Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Dry weather continues

Yesterday was a fairly decent day with highs in the upper 40's to low 50's in the early afternoon. Winds began to increase out ahead of a Pacific cold front associated with an Alberta clipper system. The cold front pushed through and temperatures cooled into the low to mid 40's. This wasnt a stront front by any means.

There was also a weak arctic front behind the pacific front associated with the same clipper system. The pressure gradient between the two front was very tight, and the result was strong winds last night. The winds were blowing between 20-40 mph, and gusting over 50 mph at times. The warranted the NWS to issue a Wind Advisory for the area.

Winds of that strength will cause travel problems, and blow outdoor property around. I have a large trampoline that right now is leaning on its side against a swing set. The winds continued overnight after the arctic front pushed through. This was definitly no arctic blat by any means, but it still was cold this morning with lows in the upper teens to lower 20's.

The winds have also calmed quite a bit this morning due to the weak arctic high pressure settled in over the area. When you have high pressure, the air will sink because it is more dense, which prevents cloud development, and precipitation. Take a look at the diagram I drew below in case you are a picture learner:

Highs today will be in the upper 20's to mid 30's around the area. To give a general idea, I am going with a high of 33 degrees in Kansas City. What about tonight. Take a look at the surface map below:

The cold air is settled in now with light winds, but with clockwise rotation around high pressure, the winds switcj to the south in western Kansas. The high will continue to move to the east, and so will the southerly winds in Kansas. The winds across eastern Kansas and Missouri will begin to switch from the north to the south tonight, and increase in strength to 5 to 20 mph. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the low to mid 20's.
With the breezy south winds between 10 and 25 mph, the temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40's for your New Years Day. There will be a wind chill factor though, and it will likely feel 5 to 10 degrees colder.
The near to above 40 degree high temperatures and dry weather will remain through Saturday befre another storm system approaches. There is a slight chance of rain on Saturday, but right now only about a 20% chance.
There is a chance of snow sometime early next week.
Alex Pickman

Monday, December 29, 2008

Finally a break, but will it last?

We havehad a wild past week of weather ranging from cold to warm temperatures, with highs near 70 degrees in spots, to severe thunderstorms with bow echos producing and near 80 mph winds, to heavy freezing rain, then snow accumulating up to 2 inches.

We are now being blessed with a much deserved break. But how long will it last? A cold front pushed through the area this afternoon, and dropped the temperatures into the 30's. They will continue to fall overnight, but then another warm front pushes through associated with a clipper system. A clipper is just a fast moving storm that races through the area.

Temperatures will be on the rise early tomorrow morning, and highs tomorrow will be in the low to upper 50's around the area. There will be another cold front associated with the same clipper system that will push through during the afternoon. This is not a strong front, it just has some Pacific energy. Temperatures will drop into the 40's later in the afternoon.

There will be a stronger front with arctic air behind it that may or may not push through Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. I think it will push through, but temperatures will likely moderate behind it, and the front will weaken. I think highs Wednesday will range from the mid 20's to low 30's. So it will be cold, but not frigid. Lows Wednesday night will be in the low to upper 20's.

Then back into the 40's on Thursday, and into the 30's again on Friday. So the ups and downs continues this week, but there is no brutally cold air. It will also be dry. I do see a a very slight chance of some rain showers or sprinkles on Saturday.

So expect a decent weeks with highs generally above freezing, and no precipitation. But will the nice weather continue into next week?

There is an extensive arctic air mass building in Canada, northward through Siberia, and it is looking to get stronger than the past 3 weeks. There is no way it wont come down, so the question is will it come down in pieces, or a couple huge arctic blasts?

That is still up in the air to me, but I think it may get very cold sometime next week, and possibly stormy.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Some WILD weather!!

WOW!..what a wild day of weather. A very potent storm system is affecting much of the central U.S. The storm swung a warm front through Friday morning with an abnormally warm and humid airmass behind it with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. This put in place all of the nessesary ingerdients for thunderstorm development. Now we just needed a trigger, and potent cold front heading toward the area would do the trick.

As the cold front approached the area and moved into central Kansas, I started seeing signs of rapid thunderstorm development. During that same hour, thunderstorms started rapidly forming just east and west of the Kansas/Missouri border. A couple of them turned severe with wind and hail the primary threat. A Tornado Watch was issued for areas east and southwest of Kansas City. Even with the Tornado Watch in place, most of the thunderstorms remained under severe limits, and the storms that did go severe were just marginally severe. If there were going to be any tornadoes, then the first storm that formed would of reached supercell status and they didnt. The storms continued to remained scattered around the area until the cold front arrived.

