Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Is it Feburary or April?...Thunderstorms?

Well highs today were in the upper 20's and low to mid 30's around the area after a frigid morning with lows in the single digits and some below zero. Tonight, temperatures at the surface will not drop much from where they are now in the teens and 20's.
The arctic high that was overhead early this mornig and last night is pressing southeast, and with clockwise rotation, a warm front will push through tomorrow morning and winds will increase out of the southwest during the day Thursday. At the surface, temperatures as I stated are below freezing, but at 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere, temperatures are near freezing and the layer will continue to rapidly get warmer over the next several hours. When you have a layer of warmer air aloft, it is called inversion.
By around 6:00 AM, it will b inthe teens and 20's at the surface, but at 5,000 feet up, temperatures will likely be in the 50's and 60's. As the day progresses on Thursday, the sun, and southerly winds will allow the warm air to blast down to the surface. This will allow temperatures to be in the 50's and 60's for highs Thursday with 70's not far away. The record high for tomorrow was 67 degrees set back in 1963, and I think there is a very good chance that Kansas City ties or breaks that record Thursday. I am going for a high of 68 degrees in Kansas City.
I think Friday will be the warmest day of this warm up. Highs will likely push into the 60's and 70's, andI think more record will be broken again. Saturday will also be very warm, similar to Friday, with highs in the 60's and 70's.
There will be a high fire danger Friday with the strong winds,warm temperatues, and dry air. I am expecting the SPC to issue a Red Flag Warning sometime tomorrow.
Now with these Spring like temperatures - Is there a chance of Spring like thunderstorms? I think there is a chance Sunday into Monday.
A storm system is expected to eject into the plains Sunday into Monday. Take a look at the map below:
As you can see n the 120 hour 6z GFS 500 mb forecast, the storm in the plains will become very negatively tilted, and likely produce a band of showers and thunderstorms, and there is a slight chance for severe weather. This storm should break our prolonged dry spell which has now been going on for 39 day. It hasnt been completely dry, but only 0.05 inches has fallen at KCI.
There will be a more substantial storm Wednesday night into Thursday which may bring us our next chance of snow.
Alex Pickman


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home