Monday, March 30, 2009

Thunderstorms pushing through

It is a warm blustery night out there after highs in the 60's around the area. All this warmth and wind is out ahead of the next cold front which is going to push through late tonight. As I mentioned this morning, showers and thunderstorms would be possible along the front tonight between 10:00 PM and 1:00 AM and we have just that with a "weakening" band of showers and thunderstorms entering Western Missouri.

Take a look at the radar below:

There will likely be an hour or two of some rain, heavy at times, then cold front pushes through late with a cold blast of air back into the 30's by Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday will only rebound into the 40's with increasing westerly winds up to 20-40 mph. Tomorrow is going to feel pretty cold with the windchill.

There are two more storms I am monitoring in the next 7 days. Both of which have a slight potential to bring us some snowflakes. I will go more in depth on the next storm tomorrow after this passes by.

Alex Pickman

Monday weather

It will be aprtly cloudy to sunny today with winds gusting 10 to 30 mph out of the southeast. With the strong southery winds highs should make it into the 50's and 60's around the area. This warm up is in response to our next storm system, and by Monday night, a cld front will begin to push through the area, and likely trigger some showers and thunderstorms. But with the atmosphere lacking abundant moisture, severe weather really isnt a problem. The cold front will be pushing through the area between 9:00 PM and 1:00 AM.

Tuesday morning lows will be very cool, in the 30's. There is another storm I am watching closely for Thursday that has the potential to bring us some more snowflakes.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Updated snowfall forecast.....Updated

What a day we had Saturday with all the anticipation with this storm and it lets us down. So what happened? Well the first problem came Friday night with warm air at the surface trying to nose it way up from the southeast. This created a concearn with not allowing the rain to changeover to snow. There was also a warm layer of air in the middle layers of the atmosphere. This warm layer of air continued through the day Saturday keeping the precipitation in the form of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. I know many of you were thinking would it ever changeover to all snow.

Finally by 3:00 PM the warm layer began to cool and a heavy band of snow developed around the Kansas City area. It trained over the same area, and dumped 3-5 inches of snow in Olathe, KS. The band of snow pressed eastward and eventually weakened, and fell apart.

Here is the visible satelite image from this morning (borrowed from NBC Action

That is all snow from Oklahoma through Missouri. The area of snow in Central Kansas measured up to 10-20 inches with drifts measured in feet!

Now that this storm is past up, we need to turn our attention to the next storm for Monday. A cold front will approach the area, and showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday night, but with the lack of moisture there really isnt a severe threat. highs Monday should make it into the 50's and low 60's before the cold front pushes through overnight. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 30's and likely only rebound into the 40's for high Tuesday.

There is a chance of some more wintery precipitation sometime Thursday with another system approaching and cold air in place.

I will have a new blog Monday afternoon.

Alex Pickman


Im a little late getting this in as I said I would have it in the morning, but this is a very complicated forecast. So here is my updated snowfall forecast between now (1:00 PM) through noon Sunday:

This is completely different from my previous snowfall forecast. I was expecting a changeover to snow by now, but we cannot get rid of this stubborn warm layer in middle layers of the atmosphere. This is causing the precipitation to fall as rain, freezing rain, and sleet. I am expecting the warm layer to cool to below freezing between 3 and 5 PM, and some heavy snowbands to develop.

Depending on how much moisture will be left, and when the changeover will occur, there is a chance of some significant accumulations. It looks like the heaviest band will setup near KC and likely train for a few hours. As you can see in the snowfall forecast, there could be a band of 2-5 inches. I think there could be a couple isolated areas of up to 6-8 inches.

Travel conditions will likely become hazardous later this afternoon with the freezing rain/sleet, changing over to snow.

If this warm layer of air would of cooled later Friday night or early this morning, this would and should of been a monster of a snowstorm. It was a monster over central and western Kansas where 10-20 inches of snopw fell and with winds 20-40 mph, the drifts were measured in feet!

