Monday, December 14, 2009

Arctic blast

Another arctic front is pushing through the area this morning and temperatures are going to drop significantly throughout the day. Take a look at the current surface map where I drew in the fronts:

Temperatures just ahead of the front are near 40 degrees or warmer. This will be very diceiving today as this front is going to blast through. For emample, it is close to 40 degrees in Kansas City right now (37 degrees), but by noon, i think temperatures will have crashed into the upper teens with norwest winds and maybe a few snowflakes. It is going to be like this all around the area. A few snowflakes will be possible once the front passes through, but the biggest change will be the temperatures. Tuesday morning is going to be extremely cold with low in the single digits, and maybe below zero across northern Missouri where the snow pack is still in place.

Highs on Tuesday may not even make it out of the teens in some spots. If your someone looking for a warmer day, it looks like Thursday will be your day with low 50's possible before more cold air spills in.

I will have an update later today as the arctic air pours into the area.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Major Winter Storm!

Snow developed across northern Kansas and Missouri last night giving areas north of Kansas City between 1 and 3 inches of snow. This is in association to a very potent winter storm that will affect the entire region through Wednesday morning. The snow is still falling this morning and it could get heavy at times today. There is one problem though. The storm did take a more southerly track, which is good, but the WAA (Warm Air Advection) is prety strong, so it will be difficult to determine where the snow/mix/rain line sets up. There will likely be a break across northern Missouri for a couple hours between 10:00 AM and Noon. Here is the problem. Another batch of precipitation will push back in, but in what form will it be? The map below show where I think that line will set up:

As you can see, the pink shaded area is a Winter Storm Warning, the red to the north is a Blizzard Warning, and the blue to the southis a Winter Weather Advisory. The blue line I drew in is where I think the rain/snow line will set up. Areas to the north and west of it will be snow and areas to the south will be a mix when this next batch of precipitation moves through. I think that rain/snow line will push back to the south this afternoon and areas around St. Joseph should switch back over to snow. It will be a battle trying to stay snow, but the cold air will win out. A band of snow will form this evening and push through possibly dumping 1-2 inches and the models are indicating one last band forming later around midnight that may also bring 1-2 more inches in some locations.

Here is my total snowfall forecast by Wednesday morning:

There are Blizzard Warnings across Iowa to the Missouri border. A surface low will have explosive development and will be very strong later tonight. This will create very tight pressure gradients and winds will likely gust near 50 mph at times and I think the Blizzard Warning will push south to at least highway 36. The winds will allow the arctic air to rush in and there will be near whiteout conditions with all of the blowing snow. I wouldnt be surprised to get reports of snow drifts in feet to the north.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will likely be near or below zero and only warmng up in the teens. This will be the same for Thursday with lows to -10 in some locations Thursday morning. So it is going to get cold. Our next slight chance of precipitation will be Saturday.

I will have a new blog entry probably Friday as I will b busy the next couple of days.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Decieving sun...Snow chances

Temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 20's around the area with windchill between 10 and 15 degrees. There is not much of a wind this morning, but it is defintely cold. One thing that you might notice through this morning is that it will be sunny and actually look fairly nice outside. This is not going to be the case as I mentioned above. It is cold. I think the winds will increase slightly this afternoon with highs in the low 30's around the area. Clouds will roll in later this afternoon and dont be surprised if there is a light snow shower or scattered flurried through the afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will dip in the mid teens with flurries possible around the area.

I will update this later

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Warmer weather has come to an uprupt end

Well the warmer weather we have been experiencing for a litle while now has cometo an en early this morning. Yesterday was the last warm day for quite a while. The strongest cold front of the season blasted through early this morning and much colder air has spilled into the region. Take a look at the current surface map below:

It is mostly cloudy this morning and I expect this hold the temperatures down until the clouds clear later in the day. I think highs today will range from the mid 30's across central and eastrn Missouri where I expect the clouds to hang around and upper 30's to low 40's across western Missouri where the sun should come out as the clouds press southeast.

It will be cold today, but the main thing I think you will notice is the strong northerly winds between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to 30. This makes it feel close to 10 degrees colder than it actually is. Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid 20's around the area.

This cold weather is going to continue for the next few weeks as the amplified pattern we saw earlier that brought the coldest first half of October on record is returning and the weather is going to get active very soon. It is likely going to snow sometime between Sunday and Tuesday as warm advection condition set up and there will likely be some accumulations, but I will focus on that later as it approaches.

Alex Pickman