Sunday, February 8, 2009

Exciting week of weather!

Well I havnt blogged in a few days, so lets recap what happened this weekend. A warm front pushed through early Thursday morning, and temperatures Thursday afternoon topped out in the upper 50's and 60's. Friday warmed ino the 60's and 70's and Saturday was the warmest day of the week with highs in the 60's and 70's as well.

Late Saturday afternoon and evening a cold front pushed through and temperatures Saturday night dropped into the 30's. It was mostly cloudy today with periods of sun but it was not nearly as warm, even though it was still above average with temperatures in the 40's. Now that leaves us where we are now.
A storm system is over eastern Colorado right now producing a band of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front in eastern New Mexico and western Texas where earlier there was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect. The storm system is also swinging a warm front north through Kansas and Missouri tonight, and I wouldnt rule out some patchy drzzle overnight. Winds will increase overnight across the area, and so will the temperatures as the warm front pushes through. Take a look at the forecast surface map for Monday:

I highlighted the isobars which connect areas of equal barometric pressure and drew in the wind direction. The winds will be out of the south before the cold front pushes through, then they will switch to more out of the southwest after the passage of the front. Notice how the isobars are close together around the area. This will translate to strong winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 45 mph. For that reason, the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory.
Take a look at the severe weather map below:

The strong southerly winds will allow highs Monday to warm into the 60's.

Now back to the rain. With the warm front lifted to the north Monday morning, the cold front which really is not a cold front, but a dry line will push through the area. Out ahead of that will be a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Right now this band of showers and thunderstorms is in the panhandle of Texas, but by tomorrow morning, it should be in central Kansas, and by around 10:00 AM, I am expecting that rain to be on the Kansas/Missouri state line and progressing eastward. By 1:00 PM the rain should be in central Missouri and by 3:00 PM on the Missouri/Illinois state line. I think the rain should be completly out on Missouri by 4:00 PM.

Once the dry line moves through, the precipitation will shut off and the sun should come out. Rain totals will likely be between 0.10" and 0.25". There could be higher totals of up to a half an inch in spots who get thunderstorms. This may not sound like a lot of rain, but given we are now on a 44 day dry spell with no significant precipitation and only 0.05" recorded a KCI since December 27th, this is like a deluge.

You may be wondering if there is any chance of severe weather on Monday. The SPC has a slight risk for northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, south eastern Nebraska, and south western Iowa. I am expecting a couple warnings tomorrow moning, but they would be just marginally severe.

It should be clear Monday night with lows dropping into the 40's, and Tuesday highs should jump into the upper 50's and 60's once again before a stronger storm number 2 enters the equation Tuesday night into Wednesday. I think there is potential for heavy rain late Tuesday night and Wednesday, before possibly changing over to some snowflakes with no accumulation.

If you are a snow lover, I would be praying for storm number 3 Friday into early Saturday, as it looks to have best potential to see snow accumulation depending on the track. Take a look a 6z GFS map below valid Saturday:

I will have a new blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman


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