tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75208339112450195732024-03-13T07:01:42.781-05:00Missouri Regional WeatherThis blog decribes the weather and conditions around the country, and focuses on the weather around the Missouri area.AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.comBlogger199125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-63559685780568860122011-11-01T13:25:00.000-05:002011-11-01T13:25:18.611-05:00Wednesday's StormA strong storm system will affect our area Wednesday with widespread rainfall likely, and maybe even out first chance of snowflakes Wednesday night. This strong storm system will likely develop over Kansas and strengthen as it crosses the border into Missouri Wednesday night. This will likely bring our first widespread rainfall in over 2 months. Take a look at the precipitation forecast map below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_DEPCo6YwRsHzz6whIOnbAix-hPc_vYgYjEdTdm8CqNfHQsvQ0KS4NxKRAT2RtCHHT58f5mVvqb2jPNNPDCk3ThYnJpLVsPSLjO5qnU0MXN0QBH1Ry8OGKypfcKKB2rcUFBOC4wp2eZ6B/s1600/Wedprecip.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_DEPCo6YwRsHzz6whIOnbAix-hPc_vYgYjEdTdm8CqNfHQsvQ0KS4NxKRAT2RtCHHT58f5mVvqb2jPNNPDCk3ThYnJpLVsPSLjO5qnU0MXN0QBH1Ry8OGKypfcKKB2rcUFBOC4wp2eZ6B/s400/Wedprecip.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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This the total storm surface precipitation forecast (60 hours) from the 06z GFS. This is forecasting most of the area to receive 0.5" to 1.5" of rain from this system. And as mentioned above, it has been over 2 months since we have had anything similar to this. The rain should begin during the day Wednesday and there will likely be some embedded thunderstorms. As a result, some locations will likely get more rainfall than expected. The other question I am trying to answer is , will it be cold enough for a change over to snow? I touched a bit on this in the previous blog yesterday. The storm should be pretty strong and intensifying as it begins crossing the state line into Missouri. The storm's strength will decide weather the column of air will be cold enough to produce some snow. Take a look at the next map below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvgfI8JdhVdPkQbA-2p6p8QPIbglosGprrtLDugO64p-IuAGKkjjj0Np54O8zPqmyZ4whv-dDuJ6YE-FeMbueYOExDfcXUfI8rHr1gIgHpkd6dl4UwchcIsBON5UFCclmyegS20tSI2k6m/s1600/500mb1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvgfI8JdhVdPkQbA-2p6p8QPIbglosGprrtLDugO64p-IuAGKkjjj0Np54O8zPqmyZ4whv-dDuJ6YE-FeMbueYOExDfcXUfI8rHr1gIgHpkd6dl4UwchcIsBON5UFCclmyegS20tSI2k6m/s400/500mb1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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This is the GFS forecast 500mb flow for Wednesday morning. The storm is just beginning to form today, and by Wednesday morning the storm will begin to get its act together in southern Colorado. This will set the stage for a Winter Storm acrossparts of Wyoming, Colorado, the Nebraska Panhandle, and Western Kansas. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are currently in place through these areas. over in our area, moisture is being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico, and as the storm continues to progress and intensify toward us Wednesday, organized areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop during the day.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwICNOMhMQOUys46w8H9Ptra4Zxu_N5rFOkwJ7l5FXzDG5v1ovUwIB9TT7r-fccLqKQJQQN8u-hCp8nipFBOAcTeEkmBvgs4u_n9gL8o_m8O1065PO_5WMzXgPi8OtgwzieZJSqjzWRYn3/s1600/500mb2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="377" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwICNOMhMQOUys46w8H9Ptra4Zxu_N5rFOkwJ7l5FXzDG5v1ovUwIB9TT7r-fccLqKQJQQN8u-hCp8nipFBOAcTeEkmBvgs4u_n9gL8o_m8O1065PO_5WMzXgPi8OtgwzieZJSqjzWRYn3/s400/500mb2.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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The map above is the 500mb flow around 1 AM Thursday morning as the storm moves toward the state line. As it does so it will likely intensify. As you can the trough axis with the strong vorticity maximum is working toward the state line. At this time the upper level low is likely about to close off. If it does so, this would lead to an even more organized area of precipitation. But will any of this be snow? The NAM model has been consistently showing it to get cold enough for a change over to snow with some possible light accumulations. The GFS has been consistent in showing now snow for our area. It is still too early to make a prediction on weather it will snow or not, but there is a notable chance for our first snowflakes of the season.<br />
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Today will be a very nice day. we are on the warm side of the developing storm system, and temperatures should be in the 70's throughout the area. Enjoy it while it lasts, the big change comes tomorrow.<br />
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Alex Pickman AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-17625153921012761552011-10-31T13:37:00.000-05:002011-10-31T13:37:52.694-05:00Finally something to talk about!Good Monday morning,<br />
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It has been a long time since we have been able to talk about some exciting weather. The rainfall for September through October has been extremely dry, with totals in most locations well under an inch. The average precipitation in this time frame is nearly 8 inches! So we are definitely due for some much needed rain. It has been weeks since we have seen any really exciting weather, and for once we are just a few days away from what is the start of a very active pattern.<br />
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A storm system is forecast to develop in the Rockies and strengthen as it pushes into the Plains. This storm has the potential to bring our area a some very interesting weather. By Thursday morning we could have seen rain eventually mixing with sleet and snow, and possibly changing to all snow. Thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are also possible. We will see a warm surge out ahead of the storm on Tuesday, and then a cold surge on the backside of the system. It has been a long time since we have talked about weather this exciting , but lets remember, this storm hasn't even formed yet.<br />
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Take a look at the map below valid 7 PM Wednesday:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1OJCKlhAjVqeIzAGLry9r09JK_kSxMS_EtVKGsHgKuQQZtfqSpQWnktE9Jeu3xhhXdEB_wtgZWrqPNnGxnHlCOrchAYgrtZIKWjv12jj6NZdNLRJ6lE97oWJiXKT6qoTysW3STtHYK3y9/s1600/500mbWed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1OJCKlhAjVqeIzAGLry9r09JK_kSxMS_EtVKGsHgKuQQZtfqSpQWnktE9Jeu3xhhXdEB_wtgZWrqPNnGxnHlCOrchAYgrtZIKWjv12jj6NZdNLRJ6lE97oWJiXKT6qoTysW3STtHYK3y9/s400/500mbWed.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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You can see the upper level storm intensifying as it approaches Eastern Kansas and Missouri. The track and formation of this storm will be the determining factor as to weather we have a comma head of precipitation develop over our area Wednesday night. For it to get cold enough to snow, we will need some strong lifting and enough cold air to drop temperatures to near 32 degrees. This may very well happen, but the storm will need to take a perfect track. The models have been trending for the storm to take a perfect path and strength for a change over to snow Wednesday evening.<br />
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Take a look at the surface forecast map valid at the same time, 7 PM Wednesday:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwjYv7GgykQUMNtkSUKMzTxm9T-xH-ywIvLk_jFq2oJijLqFslB1X_V4zci5IvziQi_tubOjHlvAg3oAd08WFLtWaLEXNg93tcF_3We1x-Y0PDqyjMRfpaPdlUewyiWsrpcY-2bppc9Vsu/s1600/surfaceWed.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwjYv7GgykQUMNtkSUKMzTxm9T-xH-ywIvLk_jFq2oJijLqFslB1X_V4zci5IvziQi_tubOjHlvAg3oAd08WFLtWaLEXNg93tcF_3We1x-Y0PDqyjMRfpaPdlUewyiWsrpcY-2bppc9Vsu/s400/surfaceWed.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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Notice the blue dashed line approaching Northwest Missouri. That is the 540 thickness, which in most storms in one indication that it will be cold enough to snow north and west of this line. This line will be approaching the area around 7 PM Wednesday, and at the same time, we will going through the strongest lifting. But once again, this storm hasn't even formed yet, and there are still a lot of questions as to the strength and track. So lets see how the next few models trend. We really need to break this extremely long dry spell. Will we end up with less than half and inch of rain, or an inch plus and a possible change over to snow? This is just the beginning of a series of storm system in the next 2 weeks.<br />
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Today should be very nice with light winds and highs in the 60's and approaching 70 degrees near Kansas City. Tuesday should be a great day as we get a surge of warm air in front of the approaching storm system. Highs should make a run in the low to mid 70's. Some locations south of I-70 and near Kansas City may approach 80 degrees.<br />
