cold push of air into the region. Lows Friday morning will be in the teens and 20's before warming into the 30's with 40's southeast of Kansas City. The cold air will really push in Friday night as high pressure approaches, and lows will dip into the teens Friday night.

With the arctic air in place Friday night and Saturday, and a disturbence rolling through, this will make a favorable enviornment for snow - possibly accumulating snow. Take a look at the 500 mb forecast for Saturday morning:

The disturbence will drop in from the northwest, and with it, likely a swath of snow, that right now looks to bring 1-3 inches of snow.

I will have an update tomorrow as the snow probabilities will likely increase.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Warm, rain, snow?!

Take a look at the current surface map below:

The temperatures should not get below what they are now, and when you wake up tomorrow morning, I think lows will be in the upper 30's to low to mid 40's. Warm air will surge in tommorow and here is what I am expecting for highs around the area:

Temperatures Wednesday night wont drop much at all...Likely only into the 50's. A cold front will be pushing south Thursday, and I think showers and thunderstorms will fire along this front as a low develops out ahead of the front near the area. The heaviest rain looks to fall northeast of Kansas City as the storm doesn't get too developed until it moves east of KC. So northeast Missouri and points east will likley see possibly up to an inch. If the low develops stronger just to the west of KC, the area of heavier rain will also spread west. The cold front will push through late Thursday afternoon and evening, and temperatures will crash into the teens and 20's Thursday night after highs in the 50's form KC northward, and 60's south of I-70.
The cold air will stay in place through the weekend, and this will set up the stage for a chance of snow on Saturday as a disturbence moves by. This disturbence is still really iffy, but looking at the lastest data, the chance is better. Right now I am going with a 30% chance, but I may up that tomorrow to a 40 or 50% chance dependent on the data.
Alex Pickman

Monday, February 23, 2009

Quick update...Warm air surging in!

Winds will pick up out of the southwest, and warm air will surge in on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. I am going for highs Tuesday in the upper 40's in northern Missouri, and 50's from around highway 36 southward. The warm air really pushes in on Wednesday when I think the entire area will be in the 60's with upper 60's in Kansas City, and 70's just to the southeast of there.

Another strong cold front will pass through Thursday night, and there will be a chance of showers, and maybe a thunderstorm, but it appears we may be in the wrong spot once again.

After the front passes through, lows Thursday night will dip into the low to mid 20's, and only making it into the 30's on Friday, but 40's wont be too far away. We will experience another cold night Friday with lows dipping likley into the teens. Then hear comes another warm up next week!

There is a very slight chance of snow on Saturday, but I dont think it will do anything at this moment.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Cold morning...warm up!

It was a very cold morning with a low of 10 degrees at St. Joeseph, Missouri and single digits just to the north of that as high pressure moved into the area. Today will remain cold with temperatures topping out in the 30's across the area with abundant sunshine. Lows tonight will dip into te low 20's and teens before a warm up comes into play this week.

Take a look at the current surface map:

Monday will be the first day of at least 4 nice days. I think highs Monday will push into the mid to upper 40's with 50's nearby. Then Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days during this warm up with mid to upper 50's on Tuesday and mid 50's to mid 60's on Wednesday. I see a possibility of 60's pushing into the area on Tuesday, but the most likely day for 60 degree weather will be Wednesday.
Another weaker arctic front will push through the area sometime Thursday evening, and temperatures will likley drop into the teens and 20's once again. There may be a chance of some rain and thunderstorms out ahead of the fron Thursday, but it doesnt look like we will be in the right spot once again.
This Winter has been a dissapointment for snow lovers, but you cant say it hasnt been a wild ride so far with the temperature swings. with 50 to 60 degree drops in temperatures.
Alex Pickman

Friday, February 20, 2009

Warm up and another dry front!

