Friday, August 28, 2009

Friday weather and next cold front

Lows this morning were in the 60's with low heavy cloud cover and some drizzle in spots across the area. There are some showers in central Missouri as well. It will be tough to forecast high temperatures today with all the cloud cover. There is nearly no flow at the surface, so the clouds are moving very slowly and will likely stick around into the afternoon. We will have to rely on the sun to burn these clouds away today.

I am still going to stick with my forecast for highs in the low to mid 70's across the area, but locations in northeast Missouri may stay in upper 60's with cloud cover. I think the clouds should begin to burn off west to east later this afternoon.

Lows tonight should be in the mis to upper 50's out ahead of the next cold front. Take a look at the 12 hour forecast surface map:

This next front is a stronger cold front and is going to rush in some cool and dry Canadian air into our region for the next several days. We may even see some lows this weekend into the 40's all the down to I-70. Highs for the next severeal days will likely be in the upper 60's for northern Missouri and low to mid 70's from highway 36 southward.

We may have another chance of rain late next week, but I will discuss that later

Alex Pickman

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Unseasonably cool week

**Showers and thunderstorms developed lastnight and dumped some heavy rain in some spots in a line southwest to northeast between St. Joseph, MO and Kansas City, MO/KS.** Take a look at the estimated rainfall map below:

Take a look at the current surface map from late this morning:

There is heavy cloud cover this morning which you can see by the red dots on the map above and where I drew in the "oversized" green area, the may be some drizzle and showers this morning and afternoon. Areas along the front and out ahead of the cold front may have some thunderstorms as well. With the cold front pushing through, and cloudy kies all day, it will be hard to predict high temperatures today. But overall highs should top out in the low to mid 70's with mid to upper 80's in southern and souteastern Missouri.

The cold front should completely push through in the next 36 hours and bring in a cool and refreshingly dry airmass. Highs tomorrow will generally be in the mid 70's around the area, but Saturday, Sunday and Monday will likely have highs in the upper 60's to low 70's with night time lows possibly making a dive into the 40's. The 40's may even reach south of I-70. The cooler weather will continue into next week and our next chance of rain will come in sometime Wednesday or Thursday.

I will have a new blog tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tuesday forecast and next chance of rain

Sorry, I havnt had anytime to blog this past week due to me etting situated in college and stuff, but I now have time, so expect regular blog entries. Right now I thought I would discuss tomorrows forecast breifly.

Highs tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 80's with partly cloudy skies. So tomorrow will be a very nice day, and continue our dry streak to 6 days in a row, making it the longest dry streak of the year. Can you believe that we have gone the entire Summer without a dry streak over a week long.

This should by tomorrow night or Wednesday with moisture building in and an appraoching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday and maybe Thursday before a "Fall" like airmass sets in with highs in the 70's and lows in the low to mid 50's into next week. There will even likely be some locations dropping into the upper 40's.

I will have a new blog tomorrow afternoon.

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Wednesday night update

A cold front is approaching from the northwest and numeroush showers and thunderstorms have developed all across the area. As a result the NWS has issued a Flood Watch for most of the area as heavy rain is possible. The storms will have heavy rain, and a lot of lightning, but the chance of severe weather is prety slim, but isolated warning may be issued from time to time.

I think some locations may recieve 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts possibe as training thunderstorms could occur. This rain is just making the flooding problems worse as many location over the past 5 days have picked up 4-10 inches!

Once the front passes through late tonight or tomorrow, the chance of rain will be wiped out and a cooler airmass will set in with highs in the 70's and lows in the low to mid 50's for a couple days.

My next entry will likely be Sunday.

Alex Pickman

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Tuesday weather

The cold front that brought all the rain last few day has pushed through well south of the area and high pressure is in control. The front cooled the temperatures down and high this afternoon will only be in the upper 70's and low 80's arounf the area. The front really wasnt that strong, so it didnt do much for the humidity and you can tell by the cloudier skies this morning. This moisture will be fuel for tonight's chance of rain and thunderstorms.

Still adding thoughts...

Monday, August 17, 2009

Rain totals..Next round!

There is a band along highway 36 that had some pretty impressive rainfall last night in upwards of 5 to 6+ inches. Chillicothee, MO picked up 6.65" just last night!

Here are a few more rain totals from locations around the area:

Chillicothe - 6.65"
St. Joseph - 2.90"
Trenton - 2.20"
Liberty - 2.75"
Cameron - 2.75"
Kansas City - 1.70"

The area of rain that caused all of that rain has moved to the northeast finally, but there is a new, large area of rain and heavy thunderstorms in eastern Kansas this morning moving into the area. This will stick around well into the afternoon and likely dump another 1-3 inches of rain in locations that picked up all the rain last night.