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I will have a new entry tomorrow on the approaching storm system.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-75432797524975995532010-09-23T11:38:00.002-05:002011-01-19T00:03:42.831-06:00More rain tonightToday will remain cloudy with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's around the area. There is band of rain stretching northward through central Kansas, and some showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible by late this afternoon based on the current radar trends.<br />
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The National Weather Service has locations along and north of I-70 in a Flash Flood Watch.<br />
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This Flash Flood Watch is in antisipation of possibly some very heavy rain as a strong cold front meets up with a plume of tropical moisture from Mexico. 1-2 inches of rain may fall across parts of northern Missouri tonight as rounds of thunderstorms move through the area. The ground in this area is saturated from recent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, so more flash flooding looks likely. With MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg, the risk for severe thunderstorms is pretty low as the atmosphere may be too stable, but a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop. The main risk would be some gusty winds and marginally severe hail.<br />
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As a result the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms from Kansas, northeast through Iowa and Michigan.<br />
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<img alt="20100923 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic" height="224" src="http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2010/day1otlk_20100923_2000_prt.gif" width="320" /><br />
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Late tonight the strong cold front will sweep through with a long line of thunderstorms. They should be under severe limits, but a few parts of the line may produce winds gusty enough to become severe. The rain chance should be completely out of the area by Friday morning. <br />
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Friday should be great with temperatures in the low to mid 70's and no rain. The forecast gets tricky Saturday into Sunday as an upper level low becomes "cut off" and moves south over us Saturday night. The computer models are not consistant on where it will end up tracking, but it looks like it will either be cool and dry, or cool and wet. It will take a couple more days to figure this out. This would definitely be a cool and wet scenario.<br />
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<img alt="image of 500mb Vort, Ht" height="300" src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_078s.gif" width="400" /><br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-9500029699895023972010-09-22T16:37:00.001-05:002010-09-22T16:38:17.482-05:00Very busy week of weatherLets look back in the past few days. A storm system moved into the area on Saturday, Septemeber 18, 2010 with a cold front stalling out along I-70. The temperature gradient was pretty impressive with around 90 degrees in Kansas City and 40's across Nebraska. Dewpoints south of the front were also near or above 70 degrees. Conditions were very favorable for thunderstorms to form. <br />
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Around 3:00 PM thunderstorms started lining up right over the Kansas City Metropolitan area, creating a very dangerous situation. With the favorable conditions, they quickly turned severe with damaging winds and hail. The storms were training over the same area so flash flooding was also a concern. What was amazing, was in a couple of the stronger stroms, the updrafts went crazy, and were strong enough to support hail over 5 inches! The storms also produced damaging microbursts to add to the damage around Kansas City. The thunderstorms continued around the area into the very early morning hours of Sunday the 19th. Here are some images from the NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO.<br />
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(5.5 inch hail producing thunderstorm)<br />
<a href="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/TOP_radar1.png"><img alt="" height="230" src="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/TOP_radar1.png" width="300" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_6.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Hail Stone" height="161" src="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_6_sm.jpg" width="215" /></a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_7.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Hail stone" height="161" src="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_7_sm.jpg" width="215" /></a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_5.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Hail stone" height="161" src="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/hail_indep_5_sm.jpg" width="215" /></a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/damage_indep_1.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="Hail damage" height="161" src="http://test.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/events/sep182010/damage_indep_1_sm.jpg" width="215" /></a></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Yesterday, a weak cold front stalled out across southeast Nebraska. Temperatures were well into the 80's and dewpoints neared 70 degrees. Everything seemed right for thunderstorms to form across southeastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northern Missouri. I expected a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued across northern Missouri by early afternoon and as expected a watch was issued. The threat for severe thunderstorms was pretty slim, and the only reports were in northeast Kansas, but take a look at the radar around 7:40 PM Tuesday.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">(Source: NBC Action News.com)</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://weatherblog.nbcactionnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/11.jpg"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-443" height="168" src="http://weatherblog.nbcactionnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/11-300x168.jpg" title="1" width="300" /></a></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Numerous thunderstorms formed and the main threat became flooding. These thunderstorms were moving over the same areas and many locations picked up over 3 inches of rain, and some locations in northeast Kansas picked up over 6 inches according to radar estimates. And with the ground already saturated by previous rains, the potential for flash flooding was great. It took a while for these storms to push southward as the front was stalled in Nebraska, but eventually they did as an outflow boundary drug them toward I-70. Take a look at the estimated precipitation totals:</span></span></span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8wJazDGo4LVopjhxis65pRJqNXBlDmAw4RLgrHfAoquU0UmvwyWoqiFc7IF0tA6AwKYGY1LYzbUT6WxhZwAU1YfhN9v_1eS9MS6O6pYCGYlKHu9qbwYMkVg4KE69jFpdKcLRzUThgUmbr/s1600/precip+1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" px="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8wJazDGo4LVopjhxis65pRJqNXBlDmAw4RLgrHfAoquU0UmvwyWoqiFc7IF0tA6AwKYGY1LYzbUT6WxhZwAU1YfhN9v_1eS9MS6O6pYCGYlKHu9qbwYMkVg4KE69jFpdKcLRzUThgUmbr/s320/precip+1.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">After all that, what is next? Well there is a couple things I am tracking. On Thursday a strong cold front will approach the area and push into southern Missouri by Thursday night. Right now it looks like rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times will push southeast. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe, but more heavy rain looks likely. </span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Friday and during the day on Saturday should be very nice with highs in 70's, but an upper level low is forecast to drop southward right over Missouri by Saturday night.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">This "Cut off" Upper Level Low will likely create a cool rainy day on Sunday. and lows in northern Missouri could dip into the 40's Monday morning. have a good first day of Fall.</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Alex Pickman</span></span></span></span>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-5224924050433538202010-06-30T21:25:00.000-05:002010-06-30T21:25:23.926-05:00Alex Making LandfallHurricane Alex is making landfall as a category 2 with winds of 100 mph, gusting to 115 mph. Take a look at the satelite image below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf4YPeDcN9Q8gT-e50FZpZzAPntDGEnGHAHBYdljmnA1VVsd4ax6ivRHm6S1vbNBQkTeebAwF-_j_4l1Iatd2xPd6PMRT7MnsSDmxe1f7C-4spvrn6pjMWwA8Y3Paq8r99EGX5ihjXwQHb/s1600/Alexlandfall.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf4YPeDcN9Q8gT-e50FZpZzAPntDGEnGHAHBYdljmnA1VVsd4ax6ivRHm6S1vbNBQkTeebAwF-_j_4l1Iatd2xPd6PMRT7MnsSDmxe1f7C-4spvrn6pjMWwA8Y3Paq8r99EGX5ihjXwQHb/s320/Alexlandfall.bmp" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The eye of the hurricane is 111 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. The pressure of the hurricane is down to 948, making this a very strong storm even though the winds are only at 100 mph. It appears the most damage/deaths from this storm will be post landfall. The slow movement and abundant moisture will allow for very heavy rains in south Texas and northern Mexico, where flooding is already occurring. The remnants of this system will likely sit over northern Miexico for the next several days.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-82537382624280955022010-06-30T19:46:00.001-05:002010-06-30T19:49:32.647-05:00Hurricane AlexWinds now up to 100 MPH, and gusting to 115** (Category 2)<br />