Here is a look at the surface map this morning:

Winds are out of the south and southwest at around 5 mph. It is fairly cold this morning with temperatures in the teens in northeast Missouri, and the rest of the area mainly in the 20's. A warm front should pass through this morning with increasing clouds and winds. Winds should increase to around 10 to 20 mph after the front moves through. These stiff southerly winds will push in warmer air, and I think highs will be in the 5o's across the entire area with 60's just southeast of Kansas City.
Dont get too caught up with this warm up, as there is a strong cold front that will blast through this evening between 5 and 7 PM. Temperatures will crash tonight from the 50's to the teens and 20's. We will likely also be dealing with winds gusting maybe up to 40 mph. There is potential for a few flurries tonight.
I think highs on Saturday wont get out of the 20's in areas northeast of Kansas City, and 30's from Columbia southward. Saturday will aslo be breezy with winds 10 to 25 mph. This will likely make windchill values dip into the teens.
Then the big dip in temperatures comes in Saturday night as the arctic high moves right over us, winds calm, and skies clear. This will create a favorable enviornment for radiational cooling. Lows Saturday night will push single digits likely down to I-70, and I see potential for a few readings below zero in extreme northern Missouri.
Sunday will be a transitional day as warm air will be heading back into the area, and by Monday, we will be back into the 50's. This warm blast will likely last through Thursday.
The storm that will be causing the warm up today is taking a track to bring Illinois, including Chicago another significant snowstorm. Northern Illinois is under a Winter Storm Warning, and I think 4-8 inches will be possible in this area. We have seen this all season as snowstorms develop to the north of us, and the same storm system just swings a cold front through, and we end up with a dry big temperature swing. There is potential for a storm near us next week, and this looks to be the case again.
Alex Pickman

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Cold day today...warm up?

It was in the upper single digits to mid teens this morning as high pressure settled near the area. Now temperatures have warmed into the 20's, and I am expecting highs to top out in the upper 20's and 30's. The good news is the sun will be out all day.

Temperatures tonight wont be all that cold with lows in the 20's. A warm air mass heads our way late tonight and tomorrow as a warm front pushed through. Take a look at the current temperture map:

Here is where I think the location of the front will be by noon on Friday
I think highs will rise into the 50's tomorrow with 60's just to the southwest of Kansas City. Temperatures will drop late Friday afternoon, and Friday night maybe back into the teens and lower 20's. I think there is a possibilty of 20's dominating the highs on Saturday. High pressure will settle in Saturday night right overhead and I think temperatures will drop into the single digits north of I-70.
We are going to experience another big warm up Sunday though Wednesday, and possibly Thursday. All I am going to say about next week is that it looks very very interesting.
Alex Pickman

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Evening update

Take a look at the sureface map below:

Cold air will continue to push into the area as winds continue to blow out of the north at 10 to 30 mph. High pressure will drop into southeastern Nebraska tonight, and I am expecting temperatures to dip into the teens. Since winds blow away from high pressure, and the high will be just to the north tonight, the northerly winds will continue breezy overnight.

I will have a new blog tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Another storm...sprinkles?!

Take a look at the current surface map below:

Areas south and east of the low will see upper 40's and 50's overnight, while areas north of the low remain cold with 20's and 30's. It is pretty incredible to have such a stong surface low with almost no precipitation. If this setup was in the Spring, it likley would be a large scale severe weather outbreak.

There is a chance of some sprinkles overnight, but really nothing more than that.

The cold front is still north of the low, but by tomorrow morning, the front will have fused into the low, and push through the area. Highs on Wednesday will likely be in the 30's with strong northerly winds between 10 and 30 mph, possibly gusting to 35 mph.

It will be cold Wednesday night, as arctic air spill in and tempertures drop into the teens with single digits possible in extreme northwestern Missouri.

It looks like another decent warm up Friday with 50's possible, then another brief arctic blast as a strong cold front pushed through late Friday and lows Friday night dip into the teens. Highs Saturday will likely be in the upper 20's and low to mid 30's around the area. The arctic high will move overhead Saturday night and temperatures will likely drop into the single digits and lower teens before another warm up Sunday and into early next week. I think highs may make it into the 40's on Sunday.

So the ups and downs which have charactorized ths weather pattern continue. But, where is the precipitation??? I am seeing the possibility of a more widespread precipitation event sometime late next week. It is just a fantasy storm right now, but I think it will be fun to track.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Warm up...Arctic blasts?!

It was a cool and sunny day today with highs in the low to mid 30's around the area. Areas in NW Missouri, who had some accumulating snow on Friday, remained 5-10 degrees cooler. Take a look at the visible satelite image below:

You can see the band of snow that tracked through Nebraska and Iowa. It was very close to having a major snowstorm in our area, but the track of the storm system stayed too far north. In my opinion, this was our best chance all season for heavy snowfall, but yet again, it just didnt play out.

The storm system swung a cold front through Friday, and now high pressure is nearing the area. Winds will be calm overnight, and skes will be clear. This will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens, and maybe around 9 or 10 degrees in extreme northwest Missouri where the snowpack exists.