I will have an update sometime Sunday.

Alex Pickman

Friday, March 27, 2009

When will it snow and how much?

This storm is getting very tricky to forecast as it is just too far south, and warm air is pushing in right now. take a look at the surface map below:

With the low in eastern Oklahoma, the counter clockwise flow is trying to draw in some warmer air. It is very slowly pressing northwest. If this continues, then we likely NOT see a changeover from rain/sleet to snow in the morning. It will likely wait till 10:00 AM to 1:00PM before the changeover occurs. This would help keep some of the snow totals down.

Another problem is the storm is just too far south. In any other storm, a storm tracking this far south wouldnt have a heavy snowband in our area, and maybe not even snow at all. But this is a potent and stregthening upper low. The circulation is so large we will likely be on the edge of the comma. The more southern track is going to shift the snow totals to the south a little bit.Add Image

With that said here is my snowfall forecast through midnight Saturday:

I have the heaviest of snow postioned from around Pleasenton, KS through central Missouri.This is not to say that areas northwest of the heavy snow band cant get in on any of that. If we can get a quick changeover to snow, then the totals will expand.

I will have an updated snowfall forecast in the morning. Until then we will have to deal with some rain, frezing rain, and sleet tonight. So conditions will likely be slick in the morning. Expect a change over to snow sometime late morning or early afternoon as of right now.

This is very very difficult to track, but I am trying my best to give you a reliable forecast.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Evening update

It is still looking good for heavy snow around the area sometime late Friday night through Saturday. The accumulation totals will depend on the track of the low. If it trends a bit further north, then areas around KC will be in the bullseye for possibly 6-12+ inches! On the contrary, the storm can easily trend further south, and leave us with no snowflakes at all.

Right now it looks like areas around Pleasenton, KS may see the most snow in our area. There are still a lot of questions with this storm, mainly on its track, and it is still 30-36 hours away.

There is a chance of some showers tonight, but they are struggling to pass I-70.

We will start out as rain sometime Friday afternoon or evening, and then change to snow possibly as early as Friday night or Saturday. This is also another big factor on how much snow you get. So if you are hoping for a big snow, you want the storm to take a perfect track depending on where you live, and a quick changeover to snow.

Once again, this storm is still 30-36 hours out, so I will have an update Friday morning with the latest data.

Alex Pickman

Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for most of Kansas extending northeast into Missouri. Take a look at the map below:

The blue is the Winter Storm Watch, where there could be significant snow accumulation depending on the track of the mail upper level low.
This is the first Winter Storm Watch for areas around Kansas City all Winter and now its Spring!
There is still a lot of questions regarding this storm, but I beginning to get a better feel on it as the models are starting to agree with each other. Take a look at the 18z GFS below:

This is close to being a perfect track for places near Kansas City and eastward to get a major snowstorm, but it is still a few days out and the track is going to change some.
I will have a new blog around 10:00 tonight.
Alex Pickman

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Getting colder...Winter Storm?!

Well the cold front has een presing through the area this morning and afternoon, and temperatures are falling back in the 40's and even 30's. Take a look at the surface map below:

Rain will continue along the cold front with the potential for some severe weather with the main threats dmaging winds and hail. Once again, flooding will be a concearn today. The rain will shut off after the cold front pushes through and temperatures will drop into the 30's by Wednesday morning.

The day Wednesday should remain dry with highs making it in the upper 40's to mid 50's arounf the area. There is a chance of some rain Wednesday night as another stronger storm system begins to affect us. The rain chance for Wednesday night right now is only about a 20 or 30 percent.

The higher precipitation chances dont come in until Friday and Saturday. There is even potential Friday night or Saturday of rain tapping into colder air, and changing to snow and there is a chance of a major snowstorm nearby. There are many questions about this storm and it is still several days out. For us to get a snowstorm, the system would have to take a perfect track and tap into enough cold air. Right now, the cold air is in the forecast, so we will have to see what happens in the coming days. I am not excited with this system yet.