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Hurricane Alex is strengthening as it aproaches the northern Mexico coastline. A pretty well defined eye has formed as the storm has tightened up and the winds increase. Winds now are currently at 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph. Further strengthening is possible, but the storm will make landfall as a Category 2 storm within the next few hours. Take a look at the visible satelite image below:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP9v3hMz1GGvGxMm349RhBCUpZGpCfokkxlEWkmOg1dK8ERx0IIOZRSQE54SBMSKa5XkuUApEcHWep6ICzUfPdI0yQQJ4K8GDDq69dQpgUtlWMbCmhBNpOHMncWOV1gufH-b88-FLu4X5b/s1600/hurricane2Alex.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP9v3hMz1GGvGxMm349RhBCUpZGpCfokkxlEWkmOg1dK8ERx0IIOZRSQE54SBMSKa5XkuUApEcHWep6ICzUfPdI0yQQJ4K8GDDq69dQpgUtlWMbCmhBNpOHMncWOV1gufH-b88-FLu4X5b/s320/hurricane2Alex.bmp" /></a></div><br />
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</div><div style="text-align: left;">You can see the eye very clearly as the storm nears landfall in Mexico. Around that eye is where the most intense winds are located. This large hurricane is only moving about 12 mph allowing the eye to stay over the Gulf for a bit longer, thus may allow for some continued strengthening. The rains from Alex have already caused flooding from southern Texas into northeastern Mexico where much more is to come with this slow moving hurricane. 6-12 inches is likely in southern Texas.</div><br />
With Hurricane Alex very close to landfall, there shouldnt be much more strengthening of the storm. I think the winds may increase to 105 mph or so, but it remain a category 2 hurricane. We are very lucky this storm wasnt still a day away, because with the dry air and other obstacles out of the way, conditions are very favorable for rapid strengthening. If this storm was still a day away we would likely be dealing with a very large and powerful major hurricane. But a category 2 for the first storm of the season isnt too shabby. Lets look at the history of this storm.<br />
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Alex formed as a Tropical Depression a ways south and east of the Yucatan Peninsula. It soon developed into a 60 mph Tropical Storm as it moved northwest and made landfall in the western Yucatan. It reamerged in the western Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Depresion and rapidly intensified into a strong Tropical Storm as it moved nothward. The computer models were forecasting a more westward turn, so it was a waiting game to see when Alex would turn northwest. The storm did finally make the northwest turn which poised it directly toward Brownsville, Texas. The forecast was now for it to turn more westerly and aim Alex’s landfall in northern Mexico. The longer it stayed on the northwest track, the greater the chance of a US lanfall. the storm did finally turn west and Alex became the first hurricane of the 2010 season. The storm once again made a turn to the northwest, puting the threat back on the south Texas coast, but it remained south of the US and as mentioned, make landfall as a category 2 storm in northern Mexico.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1wz6SeoLoc0uI8iQ8HJrS-VYEVuKBYsweHQMVkpibUvsNTnOBBfQZTUT4Ue5JR-hiRl_uB109VLTdoR4LLCbekiGCklGPmVX5M49XNXk-fq6YQQRGD3UT5CPKPqnOJEZmsc-V9DWGj7dX/s1600/Alex-track.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ru="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1wz6SeoLoc0uI8iQ8HJrS-VYEVuKBYsweHQMVkpibUvsNTnOBBfQZTUT4Ue5JR-hiRl_uB109VLTdoR4LLCbekiGCklGPmVX5M49XNXk-fq6YQQRGD3UT5CPKPqnOJEZmsc-V9DWGj7dX/s320/Alex-track.bmp" /></a></div><br />
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Hurricane Alex will likely bring a storm surge of between 3-9 feet in northern Mexico and south Texas. A few tornadoes are also possible a the atmosphere is moderately unstable with plenty of moisture and wind sheer. Remember the most likely locations for tornadoes will be on the right side of where the storm makes landfall.<br />
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Another concearn with this Hurricane is the effects it has on the oil disater in the Gulf. Alex is creating rough seas over the Deepwater Horizon blowout location with 6-8 foot waves. The strong winds and rough seas will push oil into many of the bays and esturaries that havnt seen the oil yet. A storm surge of 1-2 feet along the Louisiana coast will allow the oil to press deeper into the very complex and fragile ecosystem of the marshlands.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-19546418427589395332010-05-29T01:06:00.000-05:002010-05-29T01:06:13.756-05:002010 Hurricane SeasonWell its that time of year again with only a few more days until the start of Hurricane season in the Atlantic which runs from June 1st through November 30th. Every year before the season begins, a team of researchers of the Colorado State University analyze data and produce an outlook for the number of tropical systems possibly to develop in the Atlantic. Back in April, 2010, this team of researchers predicted an above average year with around 15 named storms and possibly 4 major (Cat 3, 4, 5) hurricanes. The outlook was recently revised, but not for the better. This most recent outlook increased to an eye opening 14 to 23 named systems. This is way up from from the previous 15 storms which was already above average. With the increase in the number of storms, there is an increase in the number or hurricanes and the number of major hurricanes. So here is a quick breakdown of the 2010 Hurrican season: <br />
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Named Storms: 14-23; Number of Hurricanes: 8-14; Major Hurricanes: 3-7<br />
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So, why is this season expected to be such an active one? There are several factors that are included, but here are the biggest ones. The surface temperatures of the Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic are exceptionally warm which will provide the fuel the storms need. Neutral or La Nina conditions are developing in the Tropical Pacific with La Nina becomeing more an more likely. Computer models are also showing a vast number of storms developing and is as well predicting an extremely active season. There have been some extremely active seasons in the past and many of those season had a similar oceanic setup to this seasons’s. Remember, the average number of named storms is 11, with around 6 hurricanes, and two of which becoming major of Category 3 or higher. If this season ends up at the high end of the predicted number of storms, then it will go down as one of the most active seasons on record.<br />
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With so many tropical systems being predicted, there is increase of U.S. landfall. Anyone who lives along the coast from the Gulf of Mexico, all the way up the east coast needs to be prepared. It is impossible to predict how many storms will make landfall as that lies with atmospheric conditions, but you should have the mindset going into a season that any storms that form pose a threat.<br />
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I am worried about the huge oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Louisiana and Mississippi. Remeber Hurricane Katrina from 2005, which was the most active season on record. Look at the picture below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJKt1iao6oyfd_MCdGIOkHUTEzydAguLQY_mYiLCOV6vW1oaFVsYcJoUq7MfUZ0HuOkEyKr12hzUYzZY9Pw2y0KtnLvLuK8n3dyIUigthWMtAVH6ET5wqyfGaWp7EAEZ6gXMl4ce3kKW_W/s1600/Katrina.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJKt1iao6oyfd_MCdGIOkHUTEzydAguLQY_mYiLCOV6vW1oaFVsYcJoUq7MfUZ0HuOkEyKr12hzUYzZY9Pw2y0KtnLvLuK8n3dyIUigthWMtAVH6ET5wqyfGaWp7EAEZ6gXMl4ce3kKW_W/s320/Katrina.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Hurricane Katrina, a strong Category 5 hurricane is passing through the current location of the oil slick. If a hurricane decides to take a similar path this season, all of the works and hopes to keep as much oil out of the marshes will be lost. With the oil leak the biggest disaster in years, the last thing we need is a hurricane to track over it as it will create a natural disaster of epic proportions.</div><br />