Right out ahead of the cold front, a line of thunderstorms developed with a swath of rain behind the storms. Some areas of the line formed bow echos and produced strong winds.That is what happened in Kansas City as a bow echo formed and pushed through with 70 mph winds.

Then the cold front moved through, and temperatures crashed began to crash. They dropped below freezing before the area of heavy rain moved out. This area of heavy rain became an area of heavy freezing. This caused the NWS to issue a freezing rain advisory and over 1/4 inch of ice formed in some locations such as Atchison, Kansas, where I am at. There is just over 1/4" inch of ice on the trees and other surfaces. Now that the rain is gone, we focus on a developing upper low trying to get its act together.

Take a look at the map below:

This upper low formed at the end if the potent storm system that swung the cold front through. I talked about the possibility of this happening in the last blog entry. If this hold together by the rime it reaches us, there is a possibility of getting up to an inch of snow in spots, but if it weakens and/or moves further north, a dusting or less will be the result.

There is already a band of snow developing in Kansas, and I am almost 100 percent sure we will see some snowflakes, but it is still up in the air to me as to how much will fall. Right now I will go with up to an inch possible. There is no chance of freezing rain later today as the cold air settles in. Temperatures by 3:00 PM should be in the mid to upper 20's around the area.

After we get over with this storm system, we get a break from this active and cold pattern with a dry warm up for about the next 4 days with highs all above freezing. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 40's so this ice will all melt, and Monday, we get another big warm up with highs in the mid 50's to low 60's around the area again. Tuesday should also be warm again with highs in the 50's.

There is another storm system due in around New Years. I will talk about the next warm up, and the New Years storm later.

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Wednesday late night thoughts

Well it is 2:05 AM, so Merry Christmas. After last night's and this morning's small snowstorm, areas mainly north of I-70 got a welcome blanket of snow ranging from 1/2 to 3 inches. This guarenteed many a white Christmas.

Can you believe areas (again, mainly north of I-70) have had snow on the ground since December 9th-That is 17 days! Look at the visible satelite image to the left. As you can see, the snow cover begins from about I-70 northward. This is an expansive snowpack, and extends all the way to the Canadian border.

This weather pattern has been very interesting with ups and downs, and surprising and frustrating storm systems. This small snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday morning would rank under the frustrating category. The system had potential to get its act together and give a 3-6 inch snowfall, but it remained a weak, fastmoving wave and gave us a 1 to 3 inch snowfall. It was at least strong enough to swing a decent cold front through the area, and with the snowpack, temperatures will be in the single digits and low teens tonight.

With the cold temperatures tonight, there will be no snow melt and a white Christmas will be the outcome. But what about Christmas Day? Highs Thursday will be in the mid to upper 30's, with 40's not far away. I think the day should remain dry, but I would not rule out a sprinkle or two later in the afternoon. But with temperatures above freezing, the snow will begin to melt, and I dont this it will cool down much at night, only in the upper 20's to low 30's.

Now warm air really pushes in on Friday out ahead of a developing storm system. Winds will be strong out of the south at 15 to 25 mph on Friday with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's with 60's nearby.

Lets take a look back for a minute. The past two and a half weeks have been pretty wild. It was around 60 degrees on December 8th and it snowed on December 9th. It was also around 60 degrees on December 16th and it snowed the same day. I am expecting it to be near 60 in spots on Friday, so you can tell how this fits in the pattern we are in right now.

This warm up is in association with a developing storm system. It will warm up Friday as the organizing storm approaches from the west, and rain and even thunderstorms will be likely Friday night with lows in the upper 40's to lower 50's. Then Saturday will be very challenging.

This is a very complex forecast as we are dealing with a develoing storm. As the wave of energy approaches, there is potential for it to develop and close off into an upper low west of Kansas City. We have yet to see this happen during this weather pattern as the systems, just begin to strengthen over our area, and dont get their act together until they move east of us. This doesnt mean we wont get a perfect set up out of this.

If the scenario play out that it does form into an upper low west of Kansas City, then we will see a changeover to snow on Saturday with heafty accumulations likely. But I think the more likely scenario will be that the storm begins to develop into an upper low, but doesnt really get its act together until it is well east of the area, leaving us with mixed precip Saturday to possibly another measly 1-3 inches. Highs will likely be in the low to mid 30's.

