Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Rain moving in...Severe weather...Snowstorm?!?!

Finally, the first storm in the past 45 days to give us a significant amount of precipitation is now begining to affect us with some heavy rain and thunderstorms moving into the area from the south. Take a look at the radar image from 9:00 PM below:

A widespread area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is overpreading the area and there is potential for heavy rain totals especially across central Missouri. Here is Gary Lezak's rainfall forecast through noon Wednesday:

In responce to the heavy rain, the NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch. Take a look at the map below:

There have been numerous reports of lightning with this rain as well. Speaking of lightning, there has been explosive thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening in Oklahoma and Texas along a dry line. These thunderstorms were in the form of rotating supercells, and did produce some tornadoes, one of which was just north of Oklahoma City in the town of Edmond, OK.

Here is a look at that storm north of Oklahoma City (Radar image provided by NBC Action News.com)

The severe weather is still ongoing to the south from Texas through Oklahoma. There is a slight risk for severe weather up here, but it is very slight. The better likelyhood for severe thunderstorm activity will occur the further south you go in southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri.

Take a look at the severe risk map below:

This is a very Spring-like storm system with very warm air, moisture available, and a severe weather outbreak.

The rain sould continue across the area tonight, and likely end sometime late tonight. But, another area of precipitation will likely form tomorrow morning, and temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 30's after a night time high in the low to mid 50's. If temperatures are just a couple degrees cooler, we could be dealing with some snowflakes in the morning through noon.
The storm affecting us now is storm number 2 in the series. Take a look at the map below:

You can see strong storm number 1 which affected us Monday morning with a fast moving band of rain and thunderstorms, some of which were marginally severe.

You can see where storm number 2, the one affecting us now is rapidly developing. But here is what I want to show you - Do you see storm number 3 off the northwest coast? Well that storm has the potential to be a major snowstorm in our area late Friday afternoon and Friday night. Take a look at the map below:

Friday is still iffy as the models are not very consistent with the timing and location of the storm. The reason I posted the 6z GFS is because this model seems to have a better grip on this weather pattern.
So rain/thunderstorms tonight with severe weather to the south. Rain/snow possible in the morning. Storms moves out later Wednesday with a rain total of 0.50" to over 2" in spots. Storm number 3 arrives Friday with a decent chance of snow, possibly heavy with large accumulations if the track is right. This storm is still very iffy. There is also a storm number 4 showing up on the models that may affect afect us early next week.
I will have a new blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman


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