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Many ingredients need to come together from water temperatures to atmospheric conditions, but this season may be one to be remembered.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-76042146714876954362010-05-26T02:15:00.003-05:002010-05-26T02:27:09.923-05:00Thunderstorms WednesdayThunderstorms developed across eastern Kansas and Missouri today (Tuesday) with the heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms reached severe limits and produced some hail. Ping pong sized hail was reported just east of Smithville, MO. Since these thunderstorms were being powered by the heat, once the evening approached, they began to die. The bigger threat with these thunderstorms today was the heavy rain. There was just about no wind shear, so the storms were moving very very slowly and flash flooding was a concearn.<br />
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The thunderstorms this afternoon were scattered, but they will be more numerous for Wednesday from Kansas through Missouri and northeastward into Iowa, Illinois, and southern Wisconson. The storms will be developing along the frontal boundary and the thunderstorms will likely not get into anything very organized, but some organizations is possible at time throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. There is a very slight threat of some of the thunderstorms turning severe, but some of these storms will “pulse” up during the afternoon and become strong to severe with hail the main threat.<br />
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The thunderstorm threat will diminish by Thursday across the southern Plains and lead to a very pleasent Memorial Day weekend with high temperatures in the 80’s throughout the region.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-75719179575912418162010-05-22T19:23:00.000-05:002010-05-22T19:23:01.653-05:00Big Warming Trend!It has been a very cool and wet may across eastern Kansas and the norhern half of Missouri with the past 16 days having below average temperatures. Today this streak of cool weather was ended. Take a look at the GFS 500 mb map this afternoon below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPIV9MQ_n_FnR5N5gm07P1PF5chDM_xouTAa7PAZxaVrPp5loRwqJchtJuKPep83Wyo9V80WWPAqJNBrbmIzWz1Kiw2hGgA3Mr1jCRIv0lg_8Yx2NfNyO12rLObgy1BPMPqvYVit-I4qSJ/s1600/5-22-500mb.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" gu="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPIV9MQ_n_FnR5N5gm07P1PF5chDM_xouTAa7PAZxaVrPp5loRwqJchtJuKPep83Wyo9V80WWPAqJNBrbmIzWz1Kiw2hGgA3Mr1jCRIv0lg_8Yx2NfNyO12rLObgy1BPMPqvYVit-I4qSJ/s320/5-22-500mb.bmp" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">We are experiencing ridging over the Plains which is allowing very warm air to spill into the region. The troughing over the west is keeping the cooler and active weather away from us and will remain in place through next week. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the mid to upper 80's with dewpoints in the upper 60's and low 70's, creating very humid conditions with all of the recent rains.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">There may be some pop up showers across northern Kansas and Missouri, but they should diminish by noon. There will likely be a slight chance of an aftrnoon pop up shower or thunderstorm everyday through this next week.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-60720163051048622942010-05-19T18:50:00.000-05:002010-05-19T18:50:15.646-05:00Late afternoon update<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Thunderstorms are firing across central Oklahoma and rapidly growing in strength. Take a look at the current PDS Tornado Watch below:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_ZLdnz6lcaTriQq6bt6nHYVUK4ZwGpTq1z0eadBhXn-S_vVVPraNc95rO4fLSi15_EUnoKGqlfdpPwa1uTMXBjxkqo3y9CdpZwriMZlnfddxLrPJTlnkC8pQ8B0aEdPUTEfR8BKh2e-OI/s1600/5-19pdswatch.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_ZLdnz6lcaTriQq6bt6nHYVUK4ZwGpTq1z0eadBhXn-S_vVVPraNc95rO4fLSi15_EUnoKGqlfdpPwa1uTMXBjxkqo3y9CdpZwriMZlnfddxLrPJTlnkC8pQ8B0aEdPUTEfR8BKh2e-OI/s320/5-19pdswatch.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Here is the current severe weather report map below:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-tS7SfP9ZhhbMxZdOfIqoeG6SElCUimw8QhOHK6wdOGJ_5604C6J5OKnr1nuJDriB7tJUgjR7AS-0zdBWxUn8nk-DNMG_B0BGegxIYuhimhBrIEpPoUZxvANb-fl10MTc0oV9jHswbL5m/s1600/5-19reports1.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-tS7SfP9ZhhbMxZdOfIqoeG6SElCUimw8QhOHK6wdOGJ_5604C6J5OKnr1nuJDriB7tJUgjR7AS-0zdBWxUn8nk-DNMG_B0BGegxIYuhimhBrIEpPoUZxvANb-fl10MTc0oV9jHswbL5m/s320/5-19reports1.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">There have already been 13 tornado reports and there will be more to come with the possibility of large tornadoes forming. The severe and tornadic threat will continue into the overnight hours and this will make for a dangerous situation as tornadoes are hard to see at night and most people are asleep. These intense supercells are also containing very large hail and damaging winds. </div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">This event is just starting ramp up so stay tuned to your weather radio and the NWS (National Weather Service) for the latest warnings.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-28759596742824132712010-05-19T11:58:00.001-05:002010-05-19T13:18:11.456-05:00Heavy rains expectedA slow moving storm system is begining to affect the area late this morning. The NWS (National Weather Service) has issued a Flood Watch for eastern Kansas and western and central Missouri with a Flash Flood Watch to the south of that. Take a look at the warning map below: <br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglzoCL7WX45gqRAMRoL8O0MrEtiuszfr3aU1oOqvHy3bbIc5xMKNKZFKvj4QWWe234U5e81y8gJDgpPtqk68-YLD6yxNrwSDt3OoUPmKQuGQ73bWqDg3YmyhzACS5Cdku17ZOLth_coXnJ/s1600/5-19warnings.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglzoCL7WX45gqRAMRoL8O0MrEtiuszfr3aU1oOqvHy3bbIc5xMKNKZFKvj4QWWe234U5e81y8gJDgpPtqk68-YLD6yxNrwSDt3OoUPmKQuGQ73bWqDg3YmyhzACS5Cdku17ZOLth_coXnJ/s320/5-19warnings.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">This is in expectaion of heavy rains this afternoon and especially overnight. Our first round of weather is a slow moving band of steady rain currently moving out of Kansas and into western Missouri. The areas where it is currently raining will likely remain in the upper 50's for highs today continuing the now 2 week stretch of cool temperatures. This area of rain will slowly press northeast and stick with us through the afternoon. This first round of precipitation is associated with a warm front in Oklahoma. Take a look at the surface map below where I have drawn in the fronts:<br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN0ouJD7VcDZd0ukTRxSpcj68vZ-2yCn8sO8VkXAqErPfrsySrgDpHBNVjgbAfTfiGb4rNGRvzOnw29W05CDxx9-A23Xsr4gDcckxVqIMvCfBFST3NjUHU6ggPHp41qdAJ872umHjMlHuR/s1600/5-19surface.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN0ouJD7VcDZd0ukTRxSpcj68vZ-2yCn8sO8VkXAqErPfrsySrgDpHBNVjgbAfTfiGb4rNGRvzOnw29W05CDxx9-A23Xsr4gDcckxVqIMvCfBFST3NjUHU6ggPHp41qdAJ872umHjMlHuR/s320/5-19surface.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The surface low will push east into Oklahoma and conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with another major outbreak likely across the same locations as the May 10th outbreak last Monday. The SPC has issued a High Risk for central Oklahoma. Take a look at the Risk map below:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjcEtWuBw8O8YP29J7gu2R8nAlgzOxB9QxlTDwI7alrxyOSUSjMnCJgkVnDV_aymMR2E4Fh0O7gZCKQS0-04_dz5ZEGE9H98SPvlBkhCcnmc-RUiZRk4YeP2JRFf28daqYBb2obt2J_cQP/s1600/5-19severerisk.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjcEtWuBw8O8YP29J7gu2R8nAlgzOxB9QxlTDwI7alrxyOSUSjMnCJgkVnDV_aymMR2E4Fh0O7gZCKQS0-04_dz5ZEGE9H98SPvlBkhCcnmc-RUiZRk4YeP2JRFf28daqYBb2obt2J_cQP/s320/5-19severerisk.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Thunderstorms will form along the dryline and rapidliy become supercellular. There will likely be numerous tornadoes and a few of them may be quite strong. Remember, last Monday, there were 2 EF-4 tornadoes that tracked through the southern Oklahoma City area affecting the towns of Moore and Norman, OK. This could be a scenario again today, so people need to pay close attention to any warnings issued. Along with the tornadic threat, the stronger cells will likely contain hail up to baseball+ and damaging winds. The severe threat will shift into eastern Oklahoma this evening and possibly evolve into a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and track into Missouri. This will be our second round of rain and will likely be heavy.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">There really isnt a severe thunderstorm threat in Missouri today or tonight, but 1-2 inches of rain will fall and there could be localized areas of 4+ inches leading to flooding.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">I will have a new entry late tonight.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-62011416541732495122010-05-19T02:29:00.000-05:002010-05-19T02:29:40.561-05:00Late night updateA severe weather outbreak is likely Wednesday afternoon across Oklahoma with tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The severe threat will shift into eastern Oklahoma Wednesday evening and the precipitation may form into an MSC (Mesoscale Convective System) and track northeast into Missouri where a flooding threat may occur with heavy rainfall.<br />