I do think we will get a couple perfect set ups for big snowfalls this Winter, but right now I dont see it happening in a hurry.

After this storm system moves through, we will likely see a moderation trend in the temperatures next week. So this crazy weather pattern continues.

I will have a Christmas update tomorrow with the latest on the weekend storm.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Updated snowfall

Well most of the area is above freezing, and the ice on the roadways is melting, but it is still very slick in many spots around the area, especially in north central Missouri. Snow is now developing behind the cold front and here is what I am thinking.

Here is my updated snowfall forecast for the area:

This storm is still very disorganized. You may think different when you look at the radar and see all the snow developing in Kansas, but if you look at the vater vapor satelite, you cant even see the upper low. The area of 3+ inches could still push a further south and expand if this storm manages to gets its act together overnight. Lets take a look at Kansas City where I am expecting 1-2 inches, but like I just said, if this storm gets organized, KC could end up with 3-4 inches. St. Joe looks to be in the bullseye for snowfall right now.

Here is the forecast for the area tonight through Wednesday. The cold front will push through the area overnight and the temperatures will crash into the teens. Snow which is already developing with push through from West to East, and will push through Missouri between 12:00 AM to 6:00 AM Wednesday. The snow could be heavy at times, and if you get placed under a heavy band, you can expect higher totals. But I think the heavy snow bands will likley be around where St. Joeseph where I have that bullseye for 3+ inches.

I think the snow should be out of the area by 12:00 PM tomorrow with the sun coming out in the afternoon.

This is a very complex forecast as this storm is not really visible, and just trying to get its act together. I will have an update if there are any significant changes tonight, but I will have a new blog tomorrow morning tracking this snow.

Alex Pickman

My snowfall forecast for tomorrow as of now

Take a look at the surface map below:

You can see the current location of the cold front. There is still some lingering precipitation out ahead of the front from the first wave. It has mainly all switched over to rain, but there may still be some freezing rain or sleet here or there, but temperatures will continue to slowly rise this evening. Then the main storm will arrive. The cold front will push through later tonight, blasting in some cold air. Snow will be forming in Kansas on the back side of the front and make its way into Missouri as the upper low moves in from the west. There is potential for some fairly heafty snow totals by tomorrow morning, but how much may accumulate.
Here is my snowfall forecast as of now:

That 3+ inch band could have totals as high as 6 inches with heavier snow bands. This could shift north or south. If you get caught under one of the heavy snow bands, you will likely get 3+ inches by Wednesday morning.
I will have an update sometime by 10:30 PM or so with a new updated snowfall map.
Alex Pickman

Tuesday afternoon thoughts

Winter Weather Advisory in affect through this afternoon**

Travel conditions are deteriorating especially in eastern Kansas through northern Missouri. Temperatures are just below to just above freezing around the area, and we are getting rain, freezing rain, and sleet. The map below shows the areas in which if there is precipitation falling, what I think it would be in the form of. I am basing this off the surface temperatures. This is from around 2:30 PM this afternoon, and not much has changed since then.

See the purple area I have circled including Kansas City. This is where the rain, even though temperatures are above freezing is icing up the roadways. The reason for this is that after all of the cold air we have had the last few days, and the snowfall, the ground and roads are still below freezing, thus the ice is forming. Now like I said yesterday, all of the precipitation is very light. Even with that said, it is still causing big problems on the roadways.

There have been many accidents, some fatal today, so be careful when you are out this afternoon. And if you live in that purple area, even through your car may show 35 degrees, chances are, the roads are still below freezing, and there will be some ice.

Now the area in the pink is where temperatures are at or below freezing, and I think you can expect just about anything in this area, from rain, freezing rain, sleet, and possibly some snow showers. Where I am at in Marceline, we have had freezing rain, and we are hovering right at 32 degrees right now with some sprinkles. Road conditions around here are pretty much the same, with the asphalt below freezing. At least salt works well in this weather unlike last weekend when it didnt matter how much salt you put out, the ice wasnt going to melt. If you put salt out now, the ice will melt just fine.

I do see some good news later this evening on the ice situation. Warmer air is continuing to filter in, and I think most of the area should be above freezing for a few hours overnight before the main storm system approaches, swinging another cold front through the region. This little break in the freezing temperatures will help to melt the ice even more. Once the front pushes through, we will fall below freezing again, and snow will be developing in Kansas, and pushing eastward into Missouri late tonight. There is no chance of snow in Missouri before midnight, so everybody should have time to go out this evening. The snow will start late tonight and go into tomorrow morning. Right now I am thinking 1-3 inches possible from I-70 northward, with the higher totals the farther north you go.