The winds will switch from the east tonight to the south on Monday, allowing highs Monday to make it into the 40's in many locations with winds win the 5-15 mph range. A warm front will lift morth Monday night, and highs Tuesday will likely be in the 50's. Now this warm up will be associated with storm system which may bring another snowstorm near the area. The most likely outcome is the snow falls in Nebraska and Iowa once again as the low stays to the north, but a slight track to the south, and we will end up in the snow. I think the snow is going to stay to the north of us once again though.

The main thing this next storm is going to bring to our area is a big drop in tempertures with a strong cold front late Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will likley be in the low teens and even single digits across the area, and if the storm does produce some accumulating snow, you can take off 5 to 10 more degrees. Highs Wednesday will likely be in the 20's.

Then anoter strong cold front will push through around Friday night with another arctic blast. Highs on Saturday may be in the 20's.

I will have a new blog tomorrow night.

Alex Pickman

Friday, February 13, 2009

Another miss!

Well this third storm in the series was a dud for the immediate area. The morning started off with some light mixed precipitation around the area which did not lead much to anything. As the vort max moved across central and northern Kansas, snow developed in Nebraska and spread into Iowa with significant accumulations. The storm tracked into northern Missouri and southern Iowa with the heaviest precipitation just to the north of it.

As the storm continued pressing east, the counterclockwise rotation allowed some of the snow to wrap around the beack side, but it was light, only producing a dusting to an inch in spots north of I-70. The snow total at KCI was only 0.1". Kind of depressing when you think just a couple hundred miles away, the snow was comig down at 2 inches per hour!

The snow is now moving off towards Chicago where more heavy snow accumulations are likely. This storm, when it was just off the west coast, was a very organized strong upper level low, and by the time it got here it was a little wave that moved to the north eliminating our chances of seeing a decent snowstorm. I think this was our best shot all season, and yet again, it missed us.

There is one more band of snow extending down to highway 36 which may cause a dusting in spots.

Take a look at the water vapor satelite image below:

Storm number 2 which affected the area Tuesday night and Wednesday is still a fairly strong upper level low north of Maine. Storm number 4, which is due in around Sunday, was very strong and well developed. It is now moving onshore and is weakening which is what this current storm #3 did. Storm #4 should come through as another wave, and the lastest data has no precipitation for Sunday.

A 5th storm will arrive sometime next Tuesday, but right now, it looks to be Nebraska and Iowa with the snow, but a slight shift south, and we could be in the snow. This is still several days out, so things will change.

I will have a new blog tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Rain moving in...Severe weather...Snowstorm?!?!

Finally, the first storm in the past 45 days to give us a significant amount of precipitation is now begining to affect us with some heavy rain and thunderstorms moving into the area from the south. Take a look at the radar image from 9:00 PM below:

A widespread area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is overpreading the area and there is potential for heavy rain totals especially across central Missouri. Here is Gary Lezak's rainfall forecast through noon Wednesday:

In responce to the heavy rain, the NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch. Take a look at the map below:

There have been numerous reports of lightning with this rain as well. Speaking of lightning, there has been explosive thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening in Oklahoma and Texas along a dry line. These thunderstorms were in the form of rotating supercells, and did produce some tornadoes, one of which was just north of Oklahoma City in the town of Edmond, OK.

Here is a look at that storm north of Oklahoma City (Radar image provided by NBC Action

The severe weather is still ongoing to the south from Texas through Oklahoma. There is a slight risk for severe weather up here, but it is very slight. The better likelyhood for severe thunderstorm activity will occur the further south you go in southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri.

Take a look at the severe risk map below:

This is a very Spring-like storm system with very warm air, moisture available, and a severe weather outbreak.

The rain sould continue across the area tonight, and likely end sometime late tonight. But, another area of precipitation will likely form tomorrow morning, and temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 30's after a night time high in the low to mid 50's. If temperatures are just a couple degrees cooler, we could be dealing with some snowflakes in the morning through noon.
The storm affecting us now is storm number 2 in the series. Take a look at the map below:

You can see strong storm number 1 which affected us Monday morning with a fast moving band of rain and thunderstorms, some of which were marginally severe.