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I will have a new entry in the morning with the latest developments.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-27775734273639798972010-05-15T02:19:00.001-05:002010-05-15T21:09:18.312-05:00Rain exiting...more to comeAn area of rain expanded in coverage across eastern Kansas and Missouri this morning and lingered around all day. Totals were not impressive with around half an inch to areas just to the southwest of Kansas City. The southern extent of the rain is currently in northern and north central Missouri and most areas will remain dry overnight, but there could be some drizzle and scattered showers.<br />
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A disturbence in eastern Oklahoma will cause another area of rain to develop to the south and west in southern Missouri and Kansas that will lift north and east. Rain totals will generally be less than half an inch, with southwestern Missouri maybe with closer to an inch of rain. The morning may be the only dry hours for most locations tomorrow. Highsfor your Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50's from Kansas City northward with low to mid 60's to the south.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-30643122545685913952010-05-13T02:11:00.000-05:002010-05-13T02:11:29.102-05:002:00 AM update**Damage reperted in Kansas City metro area from straight line winds**<br />
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Rain and heavy thunderstorms are moving from southern Kansas northeast through southeastern Iowa. They are riding northeast along a frontal boundary associated with a very slow moving storm system. Take a look at the map below where I have drawn in the fronts:<br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: left;">The SPC still has the area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threats. The biggest threat with this system is the very heavy rainfall. With the the slow progression of the storm and frontal boundaries and the heavy precipitaion riding northeast along it, a training effect is occurring. This is leading to excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas northeastward through Missouri. There may be localized areas with over 3 inches of rain tonight. There are many Flood Watches and Warning currently across Missouri due the rain tongiht on the already saturated ground.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: left;">By Thursday, the rain and thunderstorms should shift from Illinois southwest through Arkansas. With all of the rain recently, you probably dont want to hear about another wet storm sytem for this weekend.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: left;"><br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-24216684845757149722010-05-12T18:42:00.002-05:002010-05-12T18:43:40.842-05:00Late afternoon updateThunderstorms have fired across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. As I mentioned in the last entry, I was expecting to thunderstorms to fire along the cold front in a scattered line from south central Kansas southwest through west central Oklahoma, and this is what happened. There is another cluster in north central Kansas and a cluster that just developed recently in west central Missouri. The NWS has issued a large Tornado Watch from nortern Texas northeast to just south and west of Kansas City. Take a look at the map below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcUGAlDmTa4M2uDpN6KEX9QONVvuB4xlkkfRDc6CPArQR7N1D_G1qqLf3NX2AxYmVXLIoh3SlChhJr6AFph0qajxjNZY-zTLBlL8idxXVhAXBYMCKEe5M5cegsdAMLUbUaSWfI7QYqBvui/s1600/5-12tornadowatch1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcUGAlDmTa4M2uDpN6KEX9QONVvuB4xlkkfRDc6CPArQR7N1D_G1qqLf3NX2AxYmVXLIoh3SlChhJr6AFph0qajxjNZY-zTLBlL8idxXVhAXBYMCKEe5M5cegsdAMLUbUaSWfI7QYqBvui/s320/5-12tornadowatch1.gif" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">As you can see in the map above there is another small Tornado Watch just to right of the Kansas watch. This small watch box includes the Kansas City metro area. Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop in eastern Kansas out ahead of the main line with hail the main threat in any severe thunderstorms. There is a small chance an isolated tonado may spin up, but it really isnt worth mentioning, just that there is a small risk for a tornado. The best chance for a tornado will liekly be in western Oklahoma and south central Kasnas.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The biggest threat from this system is looking like the flooding potential. Moisture is streaming in from the southwest and with heavy thunderstorms along a slow moving cold front, flooding rains are likely in spots, especially in far eastern Kansas and through Missouri where nearly the entire state is under a Flood Watch. </div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The cold front will slowly slide into Missouri tonight with heavy thunderstorms in a line along it. The storms, some strong or severe will ride along the front, moving northeast and training over the same areas. Some spots will see excessive rainfall from this. This system has the potential to produce much more that what it is now, but there are limiting factors and I mentioned one in the last blog.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Large hail looks to be the main threat from thunderstorms through the overnight hours with excessive rainfall the main threat with a "training" nature of the storms. I will have an update around 1 AM.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman </div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-16658503359917297632010-05-12T13:12:00.001-05:002010-05-12T13:16:26.965-05:00Strong storms today?<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">A warm front is lifting northward through Kansas and Missouri. Take a look at the surface map below where I have drawn in the front:</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEu8vAh7mQKYc6wFgKPWx_rpDGEugzleNzVzvFbMJxdwrX9Lu1TpCY2lrrJemPzCgQorsX7l6lWMeI_KjQQWzOydlWGNYmUPOffLHIxuiXjTQoSAHQ1KFhV1mKR7c-ORcOCj1x0Q48_M6I/s1600/5-12surface.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEu8vAh7mQKYc6wFgKPWx_rpDGEugzleNzVzvFbMJxdwrX9Lu1TpCY2lrrJemPzCgQorsX7l6lWMeI_KjQQWzOydlWGNYmUPOffLHIxuiXjTQoSAHQ1KFhV1mKR7c-ORcOCj1x0Q48_M6I/s320/5-12surface.bmp" wt="true" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Temperatures south of the warm front are in the mid to upper 70's and will likely may a run into the low 80's. The front is having trouble pushing northward due to cloud cover. Take a look at the current visible satelite image below:</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVuPKLt1tGyuzyLPa5O5z-uP_XvhCoEVpNhKXPMUqcurkL-3_yCVFJeRIwgIwNX8BfdUQ8w5-cl0WyQ9v2SoSkrhQHFCCcxLgKKgsCtMAPttm58cbGBtsY8J1Lf6K2bvtFWZeMUcz_Qw8p/s1600/5-12visiblesat1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVuPKLt1tGyuzyLPa5O5z-uP_XvhCoEVpNhKXPMUqcurkL-3_yCVFJeRIwgIwNX8BfdUQ8w5-cl0WyQ9v2SoSkrhQHFCCcxLgKKgsCtMAPttm58cbGBtsY8J1Lf6K2bvtFWZeMUcz_Qw8p/s320/5-12visiblesat1.jpg" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">You can clearly tell where the front is loated by the clearing line from Kansas through central Missouri. If the cloud cover just to the north can break up a bit, the front will be able to push north faster and allow temperatures to heat up faster. I do think the front will still stall across northern Missouri this afternoon, but the timing is uncertain due to the cloud cover. Southern Missouri and Kansas will not have a problem heating up this afternoon as the front is well to the north. Northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri is a very difficult and complex forecast. Temperatures near the warm front this afternoon will be limited to the low to 70's from near Highway 36, and get cooler northward causing the air to be much more stable.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">South of the front, temperatures will warm up to near 80 degrees and dewpoints will surge into the 70's, so any thunderstorms that do develop will have plenty of energy to feed off of. Mid Level CAPE values will also be between 3000 and 4000 J/KG, which will aid in severe thunderstorm developent. One limiting factor is a strong cap (warm layer aloft) moving northeast of the area. This will prevent any development for most of the day until it weakens later in the afternoon. Once it weakens and breaks, thunderstorms should begin to fire along the cold front in a scattered line in south central Kansas and northen Oklahoma. With effective wind shear near 50 KT, a few supercells may develop and track northeast into eastern Kansas. These supercells will have strong winds and very large hail, and possibly pose a tornadic threat especially in south central and eastern Kansas.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">The area of rain and thunderstorms will expand in coverage as it slowly moves along the cold front into western Missouri. Damaging winds and large will likely be the main threat with any severe thunderstorms. With the slow advance of the front, heavy rain is expected along with the strong thunderstorm potential this afternoon and especially overnight. The ground is already saturated from the recent rain, and as a result, the NWS has put a most of Missouri under a Flash Flood Watch.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">I can see several other possible scenarios developing this afternoon and overnight, and I am not not sold on this forecast. This is a very complex system and a lot of things can still change. This is going to likely be a "Nowcasting" event. I will have an update around 6 or 7 this afternoon with the latest information and update the forecast as needed.</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-4765642545511442312010-05-12T02:18:00.000-05:002010-05-12T02:18:50.164-05:00Late night thoughtsThe frontal boundary that was stalled in Oklahoma has begun to surge northward. Take a look at the surface map below where I have drawn in the warm front.<br />