This will create more travel problems in the morning as well. I think the sun should come out Wednesday afternoon as this is a fast moving system. I think any snow that falls tonight and tomorrow morning will last till Christmas due to I am only expecting temperatures to be in the upper teens to mid 20's around the area Wednesday.

Christmas day will warm into the mid to upper 30's, with 40's nearby, and it will be even warmer by Friday- into the 50's as another, stronger storm system develops.

So the active roller coaster continues, and I am expecting it to continue for the nest few weeks.

I will have another update this evening as new data rolls in,

Alex Pickman

Monday, December 22, 2008

Tuesday's system...White Christmas?

Well we had snow developing all afternoon, but with the extremely dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the snow evaporated before hitting the ground. Now the air has began to saturate at the surface, and the precipitation was heavy enough to make it all the way to the ground. Areas that recieved snow generally got a heavy dusting or less. With the very cold and dry air in place, the snow didnt have much moisture to it and it came down dry and powdery.

Now, I no there are a lot of questions about tomorrow, and I will try to answer them in this blog entry.
You may of noticed the winds picking up throughout the day out of the southeast, well this is in response to an approaching storm system. With the increasing southeast wind, we were able to warm into the upper teens to lower 20's, and all locations around the area right now are still warming, and the temperatures will continue rise through the day Tuesday as the winds eventually swith to the southwest then west.
There is an expansive storm system over the center of the country, but it is very disorganized in our region. Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning, and with the atmosphere saturating, it will likely make it all the way to the ground, but it will be LIGHT. I am not expecting anything heavy out of this during the day.

By tomorrow morning the first wave of precipitation will likley be developing in western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Take a look at what I am expecting in terms of precipitation below:

This what I am thinking the radar echos may look like between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM. The area of pink in eastern Kansas and western Missouri is a mix. It is hard to tell what it will consist of, but I would say sleet right near the snow to the north of the mix. Then it would likely change over to amix of sleet, freezing rain/drizzle. Temperatures in this time frame will still be below freezing, so if there is any freezing rain, sleet, or snow, it will all stick.

I have heard many people talking about big ice accumulations and what what not. I see no signs of anything like that happening and I have not heard even one forecast saying anything about large ice accumulations, or really any heavy precipitation. I hear stuff like this everytime there is any winter weather expected. People twist things way out of proportion. Any ice accumulations would possibly be a glazing on roadways, cars, and snow covered surfaces. It would just cause some travel headaches.

Remember those strong winds I was talking about earlier. Well they will continue to blow, warming us to near freezing later in the day. Here is what I am thinking by around 1:00 PM:

The warmer air is filtering in and I think the area will begin to change over to rain, but how far north will the rain make it. Right now, I would say highway 36 may be the freezing line, but that could shift further north or south. The rest of this first wave of precip will continue to slowly press eastward, but just as we are above freezing for a few hours, the main storm system arrives. Look at what I am expecting by around 12:00 AM to 1:00 AM Wednesday:

This will push south and east, and the latest data has the storm tracking a bit further south. If you are hoping for a white Christmas, this is the track you want the storm to take. Right now I would say 1-3 inches possible, but we will have see what the data shows Tuesday. A cold front will swing through Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning witht he snow. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 20's on Wednesday, but just as soon as we cool down, we warm up again on Christmas day into the mid to upper 30's. Then we get a big warm up into the upper 40's to mid 50's around the area on Friday before another cold front pushes through, putting us back into the 20's on Saturday. Then another warm up at the beginning of next week.

So this active roller coaster ride continues in the wild weather pattern. This forecast is extremely complex tomorrow as temperatures will be on the increase, and an approaching cold front, and possible accumulating snow in spots. I will have an update on Tuesday as things begin to unfold.

Alex Pickman

Last night of arctic air...What next?

This is our last night of this brutally cold arctic air as a small warm up is underway through Tuesday. Take a look at the current temperature map I drew below:

As you can see, temperatures are already at this morning's low temperatures. This shows it is going to be a very cold night. With this stron arctic high pressure settling in, we will see the coldest night of the season, and in some spots, the coldest night since January 23, 2003 when we had the last actually brutal arctic outbreak.

I think lows tonight will range from 10 degrees in southern Missouri to -10 degrees in northern Missouri. A Wind Chill Advisory is still in affect for areas in northern Missouri due to the winds blowing 5-15 mph. Wind chill readings will be in the -15 to -25 degrees range overnight, and early Monday morning.