Alex Pickman

Monday, March 23, 2009

Thunderstorms tonight - Severe potential

I havnt blogged in a while, and I meant to a couple days ago to discuss the storm system that is affecting us now. So lets take a look at the current surface map below:

Winds are blasting out of the south at 20 to 40 plus mph!

Earlier today, there was a dry line out ahead of the cold front in Kansas, and thunderstorms began to fire along this boundary. Now the cold front has caught up with the dry line, and has became just a cold front as you can see above. The SPC has the area under a slight risk for severe weather, and a moderate risk in southeastern Kansas.

The main threats from the storms would be hail, strong winds, and heavy rains. There is a slight tornado risk, but it is very slim as the ingredients just arent quite there. Thunderstorms will congeal into a solid line and I think there will be some severe weather reports, but the main threat with this is excessive rainfall as the ingredients are there for training echos. This line will likely be slow moving and train over the same areas. if you get under this line of storms, you may recieve 1-2 inches of rain.

By early Tuesday morning, the line of thunderstorms will be across central Missouri, and continue pressing eastward. The cold front pushes through in the afternoon and temperatures will drop noticably this afternoon and overnight.

Here is a brief description of what I am expecting overnight, and Tuesday morning:

Overnight tonight - Showers and thunderstorms likely late, spreading slowly fom east to west. Strong winds possible in storms. Heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible. Lows in the 50's with winds strong out of the south at 20 to 40+ mph.

Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms likely, ending before afternoon with locally heavy rain possible. Temperatures in the 50's and 60's in the morning before dropping into the 40's and 30's in the afternoon and overnight as the front passes through.

After we get this storm over with, there is another much stronger storm ahowing up towards the end of the week, and tere may be some cold air for the system to tap into. There will likely be a snowstorm near our area!

I will have an update tomorrow:

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Wednesday cold fron...Gary Lezak's in-depth Spring forecast!

A cold front will push through Wednesday morning, and temperatures will fall slowly throughout the day. Temperatures in the morning will likely be in the 50's and 60's, before falling to the 40's by evening, and by Thursday morning, lows will be in the 30's. So, this is not a strong front by any means, but it will cooler.

I am expecting the front to push through dry, but I wouldnt rule out a sprinkle or shower. Thursday should rebound into the 50's for highs.

Now onto the big part of this entry - The 2009 Spring forecast issued by Gary Lezak (NBC Action News Chief Meteorologist) based on his theory, the LRC or Lezak's Recurring Cycle! Here are the main components of the LRC:

**A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.

**Identifying the cycle length is critical to making accurate predictions on when storm systems are likely to hit a local area.

**“Long term” long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant features can be used to identify where storm systems will strengthen and weaken most often throughout the year.

**There is a pattern. It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

Now here is the detailed forecast!

The “long term” long-wave troughs and ridges that set up last October and November still exist today as we move into the spring months. By July and August this weather pattern (LRC 2008-2009) will finally break down and go through a transition. Between now and mid-summer we see a continuation of the same pattern that is cycling around every 60 days, give or take a few days. This has been a unique weather pattern and some spots have had many storm systems, like Chicago and Boston, whereas there are other locations that have been missed almost every time, like Denver and Dodge City. Will this continue to be the case as we move into spring? Let’s look at the dominant features that have created the wet, dry, cold and warm scenarios during the past few months.