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The front has now pushed into southrn Kansas and Missouri and has set off showers and thunderstorms. Here is the current regional radar image:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitXCh4JXdSXWbCbV-cqSfLswK0rHkO1AU1QEv-87QBpjkZJf92W2Wvi19wSvX8ewisG4ffAEDtgunX-5MkNwtlgyl1-ozm68Pm5U8QQr8TKeLiyfWoXyqL3zo5DlAV_6FVQGyW9KrkHk0t/s1600/5-11radar.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitXCh4JXdSXWbCbV-cqSfLswK0rHkO1AU1QEv-87QBpjkZJf92W2Wvi19wSvX8ewisG4ffAEDtgunX-5MkNwtlgyl1-ozm68Pm5U8QQr8TKeLiyfWoXyqL3zo5DlAV_6FVQGyW9KrkHk0t/s320/5-11radar.gif" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The thunderstorms are forming along the warm front are slowly progressing northward. Notice how heavy the thunderstorms are over Missouri. They are growing in strength and coverage and are not moving much at all, moving over the same locations. This is creating a flodding problem. Also to add to that some of the thunderstorms have reached severe limits and are prducing hail and strong winds. The SPC has much of the area under a slight risk tonight tonight through Wednesday night. Take a look at the risk map:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmQpuntkQA4RtCo_caVEZEu0AiaUVaHEFto5_AbLjpXMrzB0bg1ypl4Qy4Nyb1tHexztgZBK5bBZwkaasaZRigtmkGshnmm24ZhblTAOv0jkQcB4duUF4FLc3X1002Wqc-zNxYTBWGUTvC/s1600/5-11severerisk3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmQpuntkQA4RtCo_caVEZEu0AiaUVaHEFto5_AbLjpXMrzB0bg1ypl4Qy4Nyb1tHexztgZBK5bBZwkaasaZRigtmkGshnmm24ZhblTAOv0jkQcB4duUF4FLc3X1002Wqc-zNxYTBWGUTvC/s320/5-11severerisk3.gif" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There is currently no watches in affect for Missouri, but a large Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in affect for the southern half of Kansas. The thunderstorm threat will continue to psh northward through the overnight hours and Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the warm front will likely be stalle over northeast Kasnas and northern Missouri. Temperatures south of the front will likey make a run into the lower to mid 80's with dewpoint possibly surging over the 70 degree mark. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday afternoon and with a arm and very moist airmass in place, thunderstorms will be a likely result. The SPC has much uf the area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon as you can see below:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0qXSMFTygfYsBp-01RZv4Aop0k0rlN5L7-ghchYnQdsBwD7_5YhsdFUGbWgzKbRt5o6RdlYBlR3Ucdq4bsAlkJfhovxwMmYcf3Kj3Ptm4abPRI6mhwDe1bKRao0e8kLhiI3i3fz57fZkI/s1600/5-11severerisk2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0qXSMFTygfYsBp-01RZv4Aop0k0rlN5L7-ghchYnQdsBwD7_5YhsdFUGbWgzKbRt5o6RdlYBlR3Ucdq4bsAlkJfhovxwMmYcf3Kj3Ptm4abPRI6mhwDe1bKRao0e8kLhiI3i3fz57fZkI/s320/5-11severerisk2.gif" wt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As mentioned above, we are dealing with a very warm and humid airmass behind the warm front. There are also other factors initiating the potential thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Mid Level CAPE value will surge between 3000 and 4000 J/KG. The warm sector, which is the area behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front, will be capped during the day Wednesday, but by late afternoon, several thunderstorms should begin to erupt in a scattered line from northern Missouri and southwest through eastern Kansas. This area, where the intial development will likely be, will be favorable for supercell thunderstorms to form due to strong wind shear. This may lead to isolated tornadoes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Any thunderstorms that do form in this vicinity will have to be monitored closley as they may very quickly become supercellular and begin to rotate. Very large hail will also be a threat from these thunderstorms.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So overall, expect rain and thunderstorms to push northward overnight and tomorrow morning along the progressing warm front Some of these storms may be strong to severe with hail being the main threat. The front will stall over northern Missouri. Warm and very humid air will surge in behind the front and atmospheric conditions will be favorable for sevre thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Initial development of thunderstorms will likely be from northern Missouri southwestward through eastern Kansas. Isolated Tornadic supercell thunderstorms may quickly develop in this initial development.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I will have an update tomorrow morning. This will likely be an active day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-78207266607510942742010-05-11T18:38:00.001-05:002010-05-11T18:38:59.162-05:00Thunderstorms tonight and WednesdayAfter the tornado outbreak in Oklahoma yesterday, another storm system is going to affect our area beginning tonight. A cold front is currently stalled over Oklahoma and will being pushing back to the north as a warm front later tonight. As it does so, it will spark off showers and thunderstorms. The air to south of the front is warm and very humid, and this will feed thunderstorm development tonight.<br />
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There will likely be a few severe thunderstorms along the warm front with the biggest threat being large hail. The SPC has much of the southern Plains under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8kVvO87P26FXm9tB-tH4UQIZH1OA0exkaRPuhPw6UT66ddYwqmi9NsAcTm15zw5e1-zBoJaZ_Fdp3knIrCnE0-idHD5-gtX3oK1UDTVs-JTn8Lz_dLz7LC4DzkQe3TPCbiLX-SRT1IToy/s1600/5-11severerisk.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8kVvO87P26FXm9tB-tH4UQIZH1OA0exkaRPuhPw6UT66ddYwqmi9NsAcTm15zw5e1-zBoJaZ_Fdp3knIrCnE0-idHD5-gtX3oK1UDTVs-JTn8Lz_dLz7LC4DzkQe3TPCbiLX-SRT1IToy/s320/5-11severerisk.gif" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Oklahoma has the biggest risk for severe thunderstorm development again, especially over western and north central Oklahoma. The atmosphere there is favorable for isolated thunderstorm development and large hail and strong winds will be the biggest threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The warm front will continue pushing northward throughout the night and by Wednesday afternoon, the front will likely be draped over northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe will be likely along it. Take a look a look at the the severe thunderstorm risk map for Wednesday:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBzBYslWfYUadFJeXWiag5WOyzyp9IedV9K-ek7SoG1deRl4Thgm1QobWFjT7a2IebizlxBT-0mYVELj8OgwlQsOfwSRiarDcXbixon-XiF9Ww8cLyrPbBkugCPNunJjUb1J1mYTSLtojE/s1600/5-12severerisk.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBzBYslWfYUadFJeXWiag5WOyzyp9IedV9K-ek7SoG1deRl4Thgm1QobWFjT7a2IebizlxBT-0mYVELj8OgwlQsOfwSRiarDcXbixon-XiF9Ww8cLyrPbBkugCPNunJjUb1J1mYTSLtojE/s320/5-12severerisk.gif" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is a very complex forecast Wednesday and I will discuss it more later tonight. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">SO for the rest of this afternoon and overnight, expect rain and thunderstorms to begin developing from Oklahoma into Arkansas along the warm front. Some of these storms will be strong to severe and gradually push northward overnight. By late tonight and Wednesday morning, the rain and thunderstorms will likely be located along the I-70 corridor affecting locations from Cenral Kasnas,through estern Missouri.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I will have a new blog and go into more details on Wednesday's difficult forecast later tonight around 1:00 AM.