Highs Monday should warm up into the mid to upper teens, and that will feel pretty warm to what we have been experiencing that last couple of days. There could be a couple flurries or snow showers Monday morning in northwest Missouri.

Tuesday is still a tossup to me. With temperatures right near freezing, we could see some snow showers, freezing drizzle, sleet, or rain. I would say a 40 to 50 percent chance of a light mix Tuesday afternoon. Then a stronger disturbence comes through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will likely bring the area some accumulating snow, but where will the snow fall?

I think the snow will be from along I-70 northward. This is where there is a decent likelyhood of a white Christmas, but the rain/snow line could be a bit further north or further south. How much snow will fall? I am still trying to put the peices together on the possible amounts, but there could be some decent totals.

There is another chance of light snow or a wintery mix on Christmas Day as another disturbance quickly moves through. Then there is another storm at the end of the week around Saturday.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Overnight lows...Christmas storm

Take a look at the Sunday night low temperautre map I drew below:

As you can see, the negative temperatures did manage to push into norther Missouri as I expected. I thought maybe they would push a bit further south, more toward I-70, but it was close as temperatures were in the 1-3 degrees range along, and just a bit south of I-70. Overall, the locations that did recieve 0 degrees or below ranges from 0 to -5 degrees.

Highs today (Sunday) will probably be in the single digits from I-70 northward. But I think location along and south of I-70 will be in the low to mid teens.

Lows tonight will range from -5 to -13, possibly up to -15. Locations who get the negative temperatures colder the -10 will be in the snowpacked northern Missouri. The winds blow over the snow and ice, cooling the air down at the surface even more.

Wednesday (Christmas eve) still looks to possible bring accumulating snow. The GFS has been quite consistent with a decent snowstorm developing, and if the scenario plays out, much of the region will get a white Christmas.

There always seems to be an opposite to the models, and there is no exception here. The NAM is not forecasting much snow at all with this Wednesday system. But which models will pull through? I am hoping for the GFS to take control, but both models will likely begin to agree with eath other on a scenario somewhere in between.

We will have to wait and see how it plays out.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Saturday night update

I have a 10:45 PM update on the cold temperatures and the chance of a white Christmas. Lets start out with the cold temperatures...Lows mainly north of I-70 will range from 0 to -5 degrees. Wind chills tonight will be between -10 to -25 degrees on top of that. Tomorrow will be in the single digits along and north of I-70, with low to mid teens to the south. Wind chills tomorrow will be between -5 to -20 degrees. Then Sunday night and early Monday morning is when the coldest air of the season arrives. Lows Sunday night and Monday morning will range from -7 to -10 in Kansas City to -11, -12, -13 to the north of the city! Wind chills by Monday morning will be between -15 to -30+ degrees!

I am expecting that areas which havnt been issued under a Wind Chill Advisory will be put under one by tomorrow night. These areas include southeastern Kansas, and southern and southeastern Missouri.

Now what about the possible storm Christmas eve? Right now, the models look pretty impressive with the snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. It looks like a large area of possibly heavy snow will develop right over Kansas City, and progress eastward. If this occurs, much of the area will have a white Christmas.

I will have an update tomorrow concerning the temperatures for tomorrow night, and the latest thinking on the Christmas eve storm.

Alex Pickman

Arctic air spilling in

Look at the surface map I drew below:

Notice the single digits are spreading into Missouri from the northwest. I have notices many stations in my opinion, underestimating this arctic air. I am expecting Kansas City northward to range from 0 to -5 degrees tonight. I feel pretty confident, the negative temperatures will manage to spread in to northern Missouri. With winds into 20-40 mph range, wind chills will likely be between -10 to -25 degrees tonight.

Highs Sunday will not make it out of the single digits with wind chills still in the -5 to -20 degree range. Now, as I have been saying, Sunday night is when the really frigid air arrives. Lows Sunday night will likely range from -5 to -10 degrees,and there is potential for it to get even colder right near the Iowa border and extreme northwest Missouri. Wind chills will likely be between -10 to -30, possibly -35 degrees! For that reason, a Wind Chill Advisory was issued from 9:00 PM Saturday through Monday morning.

Look in the previous blog entry to see the counties issued under the advisory.

My thoughs are still the same on the possible Christmas eve storm. Here is what I think; a series of about 3 fast moving, shortwave systems will move through the area. The first one will likely move through on Monday with a chance of snow. The second one should move through Tuesday night and Christmas eve with the possibility of accumulating snow (still have no clue as to how much accumulation). There is also a chance of another fast moving system to possibly bring some light snow Wednesday night and Christmas Day.