You can see where storm number 2, the one affecting us now is rapidly developing. But here is what I want to show you - Do you see storm number 3 off the northwest coast? Well that storm has the potential to be a major snowstorm in our area late Friday afternoon and Friday night. Take a look at the map below:

Friday is still iffy as the models are not very consistent with the timing and location of the storm. The reason I posted the 6z GFS is because this model seems to have a better grip on this weather pattern.
So rain/thunderstorms tonight with severe weather to the south. Rain/snow possible in the morning. Storms moves out later Wednesday with a rain total of 0.50" to over 2" in spots. Storm number 3 arrives Friday with a decent chance of snow, possibly heavy with large accumulations if the track is right. This storm is still very iffy. There is also a storm number 4 showing up on the models that may affect afect us early next week.
I will have a new blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman

Monday, February 9, 2009

Rain moving in

Rain is racing east across central Kansas this morning in the form of a band of rain with some thunderstorms. The problem with this is, the rain is moving very fast, and I think it will be hard to squeeze out even 0.10". This doesnt help our dry spell much, which has been going on for around 44 days now with no measurable precipitation.

The sun should come out later today and winds will be between 20 and 40 mph with gusts near 50 in spots. This will let temperatureswarm into the 70's for highs today.

So today is not looking good for measurable rainfall, and now either is Wednesday depending on where you live. The latest data has the storm tracking even further south of us. Take a look at the 6z GFS valid Wednesday:

This looks to be a wet storm for Missouri, and is taking the 1-2 inches likely south of I -70. We still have to watch this closely as it may change.
Storm #3 for Friday is still looking good for a snowstorm in the area, but it is a long ways out and things will change, but hopefully as more snow.
I will have a new blog tonight.
Alex Pickman

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Exciting week of weather!

Well I havnt blogged in a few days, so lets recap what happened this weekend. A warm front pushed through early Thursday morning, and temperatures Thursday afternoon topped out in the upper 50's and 60's. Friday warmed ino the 60's and 70's and Saturday was the warmest day of the week with highs in the 60's and 70's as well.

Late Saturday afternoon and evening a cold front pushed through and temperatures Saturday night dropped into the 30's. It was mostly cloudy today with periods of sun but it was not nearly as warm, even though it was still above average with temperatures in the 40's. Now that leaves us where we are now.
A storm system is over eastern Colorado right now producing a band of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front in eastern New Mexico and western Texas where earlier there was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect. The storm system is also swinging a warm front north through Kansas and Missouri tonight, and I wouldnt rule out some patchy drzzle overnight. Winds will increase overnight across the area, and so will the temperatures as the warm front pushes through. Take a look at the forecast surface map for Monday:

I highlighted the isobars which connect areas of equal barometric pressure and drew in the wind direction. The winds will be out of the south before the cold front pushes through, then they will switch to more out of the southwest after the passage of the front. Notice how the isobars are close together around the area. This will translate to strong winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 45 mph. For that reason, the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory.
Take a look at the severe weather map below:

The strong southerly winds will allow highs Monday to warm into the 60's.

Now back to the rain. With the warm front lifted to the north Monday morning, the cold front which really is not a cold front, but a dry line will push through the area. Out ahead of that will be a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Right now this band of showers and thunderstorms is in the panhandle of Texas, but by tomorrow morning, it should be in central Kansas, and by around 10:00 AM, I am expecting that rain to be on the Kansas/Missouri state line and progressing eastward. By 1:00 PM the rain should be in central Missouri and by 3:00 PM on the Missouri/Illinois state line. I think the rain should be completly out on Missouri by 4:00 PM.

Once the dry line moves through, the precipitation will shut off and the sun should come out. Rain totals will likely be between 0.10" and 0.25". There could be higher totals of up to a half an inch in spots who get thunderstorms. This may not sound like a lot of rain, but given we are now on a 44 day dry spell with no significant precipitation and only 0.05" recorded a KCI since December 27th, this is like a deluge.

You may be wondering if there is any chance of severe weather on Monday. The SPC has a slight risk for northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, south eastern Nebraska, and south western Iowa. I am expecting a couple warnings tomorrow moning, but they would be just marginally severe.

It should be clear Monday night with lows dropping into the 40's, and Tuesday highs should jump into the upper 50's and 60's once again before a stronger storm number 2 enters the equation Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think there is potential for heavy rain late Tuesday night and Wednesday, before possibly changing over to some snowflakes with no accumulation.

If you are a snow lover, I would be praying for storm number 3 Friday into early Saturday, as it looks to have best potential to see snow accumulation depending on the track. Take a look a 6z GFS map below valid Saturday:

I will have a new blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Is it Feburary or April?...Thunderstorms?