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-81885421831561139082010-05-11T02:25:00.000-05:002010-05-11T02:25:26.681-05:005-10-2010 Severe Weather OutbreakIt was an extremely active day across the southern Plains with numerous severe weather reports as an intense storm system sparked off numerous strong supercell thunderstorms that produced huge hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Here is the map from The Storm Prediction Center showing the severe weather reports:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3kLXf_mtJiqHNTJPkmVwW4xfTDHVkmuVYzFa0qnJ_rSg6fjZqOwxVmtdHr7CuvzP67XCbsIWfsF2AjNZBi63xrR_w2MB94i2x7OK4sRr-2zE4GNQUwjclzsqQxISjKMtTRxLvneds3qWX/s1600/5-10severereports" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3kLXf_mtJiqHNTJPkmVwW4xfTDHVkmuVYzFa0qnJ_rSg6fjZqOwxVmtdHr7CuvzP67XCbsIWfsF2AjNZBi63xrR_w2MB94i2x7OK4sRr-2zE4GNQUwjclzsqQxISjKMtTRxLvneds3qWX/s320/5-10severereports" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There were 37 reports of tornadoes across southern Kansas and Oklahoma and with those tornadoes unfortuneately 5 deaths were reported. The Oklahoma City area was hit by a couple tornadoes. Three storms blew up on the west side of the city and turned into a tornadic supercells in no time at all. The storms raced ENE at nearly 55 mph and produced a tornado that tracked through south OKC, Norman, and Moore, OK. Here is a radar image of the same storm roughly 60 miles to the east right near the town of Siminole, OK.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWO8PLDJX-fV7SpG6UMbJRUOmdUZ-c_Egm56Yyg9-QhFDnjAtW5e0CCV9602PfOMCOjW_-8TO-q3oKKjL_kGGpnzX-DA7SVAFoqss5tMYOTkW2-GAvD1i9EjhvQi8ABl366ds09vh4jku/s1600/5-10hook.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyWO8PLDJX-fV7SpG6UMbJRUOmdUZ-c_Egm56Yyg9-QhFDnjAtW5e0CCV9602PfOMCOjW_-8TO-q3oKKjL_kGGpnzX-DA7SVAFoqss5tMYOTkW2-GAvD1i9EjhvQi8ABl366ds09vh4jku/s320/5-10hook.gif" tt="true" /></a> </div><br />
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</div><div style="text-align: left;">This is a classic looking supercell, notice how well defined the hook is. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">Now if you look back up to the report map, notice how localized the outbreak was, from south central Kansas through southern Oklahoma. This storm system had the potential to produce a historic severe weather outbreak, and we would of been dealing with reports across Arkansas, and Missouri as well, but that area was dealing with cloud cover, rain, and a cold airmass all day and this pretty much fizzled away the chance of severe weather.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">There is a chance for more thunderstorms Tuesday evening and overnight as a warm front lifts northward through the area. There is a chance a few storms may be severe, but my focus is Wednesday afternoon and evening. The warm front will be pushing into northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri and the focus will be on locations south of the front where storms will likely fire. I will go into more detail on this tomorrow and in the next couple days I will post the tornado ratings from Monday's tornadic event.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-36172011328788343412010-05-10T18:50:00.002-05:002010-05-10T18:53:14.163-05:007:00 PM Update....Storms raging!Thunderstorms have vigorously formed along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma where expected. There are currently 4 Tornado Watches issued across the southern Plains, but I want to fucus right now on th PDS (Particurally Dangerous Situation) Watch box. This watch extends from southern Kansas through Oklahoma. Take a look at the map below:<br />
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As you can see, the length of the Watch is lined with thunderstorms, and these storms are huge. As of right now, there have been 21 tornado reports, and there will likely be many more to come. There was just recently a tornado ripping through the southern Oklahoma City area and effecting highly populated areas including Norman and Moore, OK. This storm is now located east east of Okalahoma City racing ENE at 55 mph. Take a look at the current and impresive radar image of the is strong supercell below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGtU6GL2MpYGO0h95a9x0OBpcYIHA5xlH-fGMYfA173MxVybAJeiI3gUyQrwp1FbwDV7-AHrF63ssnnc-Op3nIUyj-YjSq8hBpFXVElkLOXetKPzFxm1cQb7OrL5OPQmcwZCHH2c54h9iS/s1600/5-10hook.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGtU6GL2MpYGO0h95a9x0OBpcYIHA5xlH-fGMYfA173MxVybAJeiI3gUyQrwp1FbwDV7-AHrF63ssnnc-Op3nIUyj-YjSq8hBpFXVElkLOXetKPzFxm1cQb7OrL5OPQmcwZCHH2c54h9iS/s320/5-10hook.gif" tt="true" /></a></div><br />
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This storm means business and anyone in its path should take shelter immediately! The storm has had a history of tornadoes including ripping through OKC, damaging winds, and huge hail of baseball and up. Based on the radar image above, the storm looks to have possibly a large tornado on the ground so please seek shelter if you are in the path of this storm. </div><div style="text-align: left;"> <br />
Here is a map of all the curent Severe Weather Watches: </div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8fPOJK04ZxeRp6_WGevU-Eoc5J0RYlgF3P4cUTB_R6YLYxrUhDlRQn3Afz03o8azAR2o1A8R0FUcvHH-lpw4BO80yh7g6BFcoIvHRxrsXSfh0wpWSZE_YrhQSAUIKWezyb8F0zW2VvgsO/s1600/5-10watch3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8fPOJK04ZxeRp6_WGevU-Eoc5J0RYlgF3P4cUTB_R6YLYxrUhDlRQn3Afz03o8azAR2o1A8R0FUcvHH-lpw4BO80yh7g6BFcoIvHRxrsXSfh0wpWSZE_YrhQSAUIKWezyb8F0zW2VvgsO/s320/5-10watch3.png" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is an extremely dangerous event and should not be taken lightly. I wont have another update till around 1:00 AM, but there will still be storms rumbling then too.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-38079852982140338082010-05-10T14:17:00.000-05:002010-05-10T14:17:38.791-05:00UPDATE...PDS Tornado Watch!Thunderstorms have already started to fire in western Kansas and Oklahoma! The NWS has iss ed two Tornado Watch. Here is the first Watch below in western Kansas:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_yrOoJn2B-EsCdblV0Frng8tG11h-j1NyypEB90AN2ADoNqtKBVhxAOkRI8zt29HW1Ey9scwKgcx2PQLE7esg8mt3Lpib3o27G_IeF_Pc1EgMB72ng0JGavb9cKhjj6XD2fDEe4qOFig9/s1600/5-10watch1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_yrOoJn2B-EsCdblV0Frng8tG11h-j1NyypEB90AN2ADoNqtKBVhxAOkRI8zt29HW1Ey9scwKgcx2PQLE7esg8mt3Lpib3o27G_IeF_Pc1EgMB72ng0JGavb9cKhjj6XD2fDEe4qOFig9/s320/5-10watch1.gif" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And now here is the second Tornado Watch for southern Kasnas and Oklahoma. This is a PDS (Particurally Dangerous Situation) Watch and people need to take extreme caution as this outbreak is beginning to unfold!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkwhDCVAOdEWn7TJ_x-yVe4hREtNXY9FmHsJ6AGOIqV6iGlpKmMiL1wtaaYGmVOxu1UtJsXxEGCZxfXb-q5X441zO40hQbRBoU4Nn_wHJBrw5zx5xnX7c_hQLzHJ12wBL3s-OF5OINM1b/s1600/5-10watch2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkwhDCVAOdEWn7TJ_x-yVe4hREtNXY9FmHsJ6AGOIqV6iGlpKmMiL1wtaaYGmVOxu1UtJsXxEGCZxfXb-q5X441zO40hQbRBoU4Nn_wHJBrw5zx5xnX7c_hQLzHJ12wBL3s-OF5OINM1b/s320/5-10watch2.gif" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I will have a new entry around 5:30 PM. Until then likely expect the thunderstorms to fire and QUICKLY turn severe and more Watch/Warning to be issued!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-28661796385272249042010-05-10T13:58:00.002-05:002010-05-10T14:08:35.138-05:00High Risk!Conditions are set in place for a severe weather outbreak across portions of the southern plains. Take a look at the severe thunderstorm risk map issued by the SPC below:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_7JbruquB-NI7cjwe5k1rpYlRX3xl2vs9kqgwqRSu2FbAZxw3KFcUapwzsBC5tlHXZjJhQi2RY6lNveAYVNNDBo_8HwanVKYIb_JtK2ObOqfQnf5fq3kWs71PUinK9RE6MOGAwQFsfRCX/s1600/5-10severerisk.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_7JbruquB-NI7cjwe5k1rpYlRX3xl2vs9kqgwqRSu2FbAZxw3KFcUapwzsBC5tlHXZjJhQi2RY6lNveAYVNNDBo_8HwanVKYIb_JtK2ObOqfQnf5fq3kWs71PUinK9RE6MOGAwQFsfRCX/s320/5-10severerisk.bmp" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The SPC has issued a High Risk for far southeast Kansas and north central/northeast Oklahoma with the threat of large, long lived tornadoes. A potent surface low is continuing to develop and track into southwest Kansas with a 993 mb reading. Behind the warm front, strong southerly winds are allowing moisture form the Gulf of Mexico to surge in with dewpoints will into the 60's ahead of the dryline. Take a look at the surface map below:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjufx6xZ1d4e_rIjMhEZ5vjN-k-kWOE2I9WhhZpsVmae-kTp5AYq6vX0mwjLxy9K7XCgkOGjfPJTlsmVLb1OfPbNXRypsEUygH_rBO6NagSXLiNi-nid2W0BAlprP_mAp5j93FrSn4KlgCj/s1600/5-10surface.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjufx6xZ1d4e_rIjMhEZ5vjN-k-kWOE2I9WhhZpsVmae-kTp5AYq6vX0mwjLxy9K7XCgkOGjfPJTlsmVLb1OfPbNXRypsEUygH_rBO6NagSXLiNi-nid2W0BAlprP_mAp5j93FrSn4KlgCj/s320/5-10surface.bmp" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">You can see the surge of warm, moist air between the front an the dryline. As this moves eastward, thunderstorms should begin to develop along the dryline in south west Kansas and west central Oklahoma. Notice the cool air over Missouri and northeast Kansas. This is being caused by the rain and thunderstorms currently pushing though and will limit most of the tornadic potential later tonight as the storms move that way. The High Risk and surrounding areas are currently dealing with a low cloud problem as you can see in the map below:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrBNmDjEYBoOyWAaYYLKypblwEGLuuGubvhXpfDQstvrZfdC0XDk7uV_BHGRl2Zk0B-HL3YmOSpIHGALFq387KgsYXoDMXzBQUgv9h-X7XKAuXRq9jGZrQRaMziP9BIiXaXDfvAhpwmTmg/s1600/5-10satelite.