The features that dominated the winter will continue, but there could be some differences in how they affect what we experience at the surface. Forecasting these surface reflections is a rather difficult task and this is what we are attempting to do in this spring forecast:

Dominant feature #1:

As discussed in the winter forecast there has been one strong “long term” long-wave trough extending from Hudson Bay south through the Great Lakes (eastern Michigan) down into the Alabama/Georgia line. This is a major feature in the cycling pattern, as it has really been the dominant feature returning many times through each cycle. There will be some subtle changes to this trough as the jet stream retreats, the temperature contrasts weaken, and summer approaches. The cold fronts will begin to weaken and eventually end up stalling somewhere from the mid-Atlantic states back into the plains. Where these fronts stall will be a critical factor into forecasting exactly where the heaviest precipitation will fall this spring and into early summer. This map below shows the "long term" long-wave trough as it will be lifting farther north as we move closer to summer:

Weaker feature #2

In the winter forecast we discussed a second “long term” long-wave trough that was located somewhere in the western plains. But, after going through the past few cycles of this years LRC we have noticed that it really isn’t a western plains trough, but rather a stretched out positively tilted trough in the mean stretching from the Pacific Northwest southeast into the plains before it phases with dominant feature #1 above. As the mean “long term” long-wave eastern trough weakens and shifts north there will be a strong potential of this secondary feature becoming a somewhat bigger force than it was during the winter months. This energy source was responsible for 13 rather strong surface lows tracking across the central plains states during the winter, many of which went through this region and didn’t produce much, unless you were in the Dakota’s that got the benefit of the center of these trough tracking south of this region. What will this mean for this spring forecast? This is another big challenge for this spring forecast. The same anomalies that happened during the winter may shift a bit as we move through the spring. But, this shift should only be slight.

Feature #3:

There has been a mean “long term” long-wave ridge over western Canada north of Washington and Idaho extending into northwest Canada and it has directed Gulf of Alaska energy southeast under this feature into the western states, and there is a “long term” long-wave ridge near Southern California that tends to drift off shore at times, but it has still been one of the reasons for some dryness out west.

Feature #4:

As described in the winter forecast there has been some splitting of the flow through the western states but very rarely has any organized storm system made it into the Rocky Mountain states and this is one of the reasons Denver, CO had their first February in their recorded history with no measurable snow.

This map below shows the weak split flow that has been evident through much of this pattern. When the eastern trough weakens this has been the dominant flow allowing for some storm systems to break through into the western states. Some of these storm systems have been quite strong affecting the northern plains, but most of them have been positively tilted and somewhat disorganized. When this pattern develops within the 60 day cycle severe weather outbreaks will be possible through the plains states. But, this is not the major part of this pattern and we expect severe weather to be much less active than in 2008 when Kansas lead the nation in severe weather reported and number of tornadoes.

The above map shows how complex this weather pattern really is and how difficult it will be to forecast this springs anamolies. When we have had the split flow, energy coming into the plains almost always goes into confluent flow as it approaches the mean trough through the Great Lakes states. I drew this map to show the likely flow for a two week stretch in April and again sometime in June before summer settles in. This part of the pattern could bring some of the drier areas some rain before summer arrives.

This next two maps are our rainfall and temperature outlooks for spring 2009:

Monday, March 16, 2009

Very warm St. Patrick's Day!

Highs today topped out in the 70's around the area with abundant sunshine after a cool, moist, and quite foggy morning. With southerly winds Tuesday, highs should be in the 70's and low 80's around the area.

Here are my forecast highs for some cities around the area:

Marceline, MO - 76

Chillicothe, MO - 77

St. Joseph, MO - 77

KCI - 80

Sedalia, MO - 81

Lawrence, KS - 82

The past week has had a slow warming trend, and the longest warming treand all year. Lets take a look at Kansas City International (KCI). On the 11th, the high was only 30 degrees. By the 12th, it was 37 degrees. On the 13th, it warmed to 47 degrees. On the 14th, highs topped out at 57 degrees. On the 15th, temperatures rose to 60 degrees, and today, highs topped out at 73 degrees. The forecast high for KCI tomorrow is around 80 degrees.

Tuesday will be the last day of the warming trend as a cold front is expected to push through the area Wednesday morning. The good news about the cold front is that it is not strong like we have seen all season. It will cool us down 15 to 20 degrees, but it wont be frigid. So temperatures during the morning on Wednesday will be in the 60's, and by Thursday morning, lows will drop into the low to mid 30's.