This active pattern should continue for the next few weeks, and at least I think we should get a white Christmas out of this. If you are wondering what it takes to get a white Christmas? There has to be an at least 1 inch or greater snow depth at some point during the day.

I will have an update at 10:45 about the Christmas week storms.

Alex Pickman

Advancing arctic front...Christmas storm?

Here is the current location of the intense arctic front.

Temperatures will be crashing tonight, and the winds will be picking up to 20-40 mph. This create very dangerous the -10 to -30 range. Here is the map showing the Wind Chill Advisory in effect until Monday morning below:

I am thinking lows Sunday morning will be in the 0 to -5 range across the area, north od I-70. And highs on Sunday wont make it out of the single digits. Lows Monday morning will likely be in the -5 to -15 degress range! Highs should rebound into the teens on Monday.

Then we turn our attention to the possible snowstorm Tuesday night into Christmas eve. The models are showing accumulating snow possible, and right now, I think we will have a white Christmas as it only takes an inch or more of snow on the ground.

I will have an update as temperatures drop, and the brutally cold air takes over.

Alex Pickman

Friday, December 19, 2008

Wind chill Advisory!

A Wind Chill Advisory is in affect from Saturday night through Monday morning. A strong arctic front will push through the area Saturday afternoon. As the front pushes through, winds behind the front will range from 20-40 mph through Monday morning. This will create dangerous wind chill readings. This is why the advisory was issued for the area. Take a look at the map below:

As you can see, I am expecting wind chills to be between -10 and -30 degrees. If you are going to be going or doing anything outside on Saturday, I would get it done in the morning, because when this front arrives, it will get cold!

Here is my temperature forecast around the area.

Highs Saturday before the front arrives will be in the mid to upper 20's. Lows Sunday morning will be between 0 and -5 degrees. Highs will likely only make it into the single digits on Sunday, then the really cold air arrives Sunday night and Monday morning. Lows Monday morning will range from -5 to -15 degrees! Now add that with 20-40 mph! Monday should warm up into the mid to upper teens.

Now with a potent arctic front coming through, you must think there is a chance of some precipitation. Well there is a chance of some snow showers out ahead of the front, probably between noon and 2:00 PM. It will be very light snow with maybe a dusting possible in some locations.

After this arctic blast, we turn our attention to Christmas eve. I see a strong possibility of a possible snowstorm Tuesday into Wednesday, I would 50% chance. Right now the models are showing accumulating snow, and I am agreeing, but I have no clue as to how much snow will fall, but I do think we will have a white Christmas as it takes 1 inch or more of snow depth. There is also a slight chance of some light snow on Christmas Day.

Alex Pickman

Thursday Ice Storm...Whats next?

A storm system entered western Kansas on Thursday, pushing a warm front northward through Missouri. This trigggered rain south of the front and freezing rain north of the front. The front managed to push through Kansas City, warming temperatures to above freezing and changed the freezing rain to rain. Areas in northern Missouri, where the front couldnt make it, stayed in the freezing rain most of the night until the low pressure center passed near.

This low was very fast moving. Look at the map showing the location of the storm on Thursday morning:

Here was the storms location by 3:00 AM:

Kansas City warmed up to 50 degrees by 3:00 AM. The counter clockwise rotation brought in warm moist air from the south. The warm air lasted just long enough to melt the ice and snow, but notice the cold front just entering northwest Missouri. By 8:00 AM, the cold front has passed through Kansas City, and temperatures were in the upper 20's. Now this fast moving system is affecting areas of the northeast with heavy snow and rain.

This cold front is not the noticable system, even with the 50 to 27 degrees temperature drop.

The big change comes Saturday night with a vigerous arctic blast. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 20's, and dropping to 0 to -5 degrees Sunday morning. Then here comes the really cold air. Highs will only be in the single digits on Sunday, and by Monday morning, the lows will likely range from -10 to -15 degrees around the area with wind chill near -30 degrees. It should warm up into the mid to upper teens on Monday.

The passage of the front will also bring a chance of some snow on Saturday.

There is also a storm due in Christmas week, actually right around Christmas eve. There are a lot of questions with this storm, and they wont be answered for a few days. If this storm takes a good path, and the timing is right we could see a snowstorm, and a white Christmas.

Right now highs on Christmas Day looks to be in the upper 30's

Alex Pickman