The data is showing heavy rains through Wednesday, so I think some locations will end up with 8 to 10 inches of rain when all is said and done. The good news is that a stronger cold front will push through Wednesday night that will bring in a refreshing air mass with highs in the 70's and lows in the lower 50's with 40's possible in northern Missouri.

I will discuss this later, right now we need to focus on the excessive rain.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Heavy thunderstorms tonight

The showers and thunderstorms from Saturday continued into this morning and some of the rain totals were pretty heavy with some locations recieving over 2 inches. Plattsburg, Missouri got over 4 inches of rain from Saturday through late this morning!

The reason for the rain and thunderstorms is a very slow moving a cold front that by tonight will be stretched from Kansas City northeastward and southwestward into the southwest states. With a plum of tropical moisture riding along the front , thunderstorms have been the result and our next chance will come late this afternoon and overnight. I think a band of showers and heavy thunderstorms will form north of I-70 and there could be some excessive rainfall. It is hard to tell where the heaviest rain will fall, but I think some totals could exceed 5 inches.

The heavy thunderstorms will continue into early Monday morning with a brief break before yet another large area of rain and heavy thunderstorms moves through the area with another 1-3 inches possible. The front should stall out on Monday and the heavy rain chances will continue through Wednesday with the tropical moisture in place. I think between tonight and Wednesday, some areas could recieve 8"+ of rain. This will likely lead to some flash flooding.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Showers today and the tropics

A dsturbence that derived in the southwestern states out of the monsoon moisture is tracking across the region and showers and thunderstorms will likely be the result. But, they will be very scattered and the chance of any given location recieveing rain is only around 30 percent. Other than maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm today, skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 80's. So overall, another nice day today.

Now on to the tropics. The Atlantic Hurricane season has been extermely inactive for the past few months with not even a Tropical Depression, but finally, the Atlantic basin waking up and getting quite active. The first named storm of the season has formed and has been named Ana.

Ana originated from a disturbence off of Africa, and quickly became Tropical Depression #2. Convectivity and thunderstorms increased on August 12th and it looked like it would become a Tropical Strom, but just as it was looking healthy, it diminished to a swirl of clouds and even lossed TD status and bacame a "remnant low". The system managed to get its act together again and has now been named Ana with winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1005 mb. So, it is a weak system, but may strengthen even more.

Take a look at the current satelite image of Ana:

The system is very small and there are a lot of uncertainties with it. It is moving westerly, and the NHC has it possible reaching 70 mph wind speed by next Thursday. Here is the projected path of the system:

Here are some of the uncertanties with this system. It is very small, dry air is wrapping into it, and it is dealing with some wind shear. With it dealing with wind shear and dry air, the system is very proned to weakening as it is very small. If it manages to make it through and survive the next couple of days, Ana might strengthen more.

There is another TD behind Ana, the is likely to become Tropical Storm Bill this afternoon and Cluadette looks to be soon to follow.

Alex Pickman

Friday, August 14, 2009

Nice Friday

It is finally Friday and it will be a nice day with partly cloudy skies and high topping out in the upper 80's to noear 90 around the area.

Take a look at the current surface map late this morning:

It has been around four days since our last rainfall, making it the second longest dry stretch of the Summer, but that looks to possibly change tomorrow with a disturbence moves across the region.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Quick update

The calm weather continues and this will be the case for Friday. Expect partly cloudy skies Friday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80's and some low 90's.

I have been busy getting ready for school and stuff, so I havnt been able to blog in a few day, but I will have a new blog tomorrow dicussing Friday's nice weather, our next chance of rain, maybe some cooler weather, and the tropics.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Very HOT Saturday...Updated

It is a hot Saturday afternoon at 4:00 PM, but temperatures have cooled down a degree or two since 3:00 PM, so here is the surface map at 3:00 PM this afternoon with todays high temperatures and the front I drew in:

The front is just inching our way, so after highs today in the low to upper 90's with 97 degree weather in Kansas City, Sunday will hold much of the same with very similar high temperatures. Eastern Kansas and weatern Missouri will likely be in the 95 to 100 degree weather. Accompanie this with high humidity and dewpoints in the 70's to near 80 in spots, heat indicies will likely be between 100 and 108 degrees.

One thing that has been in our favor during this heat has been the strong southerly winds keeping the air mixing and becoming stagnant. This helps with the humidity, but also with the air quality, keeping it pretty good. Sunday will have a little bit weaker winds, so you will feel the heat more, but they will be strong enough to keep the air mixing - between 15 and 20 mph.

The front should continue its inching path toward us, and the data is saying it will push through. This will likely lead to a chance of some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday. There could be some heavy rainfall, but I will wait till tomorrow to talk about this.