Thursday should rebound into the 50's and another warming trend will begin on Friday with 70's returning by the begining of next week.

I will have Gary Lezak's Spring forecast posted tomorrow. This is a must see!!

Alex Pickman

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Here comes the warm air!

After a cool morning, highs managed to top out in the upper 50's and 60's around the area today with. There is a weak upper level low moving through the area and with limited moisture, only a few showers formed. The chance of sprinkles and isolated showers will continue overnight, but there will be nothing heavy developing.

Skies will clear tomorrow morning, with southerly winds, highs will push into the low to mid 70's. The big push of warm air comes in on Tuesday (St. Patrick's Day). With winds out of the southwest, we will be well into the 70's with low 80's from Kansas City southward. The record high at KCI is 82 degrees. Im not sure if KCI will break that high, but it will be close with a forecasted high around 80 degrees.

A cold front will push through Tuesday night, but dont expect it to get "cold" as it should only keep highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the 50's, and possibly upper 40's on Thursday. Then it looks like we start another warming trend for next weekend.

I will have another blog soon.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Taste of Spring!

The next 7-10 days will make you think Spring is here to stay as we will be near to well above average. Warm air surging northward across the western plains is pressing eastward and we will be in the 50's across the area this weekend with some 60's nearby on Sunday. But the big warm up comes Monday and Tuesday.

The warm air will surge into the area on Monday and highs will be generally in the low to mid 70's. On Tuesday a cold front will be approaching and out ahead of that, temperatures will soar into the 70's and even some low 80's likely.

The cold front will push through Tuesday eveing, but it should only drop highs for Wednesday and Thursday back to near average with 50 degree reading. Then it looks like possibly another warm up next week.

I will have a new blog soon.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Cold today...warm up?

Take a look at the current surface map below:

It has been a cold day with highs topping out only in the 30's. The reason for this cold day is the clockwise flow around high pressure to our northeast. High clouds will likely spread into the area late this afternoon and overnight and lows will dip into the 20's by Friday morning. Tonight will be a transitioning period as the high continues moving to the east, and winds begin to switch to the south on Friday.

Highs on Friday will top out in the 40's in most locations, kicking off a slow, but impressive warm up. I think by Monday, highs will be topping out in the 70's in many locations. And by Tuesday, St. Patrick's day, highs will likely be in the 70's with 80's nearby!

Another cold front will move through arond Thursday of next week, so enjoy this warm up. The cold front are continuing to get weaker with the exception of the few really strong ones, and the warm up's are getting more and more impressive.

Average high temperatures make a big jump in March. Right now, the average highs around the area are in the low 50's. They started out in the 40's and by the end of the month, average high temperatures will be in the 60's.

I will a have a new blog soon.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Cold air on the way!

Take a look at the current surface map:

Dont let this morning fool you as temperatures out ahead of the arctic front are fairly warm in the 50's and 60's. But once the front passes through, temperatures will drop quickly and by this evening, temperatures will already be in the 20's with an overnight low in the teens.

There was a band of rain last night that added up to generally 1-2 inches. So another good soaking rain for many.

Alex Pickman

Monday, March 9, 2009

More heavy rain...Arctic air?...Updated!

A **Tornado Warning** has been issued for northern St. Clair county untill 1:15 AM.



The setup tonight is going to bring some locations very heavy rain fall. Take a look at the current surface map:

Notice the big temperature contrast...Storms thrive under these conditions, and a surface storm developed in western Kansas today and is now moving quickly along an arctic cold front, and with abundant Pacific tropical moisture, we have another wet storm on our hands.

