Saturday, March 20, 2010

Heavy bands of snow

Quick early morning update**

I did not have time to post a new entry during the day today, but I am back from class and it looks like this snowstorm is really ramping up as the cold air pours in. Take a look at the current surface map below:

Temperatures are crashing behind the cold front down into the low 30's and upper 20's with rain changing into heavy bands of snow. The rain/snow line is from about the Mound City, KS area northeast to the NE corner of Missouri. The swath of snow actually extends from Lubbock, TX all the way into Michigan. The NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings for southern Kansas and southwestern Missouri with a Winter Weather Advisory from Kansas City northward.

Snow totals will likey between 3 and 10 inches with the heavier totals occurring the further south you go. There may be some areas the recieve 15+ inches of snow! This is part one of this storm with part 2 coming tomorrow, and maybe even a stronger part 3 coming in tomorrow night. I dont have time to get into a lot of detail right now, but I will have a new blog up tomorrow morning and I will get into much more detail.

This is likey the grand fanale to record setting Winter. Look for a new entry tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, March 18, 2010

New possible weekend solution

The computer models continue to struggle to come to an agreement as to the track of this weekend storm. One thing most are agreeing on is that the low will track southeast out of the northwest and begin to close off as it approaches the area. What they are having the most trouble with is when the storm begins its northeastern turn. Take a look at the 06z GFS 500 mb map below:

One thing to note is that this storm hasnt even started forming yet. You cant even see it on the satelite images. As you can see above, the storm just starts forming tonight in the northwest, but the big question is where will it go from there? Take a look at the next map:

This run has the strong low closing off and tracking deep into Oklahoma, if this storm takes this track, then locations in northeastern Kansas and northern and central Missouri will se little if any snow at all due to warm air wrapping into the system. All the storm needs to do is track just a bit further to the north and the locations I just mentioned will likely get one of the biggest snowstorms they have ever seen. I can see scearios leaving just a dusting or scenarios leaving the area with major accumulations.

There a still several questions with this system as to the track, strength, and precipitation, but it is likely going to be a very wet storm. How much of it will be snow? I am trying to figure this out as weget closer to the weekend, and there may be a huge snow shield, but remember this storm hasnt even formed yet! A lot still can and will change, we are still about 30 hours away. So the question still remains...Snow or no snow?

Until then enjoy the warm weather today with highs in the 60's and calm winds with clear skies.

I will have a new entry soon.

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

March 17...Major snowstorm in the brewing?

Happy St. Patricks Day. It has been a couple months since I posted an entry due to me leaving Baisc Training, but you can expect entries on a regular basis now. A weak disturbence is moving through the area right now and it is producing some showers this morning with even a couple snowflakes mixed in. The good news is that this wont be an all day event as skies should begin to clear in the afternoon. This will lead to a cool, partly cloudy afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40's.

Your probably wondering where Spring went with this cool weather, but it is about to return....briefly. Take a look at the map below:

There is storm system just starting to develop Thursday in the northwest and way out ahead of it, a ridge is building just behind the deep trough in the Eastern States. This ride is going to lead to to highs in the low to mid 60's Thursday and Friday. Im still not sure about Fridays high temperatures though as a strong cold front will be moving into the area in association to our developing storm, but as of right now I am going to go with 60's for highs.

The cold front will likely push through Friday evening and bring with it some rain and thunderstorms out ahead of the front. Behind will be some cold air and the may change over to snow. Right now the models are varying quite a bit. Some with no snow, some with a little, and even a major snowstorm. I can see very probable solutions leading to no snow, or a significant amount. This system is still 2 days away and a lot could still change and will, but will it lead to snow or no snow? I will try to answer this tomorrow, but this will likely be a "nowcasting" event.

I will have a new blog entry tomorrow regarding this system.

Alex Pickman