Well highs today were in the upper 20's and low to mid 30's around the area after a frigid morning with lows in the single digits and some below zero. Tonight, temperatures at the surface will not drop much from where they are now in the teens and 20's.
The arctic high that was overhead early this mornig and last night is pressing southeast, and with clockwise rotation, a warm front will push through tomorrow morning and winds will increase out of the southwest during the day Thursday. At the surface, temperatures as I stated are below freezing, but at 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere, temperatures are near freezing and the layer will continue to rapidly get warmer over the next several hours. When you have a layer of warmer air aloft, it is called inversion.
By around 6:00 AM, it will b inthe teens and 20's at the surface, but at 5,000 feet up, temperatures will likely be in the 50's and 60's. As the day progresses on Thursday, the sun, and southerly winds will allow the warm air to blast down to the surface. This will allow temperatures to be in the 50's and 60's for highs Thursday with 70's not far away. The record high for tomorrow was 67 degrees set back in 1963, and I think there is a very good chance that Kansas City ties or breaks that record Thursday. I am going for a high of 68 degrees in Kansas City.
I think Friday will be the warmest day of this warm up. Highs will likely push into the 60's and 70's, andI think more record will be broken again. Saturday will also be very warm, similar to Friday, with highs in the 60's and 70's.
There will be a high fire danger Friday with the strong winds,warm temperatues, and dry air. I am expecting the SPC to issue a Red Flag Warning sometime tomorrow.
Now with these Spring like temperatures - Is there a chance of Spring like thunderstorms? I think there is a chance Sunday into Monday.
A storm system is expected to eject into the plains Sunday into Monday. Take a look at the map below:
As you can see n the 120 hour 6z GFS 500 mb forecast, the storm in the plains will become very negatively tilted, and likely produce a band of showers and thunderstorms, and there is a slight chance for severe weather. This storm should break our prolonged dry spell which has now been going on for 39 day. It hasnt been completely dry, but only 0.05 inches has fallen at KCI.
There will be a more substantial storm Wednesday night into Thursday which may bring us our next chance of snow.
Alex Pickman

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Arctic blast...Big warm up!

An significant arctic front pushed through the area Monday night. There was some precipitation aloft last night, but the air was just too dry for most of the precipitation to reach the ground. Now lows this morning bottomed out in the single digits with a light breeze making wind chills drop into the -5 degree range.

Highs today will only be in the teens and 20's with abundant sunshine. Then later tonight and tomorrow morning, high pressure will settle right over top of us and temperatures will likely be even cold with lows Wednesday morning in the single digits and some below zero.

Wednesday will be a transition day with temperatures Wednesday night primarily remaining in the 20's. A warm front will push through late Wednesday ngiht and the area will rebound into the 50's and 60's. Then on Friday the warm air really surges in and highs Friday will be in the 60's and low 70's around the area.

Friday will likely kick off the more active part of the pattern with a series of storms off the west coast and ejecting into the plains early next week. I think our dry spell will end with some significant precipitation nearby. I think it will remain all rain though.

I will have a new blog tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Brief cool down...then spring returns again!

All January long, the precipitation was not the main charactoristic. In fact, precipitation was not even a charactoristic in January with Kansas City recording their second driest January on record (0.05"). The main charactoristic for the month and all season long has been the big temperature swings. This has and wil be the case for this week.

Yesterday Kansas City and St. Joseph both broke their record high with temperatures in the low 70's. Now today, Febuary 1st, temperatures are cooling, but are still well above average with highs in the mid to upper 40's and 50's not far away.

Then of course all season long when we get a big warm up, we get a big cool down, and temperatures Monday night will drop into the teens, and will likely not get out of the 20's in most locations on Tuesday, and lows Tuesday night will likely be in the single digits.

Then just as you think Winter is back, here comes another Spring tease this week with a ridge building through the weekend. Wednesday..30's and 40's. Thursday and Friday...50's and 60's. Saturday and Sunday...40's and 50's. There may also be a couple disturbences pushing through this weekend and I think thunderstorms may be a possibility.

Dont get used to these warm temperatures as Winter is about to make a big return as we head into Feburary. Arctic air is going to reload with vigorous force, likely stronger than any other time this season and we will get blasted by some more major arctic blasts. There will still be frequent Spring apperences as the temperature swings contiue through the rest of the Winter season.

I will have a new blog tomorrow night.

Alex Pickman