A large, but fairly narrrow band of rain has developed and is training over the same areas dumping heavy rain amounts. The SPC has issued a flash Flood Watch much of the area as a result. This combined with Saturday night's rain isnt helping as the ground is already excessively saturated in many locations. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

The rain should continue overnight and I am expecting a swath of very heavy rain to fall, but where will this band be located?

The above map shows where I am thinking the heaviest rain will fall overnight with 1-2, maybe 3 inches of rain falling. This band could shift a little bit north or south.
There is a slight risk for severe weather, generally south of I-70, but the main threat would be hail and strong winds. There have been some severe weather reports, so i wouldnt rule out a storm reaching severe limits. The strongest of the storms will likely reside in southern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, where I think an isolated tornado is possible.
Tomorrow morning around 7 or 8 AM should be fairly warm with 50's and 60's around the area, but if you look at he first map again, that arctic front is poised to blast through and by Tuesday evening, we will be in the 20's. By the time you wake up on Wednesday, temperatures will be in the teens. Highs Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be only in the 30's and low 40's around the area.
I will have an update tomorrow.
Alex Pickman

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Heavy rain last night...Monday storm?

Well with last night's training thunderstorms, flooding became a problem as heavy rain fell. There was a swath where an estimated 1-3+ inches fell. This prompted the SPC to issue a flash flood warning for parts of central Missouri, extending northeast into Illinois. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

The heavy rain caused many creeks and streams to flood and go over their banks. And a storm approaching the area for Monday will likely cause more problems. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is pushing northward, and by noon tomorrow, clouds will have overspread the region after a cool morning in the 30's. Highs Monday should make it into the 50's with rain and thunderstorms moving in late in the afternoon and continuing overnight.
This has potential to be another big rain event. Take a look at the 12z NAM total precip through Tuesday morning:

This has northern Missouri in a band of 1-2+ inches. I think there will be a band somewhere in the area with some 1-3+ inch totals. Will there be any severe weather?
As you can see, the SPC has put areas south of KC into northern Texas in a slight risk for severe. We will have to see how it sets up tomorrow, but right now, it looks like more of a heavy rain event across northern Missouri.
I will have an update tomorrow.
Alex Pickman

Saturday, March 7, 2009

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch...Updated!

I wanted to talk about the flooding potential tonight as these storms are training one after another. Take a look at the map below:

The storms are moving northeastward and as you can see, there are storms just lined up one after another. This could cause flooding problems with many locations likely recieving 1-2" of rain. Based on the track of the current storms, here is my forecast map of who has potential to see 1-2+" of rain:
Locations in this band may not get much at all. It just depends if you get under some training thunderstorms. Areas who do get the heavy thunderstorm activity will likely have to deal with some flash flooding as the area has been fairly dry the last month.
The threat of severe weather is there, with hail the primary threat. The severe weather potential will be its greatest across eastern Kansas through central Missouri from now through the next about 4 hours. The SPC is looking to extend or issue a new watch from northeast Missouri and into Illinois as the storms will soon be entering that area. You can see the discussion area on the warning map above.

It is likely going to drop into the 30's tonight with some continued rain. The rain should be out of here by mid morning Sunday as the surface low will be tracking east of us. I think highs on Sunday will make back into the 40's and low 50's.

Take a look at the current position of the surface storm. It is snowing across parts of Nebraska with 70's just to the south of the front! I will have an update tomorrow:

Alex Pickman


The SPC has issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas from around Kansas City to north central Missouri. Take a look at the map below:

Thunderstorms are developing and moving into the new watch area from the first watch in Kansas. The main threat continues to be hail with strong winds possible. The chance of a spin up is extremely small. There was a tornado reported on the ground earlier this evening around Hutchison, KS.

The SPC as you can read in the previous blog said maybe 1 or 2 tornadoes, so you can see the setup wasnt there for a big tornado outbreak.

This new watch is valid until 3:00 AM. Ill keep you posted.

