Thursday, February 26, 2009

Thunderstorms...cold fronts...snow?...Updated!

Well the arctic front has pushed well through and temperatures are crashing into the 20's and teens are entering northwestern Missouri. I think temperatures will be primarily in the teens from north of a line from Kansas City northward. Top that with winds 15 to 35 mph, and wind chills will be in the single digits in many spots over night.

What a difference from the 60's earlier today! Now what about Friday night an Saturday? Well that data is insisting that we will see some accumulating snow, and right now it still looks like 1-3 inches with the highest totals east of the Missouri/Kansas state line as the upper low dives just southwest of Kansas City.

Right now our storm is in Idaho, and when it gets here, the arctic air will be in place with temperatures in the 20's. This may allow everything that falls from start to end to be all snow, which just means more accumulation. If I were to give a snow forecast now, I would say maybe 1-2 inches in Kansas City, and 1-3 inches east of there toward Chillicothe, to Kirksville, and south of there.

I will have a snowfall forecast tomorrow, as right it is still too early to tell. If you are not a snow lover, the good news for you is that I am expecting another big warm up almost all of next week! If you are a snow lover, enjoy it while it lasts as it could be the last accumulating snow, but maybe March will produce?

I will have a snowfall forecast tomorrow afternoon.

Previous entry below


Take a look at the surface map from 3:00 PM:

Notice the teens and 20's entering Nebraska behind an arctic cold front associated with a clipper system well to the north. Also take note of the very hot weather in Texas with low to mid 90's! This is a perfect enviornment for storms to form. They thrive on these temperature contrasts. And you can see the surface storm in northern Missouri, which produced some showers and thunderstorms this morning, and some were marginally severe with some hail. They formed along and behind a warm front that brough 60 degree weather back into the area.

As the surface cold front pushed through the storms congealed into more of a line. And a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued as some of the storms turned severe with strong winds, and maybe some hail. The cold front has rapidly pushed southeast and so did the thunderstorms. ow the arctic front associated with an Alberta clipper is moving through the area.

Take a look at the current surface map below:

Thunderstorms will continue to role through southeast Missouri, and a few may be severe. For the rest of the area, the arctic front means a cold push of air into the region. Lows Friday morning will be in the teens and 20's before warming into the 30's with 40's southeast of Kansas City. The cold air will really push in Friday night as high pressure approaches, and lows will dip into the teens Friday night.

With the arctic air in place Friday night and Saturday, and a disturbence rolling through, this will make a favorable enviornment for snow - possibly accumulating snow. Take a look at the 500 mb forecast for Saturday morning:

The disturbence will drop in from the northwest, and with it, likely a swath of snow, that right now looks to bring 1-3 inches of snow.

I will have an update tomorrow as the snow probabilities will likely increase.

Alex Pickman


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