Morning entry is below.


It was a very warm night last night with temperatures in the 70's and high humidity. Right now as of 7:00 AM, it is fairly cool outside, but later today, the winds will increase out of the south gust to 20 - 30 mph once again and set the stage for the heat to pour into the area.

In preparation, the NWS has issued Heat Advisories for the area. Highs today should range from the low 90's in northern Missouri, to the upper 90's around the Kansas City area. Along with the heat, dewpoints will be in the 70's. This steamy airmass will make it feel even hotter as heat indicies rise to 105 at times.

More thoughts later this afternoon...

Alex Pickman

Friday, August 7, 2009

Morning MCS...Surging warm front!

A MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is tracking through Iowa and is now entering Illinois. The southern part of the system is moving through northern Missouri with some showers and thunderstorms, but nothing significant. Last night I was thinking the possibility of an MCS developing and tracking right through us, but the front just surged through this morning, keeping the activity from highway 36 northward.

Take a look at current surface map at 11:00 AM...I drew in the warm front:

With the winds increasing behind the front, and clearing skies, highs today will likely be in the 90's in many areas. Northeastern Missouri may remain in the upper 80's due to rain cooled air and cloud cover, but the rest of the area should expect low to mid 90's with increasing winds. Dewpoints will also be increasing into the 70's today, heat indicies will be between 95 and 100 degrees.

With lows tonight in the mid to upper 70's, the stage is set for a very hot Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90's around the area and heat indicies between 100 and 105+ degrees! Sunday will also be hot with highs in the 90's again, but then we may get a break by early next week with another cold front and thunderstorms, but lets get through this weekend first.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Thursday forecast...Will it heat up?

Temperatures are in the 50's and low 60's this morning to start off what should be a great day with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80's around the area with an esterly wind keeping us on the cool side once again. But, will this cool weather last?

The answer to that lies with a developing warm front pushing our way over southwest Kansas and Oklahoma. It will continue to head toward us today and tonight, and later tonight there may be just enough lift out ahead of the front to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms to form. As of right now I am seeing nothing even near the front, but there is an area of showers and thunderstorms in Central Nebraska heading our direction. If it doesnt fall apart, I would say it will get here by tomorrow morning, and be out of here before noon. The SPC has locations in northwest Missouri under a slight risk for severe weather. I would say fron Kansas City northward and from Cameron, MO north and westward. The chance of severe weather is pretty slim.

The warm front should surge through during the day on Friday and so will the heat and humidity. Highs on Friday will likely be in the low to mid 90s around the area. The heat should will stick around through Sunday with the hottest day looking to be Saturday.

I will have a new update Friday.

Alex Pickman

Monday, August 3, 2009

Hot Monday...T-storms?

There were some thunderstorms this morning as the warm front pushed through. Now warm and humid air has surged into the region as expected. Dewpoints are well into the 70's and temperatures have surged into the low to mid 90's.

With a cold front to the north of us, there is a lot of energy to be released, in this case possibly some severe thunderstorms tonight. Here is the risk area issued by the SPC:

The main threats are strong, damaging winds and large hail. I will have an update later if anything develops.

Alex Pickman

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Nice day today...Will it heat up?

Well many areas as expected tied or broke their record low this morning. Which in the Summer means it was a very nice night with lows in the 50's. Will this nice weather continue? It will for at least one more day. After the record lows this morning, we should manage to warm into the low to 80's today with abundant sunshine. It should be a great a great pool afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 60's, a bit warmer the what we have been experiencing recently.

There is a warm front in Kansas pressing eastward toward the area and the air behind it very warm and humid. This may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms to develop in eastern Kansas and Missouri overnight. I would say mainly after 4:00 AM, but some may develop anytime after midnight. At this tim eof year, there is always a chance a storm could turn severe with damaging winds the main threat as microbursts are pretty frequent.

The warm front will push through Monday morning and any thunderstorm activity will lie along and out ahead of it. Once the front pushes through, warm and humid air will spill in. I think highs will be in the low to mid 90's across the area with near 100 degree heat nearby to the west of Kansas City. Along with the heat will be high dewpoints in the 70's. This will make the temperature feel like it is in the 95 to 100 degrees range....even hotter west of KC.

There is much more to discuss about this weeks weather, but I will wait until tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Misty this morning....Nice afternoon

Well a cold front is pushing through the area this morning leaving cloudy and misty conditions. Take a look at the surface map this morning:

This is a weak front, but will leave us with a great afternoon as once it passes through, the clouds will begin to clear and temperatures will warm into the upper 70's and lower 80's. From the way it looks right right now we may once again break another record low in many locations!

Alex Pickman