Alex Pickman

Severe weather potential....Severe Thunderstorm Watch

With the stationary warm front across northern Missouri and a storm system approaching, there is potential for severe weather today. Take a look at the visible satelite image below:

You can see the area from southweathern Kansas entering northeast Kansas of clear skies. This is allowing daytime heating with temperatures now jumping into the 70's in that area. This is allowing the atmosphere to destabalize and you can see the area of thunderstorms developing in central Kansas.

This has prompted the NWS to iss a severe thunderstorm watch across the destabalizign area. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

This watch is valid through 10:00 PM, and I think more watches and warnings will be issued. But what are the threats today and tonight? The map below shows the severe weather risk area and the risk probabilities:

(Click the image to enlarge)

As you can see the main threat with this setup is hail with a large 30% risk area. There is a damaging wind risk, but it is only a 15% risk in central Kansas. There is even a tornadic risk from Kansas City southward where 1 or 2 tornadoes may spin up.
The showers and thunderstorms will continue across extreme northern Missouri ans southern Iowa today, but the bext chance of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and Missouri willl come later this evening and overnight as the main storm appoaches, trailing a cold front. The main threat will continue to be hail, but there could be some strong winds if a line forms along the front later tonight.
There is potential for flooding in some locations. I will have an update if anything significant develops.
Alex Pickman

Friday, March 6, 2009

Thunderstorms forming

The cold front that pushed through last night has lifted back north as a warm front, and now there are a couple of thunderstorms firing around St. Joseph and Camron, Missouri. There could be some small hail of around pea sized with these storms, but not much more than that.

The warm front will stall in northern Missouri, but will we see anymore rain tonight and tomorrow? I think the bext chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight will continue right along that warm front. Saturday is very complex and there are indications many locations will remain dry during the afternoon. Areas along and north of the stationary front will see the best chance of rain on Saturday.

The best chance of rain will come in Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the main storm enters,a nd the cold front passes through. There is potential for very heavy rain some spots. There is also potential for severe weather tonight through Sunday morning with hail and srtong winds the primary threat.

I will have a new blog on Saturday's forecast.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Very warm day today!...Updated

I want to talk about Saturday's forecast as it is very complex with a front stalling in the area. High temperatures to the north of the front will likely be in the 40's and 50's. Temperatures south of the front will likley be in the 60's and 70's.

I think the front will position itself right around highway 36, and there could be some showers and thunderstorms along this boundary.

Previous entry below.

Strong southerly winds pushed in warm air, and most locations were in the 70's with low 80's in western Missouri! St. Joseph topped out at 82 degrees and KC had a high of 81. Winds were between 10-40 mph. These strong winds, combined with warm temperatures, and dewpoints in the single digits and even below zero, created an extreme fire danger in western Kansas.

A cold front will push through tonight, but it is weak, and high on Friday should rebound in the 60's and low 70's around the area. It will be a tricky forecast Saturday with a front stalling in the area with 60's and 70's to the south, and 40's and 50's to the north. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, about 40% chance.

This warm weather should last till around Tuesday before another strong cold front pushes through around Tuesday night.

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Warm surge!

A storm system to the north is pulling a warm front through, and after highs today in the 50's and 60's, we will see a big push of warm air on Thursday. Highs on Thursday should top out in the 60's and 70's around the area with gusty southerly winds of 15-30 mph. The breezy conditions will continue Thursday night with lows in the 40's and 50's.

Friday will be just a touch cooler, with more northerly winds, highs will be in the 60's and lows in the 40's. But then again on Sunday, another big push of warm air will enter the area and highs may be almost identical to Thursday with highs in the 60's and 70's.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday with potential for severe weather across Central Missouri, but it just doesnt look right, but that is still a few days away.

This warm air should last through around next Tuesday, as another cold air mass enters the picture mid next week, but will there be precipitation associated with it? I think there will be some nearby, but it is unlikely with this weather pattern that we will be affected by another major snowstorm next week. It certainly is possible though..

Alex Pickman