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrBNmDjEYBoOyWAaYYLKypblwEGLuuGubvhXpfDQstvrZfdC0XDk7uV_BHGRl2Zk0B-HL3YmOSpIHGALFq387KgsYXoDMXzBQUgv9h-X7XKAuXRq9jGZrQRaMziP9BIiXaXDfvAhpwmTmg/s320/5-10satelite.bmp" tt="true" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If this were to remain in place, it would greatly limit th severe potential of this system, but the low cloud deck is gradually burning off from west to east and will set the stage for quite an outbreak of tornadoes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The cap should gradually weaken throughout the afternoon and once it breaks, the storms will begin to erupt and as mentioned above, im thinking south west Kansas, and west central, Oklahoma, right near the triple location. With very effective wind shear in place of 50-80 KT and good vertical shear, warm, moist air, Mid level CAPE over 3000 J/KG, the thunderstorms should very quickly become supercellular and race to the northeast with every storm having the potential for extremely large hail, damaging winds, and large, long lived tornadoes. This is for the High Risk area in KS and OK. What is expected for areas to the northeast toward Kansas City today and tonight?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The powerful surface low is associated with a negatively tilted potent upper level low that will be located in across eastern Kansas later tonight around 10:00 PM. With the negatively tilted nature of this storm system, the atmosphere has much more lift to it and the storms will be able to keep on going even though they will be entering a cooler enviornment as you can see in surface map above. Now, the tornadic risk will be greatly reduced and will be limited to SE Kansas, NC/NE Oklahoma, and possibly SW Missouri, but there is still a decent chance for severe thunderstorms in the form of large hail and damaging winds. The storms KS and OK will move our way overnight and evolve into more of a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms and push through the area later tonight.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is a very complex forecast and I will have a new entry later this afternoon with the lastest information and the possibility fo more strong thunderstorms on Wednesday.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman </div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-42099258322155621242010-05-09T23:24:00.002-05:002010-05-09T23:33:27.982-05:00Monumental Severe Outbreak Likely!A significant severe weather outbreak, which has been very well advertised for the past week is now bearing down on the southern Plains. The SPC has issued a Moderate risk for parts of central Kansas, into central Oklahoma, and southwestern Missouri. Here is the risk area below:<br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: left;">A warm front is currently pushing northward and is setting off numerous showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri that will contimue to expand in coverage and intensity overnight and Monday morning. As the thunderstorms push northward Monday overnight and Monday morning, some large hail and heavy rain may result, especially in the stronger cells. These storm will likely extend from Nebraska and eastern Kansas, into Missouri and Arkansas. This is not the main show however. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Computer models continue to show all the sufficient parameters for an intense day of severe thunderstorms. Once the warm front lifts through the area, dewpoints of 60+ degrees will establish out ahead of the dryline from north Texas into Kansas. There was concearn earlier this past week that the cap would be too strong and limit development to overnight or none at all, but that should not be the case with this storm system.The cap should erode through the mid and late afternoon Monday and thunderstorms should begin to fire across part of central Kansas by the mid afternoon hours. With the dryline, CAPE values between 2000-3500 J/KG, outrageous wind shear of 60-90 KT, and all the other parameters in place, Extremely dangerous, fast moving supercells will likely result across parst of Kansas and Oklahoma. These storms will be capaable of producing incredible hail and dangerous large, long lived tornadoes. As the storms move eastward through the evening and overnight hours, the nature of them will likely become more linear and clustered and maybe (MCS) like with large hail, damaging straight line winds, and still a tornadic threat. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is looking to be a historic day! I will have a new entry tomorrow morning and we should have the Plains first High Risk of the season!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-42455546495504395562010-04-30T02:19:00.000-05:002010-04-30T02:19:04.571-05:00Quick afternoon update...Tornado Watch<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">It is a warm and windy Thursday and the NWS has issed a Wind Advisory for much of westen Missouri and Kansas. Winds will continue to gust over 40 mph at times out of te southwest. This is caused from tight pressure gradients out ahead of a stalled frontal boundary through Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa associated with a couple very strong surface lows. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Warm and humid air is pumping into the area with highs near 80 degees. With this airmass in place, a very strong surface low and a frontal boundary, thunderstorms have fired northwest of Manhattan, KS and the SPC has issued Tornado Watch as a result. Take a look at the map below:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">You can see the watch area from central Kansas into southereastern Nebraska and far northwestern Missouri. Southeastern Nebraska looks to be most likely spot to see any tonadoes this evening. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds with a couple tornadoes possible. The storms should develop to the southwest and northeast becoming linear and training over the same locations due to the nearly stalled front. So, flooding may become a problem. The line will slowly inch toward Kansas City throughout the night, but will the hold together before they reach thestate line? It will be close, but outflow boundaries may limit thunderstorm development for western Missouri on Friday. The storms should enter northwest Missouri late tonight and tomorrow morning. The SPC does have a large area under a slight risk for Friday as you can see in the map below:</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWP5wRjyU8ue0hz5loEwPQxbBBFtpy3CkR9HdX-eSkDBw30zdAb0WHF5MkVlPqfoV4GLyAkpwRsLb_Qj2qKIDIKqbMUdi377OnydAUP8C9Ko9ifanzeHdG3w_a0GaioY832xseHZ64Bbba/s1600/may1severerisk.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWP5wRjyU8ue0hz5loEwPQxbBBFtpy3CkR9HdX-eSkDBw30zdAb0WHF5MkVlPqfoV4GLyAkpwRsLb_Qj2qKIDIKqbMUdi377OnydAUP8C9Ko9ifanzeHdG3w_a0GaioY832xseHZ64Bbba/s400/may1severerisk.bmp" tt="true" width="400" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">As you can see the risk area is focused more over central and eastern Missouri. This is a complex and difficult forcast and there are a lot of factors to look over. I will have a new blog tomorrow.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Alex Pickman</div>AlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7520833911245019573.post-91434340822483413052010-04-29T02:18:00.000-05:002010-04-29T02:18:44.582-05:00Quick update...Nice Thursday!It has been a few weeks since I have posted an entry. I have be very busy lately but things have calmed down now so I can ge back in to this. Take a look at the current surface map (1:00 AM):<br />
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Warm air is being drawn into the area as you can see in the map above. This will keep temperatures pretty warm tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper 50's. We will see temperatures jump into the upper 70's and low 80's across the area Thursday afternoon as southerly winds increase with gust 40-45 mph, so it will be very windy tomorrow afteroon. This will create fire conditions an red Flag Warnings may be posted near by soon.<br />
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A strong surface low is going to develop Thursday evening and the weather pattern is going to get very complex in the coming days. The strength, timing, and track the surface low will be a factor in if we see thunderstorms by Friday.<br />
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I will go into more detail on Thursday and Friday in the morning.<br />
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Alex PickmanAlexPickmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00184622654807992178noreply@blogger.com0