Thursday, November 19, 2009

Thursday forecast and 2009/2010 Winter forecast!

It is cool and foggy this morning with low clouds. The NWS has locations just south and west of Kansas City this morning under a Dense Fog Advisory as conditions there were very favorable for fog to develop overnight with temperatures dropping to near the dewpoint. Any fog should be burned off my 10:00 this morning. The low clouds will burn off and move from southwest to northeast and the sun will come out today. Highs around the are will likely top out in the upper low to mid 50's. So it will be a pretty decent day.

It should be dry and in the 50's through Sunday. Now here is the 2009/2010 Winter Forecast! Here is the link:

Alex Pickman

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Quick update

We are finally about to get rid of this stubborn storm system, but we still have to deal with it today. As the storm pulls away we are still getting the wrap around showers and drizzle. The best chance of precipitation will remain this morning with probably a 60% chance, but there will be a chance of showers/drizzle through the afternoon. There will likely be a steady area of rain around the Knob Knoster/Sedalia area later this afternoon pressing southward. Temperatures today wont be as cold with highs in the low to mid 40's. The good news will be that the sun should return for tomorrow and will start a nice warming trend with 50's for a few days

I am tracking another storm that could be significant, and may bring our next chance of snowflakes. It will be hard as this storm will once again not be able to tap into arctic air and will need to be pretty strong to bring some snowflakes. We will see how it plays out in the coming days. I will have a new blog on this next storm later this afternoon.

Alx Pickman

Monday, November 16, 2009

Strong storm and Old man Winter!..Updated!

Moderate to heavy snow is falling in northwest Missouri and northeastern Kansas this morning and it is accumulating rapidly. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued in northern Kansas for several counties near the border with several inches of snow expected and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended further south. This is a very tough forecast as warmer air is wrapping into the storm, so it may switch back and forth from snow to rain all day and overnight.

Here is a picture of the snow at Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, MO:


I have been tracking a storm system for several days now, that is and will continue to affect our weather for the next few days. Take a look at the 500 mb map below:

This is a strong and very complex storm system that is just meandering across Kansas as there is no steering pattern. This storm is cut off from the main jet stream and is what is called a cut off low. It is creating its own cold air and this cold air is wrapping in on the north and west side of the system. This air will be cold enought to support snow on Monday in northern and eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. As a result the NWS service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas from northwestern Missouri to point southwest into Kansas.

Temperatures will be in the mid 30's throughout the day on Monday and the snow could be qite havy in the morning with accumulations. Locations from about Atchison and St. Joseph to the Iowa border may pick up on the order 1-5 inches of snow wih totals increasing the further north and west you go. The NWS is about to upgrade a few counties in northern Kansas to a Winter Storm Warning as there could be some pretty high totals on the order of 5+ inches. I do not think it will snow all day, but it may switch back and forth through the evening. Temperatures will remain fairly consistant through Monday night in the mid 30's.

This will be the first snowflakes of the season and the start of what looks to be a very active couple of weeks.

I will have an update later.

Alex Pickman

Friday, November 6, 2009

Nice weekend!

Take a look at the current surface map below:

Winds are breezy from the southwest and temperatures are already in the low to mid 60's across the area. There were some low clouds this morning, but it should be sunny by this afternoon with breezy southwest winds and highs in the low to mid 70's with a few upper 70's possible.

Saturday and Sunday should be a very similar day with highs in the low to mid 70's. Our next cold is due Monday.

I will have a new blog tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Huge warm up underway!

Its was a frosty start this morning but with abundant sunshine today, the temperatures should rise quickly. Highs should top out in the low to mid 60's with mabe some upper 50's across northrn and eastern Missouri. Winds should increase from the south overnight as a warm front pushes through and lows tonight will be in the 50's.

Take a look at the 500 mb forecast map fpr Friday morning:

A ridge has built in and this will set us up for a great weekend. Highs Friday afternoon should surge into the low to mid 70's around the area with breezy southerly winds. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend and highs will likely be in mid to upper 70's. The warm weather will last through Sunday with 70's once again.
I will have a new blog entry tomorrow.
Alex Pickman