Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Tuesday late night update

As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, tonight would be favorable for more radiational cooling. You dont need to look at a weather map, just go outside and the winds are calm, the sky is clear, and the air is chilly. Take a look at the current (3:30 AM) surface map below:

Temperatures are currently in the 40's, abd this will be the case overnight with low to mid 40's along and south of highway 36 and near 40 to the north of highway 36. There is a warm front to west that I drew in which is in association with our next storm system. I will talk about the next storm, our chance of rain, and any severe weather potential in Wednesday's blog.

Alex Pickman

Monday, September 28, 2009

Windy tonight

The front that pushed through the area yesterday has moved well east and south of us. Now we are experiencing very gusty winds and cooler temperatures today. Lows this morning were in the mid to upper 40's. I think this afternoon, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60's with low 60's in northeastern Missouri. Any 70's will reside in Kansas and southern Missouri. There is already pretty strong winds this morning and it will remain windy through the afternoon.

After a cold that strong, the skies should remain cloudless and this will be one determining factor on how cold we get tonight. With the strong upper level low pressing to the east, the strong winds will move along with it. This will put us in favorable conditions for some radiational cooling. Radiational cooling is when you have clear skies, calm winds, and preferably high pressure overhead. This allows the heat built up during the day, to be released from the earth into the atmosphere.

I dont think the winds will go completely calm, so temperatures could be just just a bit warmer by a degree or to, but low to mid 40's are likely south of highway 36 and upper 30's are possible north of highway 36. This will likely be the case for Tuesday night as well. I will have a new blog Tuesday and discuss our next chance of rain.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Cold rain chance

We were out ahead of the cold front today and highs topped out in the low to mid 80's around the area and there were 90's out in western Kansas. The warm weather was caused by gusty southwesterly winds out ahead of a strong cold front.

The front pushed through the area earlier in the evening and as a result the winds switched to the northwest and the dewpoints are dropping. The front swept through dry but will be answered with some cooler air spilling into the region. Take a look at the current surface map below:

Lows tonight should be in the low to mid 40's with clear skies. It will be a cool crisp Fall morning on Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 60's with gusty northwest winds. High pressure will control the region Monday night and we will experience a classic setup for some radiational cooling. Skies will be clear and the winds will be calm. This will allow all of the heat from the earths surface to escape into the atmosphere and as a result, temperatures will cool into the upper 30's north of highway 36 to the low to mid 40's to the south.

Take a look at the GFS forcast for Thursday:

This forecast is showing a strong upper level low moving into the Plains. I think this has the potential to produce some severe weather, but a lot of things have together. Right now, the main ingredient I am worrying about is moisture. It is hard to get a decent amout of moisture this time of year, but it is possible. Right now I would say showers and thunderstorms are likely, but will we see any severe weather? I will try to get that answered in the coming days.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Morning rain and strong cold front

Well a decent band of rain swept through the area between midnight and 8:00 Am this morning. Rain totals ranged from tenth to three quarters of an inch around the area with the heavier rain totals around the St. Joseph/Maryville areas and in eastern Kansas. The rain is still scattered this morning and is pressing to the east. It is being caused by a strong upper level low that is spinning by the region.

We will be on the back side of it today, so expect a cool, cloudy day with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's. The sun should try to break throughout the day, but I think the clouds will dominate.

By Sunday, a very strong cold front will enter the picture. We will be ahead of it on Sunday, and this will cause the southerly winds to increase. Highs should shoot into the middle 80's. I has been a long time since we have seen high temperatures this warm and it should be a nice but windy day Sunday. After we warm up, the strong cold front will likely push through Sunday night and draw in some cool, gusty late September air. The front will move by dry, but we will likey see some of the coolest lows of the season so far Monday morning. I think temperatures will drop into the low 40's across the areas with cooler temperatures possible across northern Missouri.

I will have a new blog Sunday about the front and our next chance of rain.

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Very nice Thursday

Today will be a very nice day with highs topping out in the low to mid 70's around the area with partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will drop in to the low to mid 50's with partly cloudy skies.

There is not much to talk about right now as the weather is very calm. So far this September, Chillicothe has only had one day with rainfall, and that was on Monday, so we had a pretty long dry spell.

I havnt been able to update the blog for a little while because I have very busy recently, but expct a new one tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Nice weekend...Next rain chance

I havnt been able to blog in a while since I have been pretty busy lately, but thee really hasnt been much happening as we are in a dry and cool weather pattern. Temperatures should be right near average this week with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. There will likely be some cloud cover from time to time. I think there may be a couple showers later this afternoon, but the chance of getting rain in your backyard is likely less the 2 percent.

Sunday will be much of the same with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. Take a look at the 6z GFS 500 mb map below:

There is two upper level lows; the one I drew in Texas, and there is another one over around Eastern Montana over the upper Plains that will affect our weather on Monday. The low to our south will have to be watched as it could move north enough to bring some locations in the area some showers. The chance is around 40 or 50 percent from Kansas City and points southward. the chance of rain will increase the further south you are. I dont think it will be a widespread event by any means, but some showers are possible.

Now with cloud cover and maybe a few showers, temperatures on Monday will likely be in the low to upper 70's across the area. The rest of the week after Monday looks to be right around average with highs near 80 in most locations and no chance of widespread rain anytime soon.

Ill try to get a new blog in tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Sunday weather

We had some dense fog this morning as temperatures overnight cooled neat or at the dewpoint temperatures and winds were calm. The fog and low clouds stuck around for a little while this morning, as a result the NWS had unday a Dense Fog Advisory last night and this morning, but they should clear out by this afternoon. The sun should come out later in the day and highs should warm into the mid to upper 70's.

You guessed it, expect the same thing tonight with calm winds, temperatures cooling to the dewpoint, and plent of low level moisture. The NWS should expand the Dense Fog Advisory as I think the fog will be thicker than last night. There will be some travel headaches early Monday, but the good news is its Labor Day, so many people dont have to work.

I will have a new blog Monday morning with some pictures of the fog at my house.

Alex Pickman