More heavy rain...Arctic air?...Updated!

A **Tornado Warning** has been issued for northern St. Clair county untill 1:15 AM.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR APPLETON CITY...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OFCLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

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The setup tonight is going to bring some locations very heavy rain fall. Take a look at the current surface map:

Notice the big temperature contrast...Storms thrive under these conditions, and a surface storm developed in western Kansas today and is now moving quickly along an arctic cold front, and with abundant Pacific tropical moisture, we have another wet storm on our hands.

A large, but fairly narrrow band of rain has developed and is training over the same areas dumping heavy rain amounts. The SPC has issued a flash Flood Watch much of the area as a result. This combined with Saturday night's rain isnt helping as the ground is already excessively saturated in many locations. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

The rain should continue overnight and I am expecting a swath of very heavy rain to fall, but where will this band be located?

The above map shows where I am thinking the heaviest rain will fall overnight with 1-2, maybe 3 inches of rain falling. This band could shift a little bit north or south.

There is a slight risk for severe weather, generally south of I-70, but the main threat would be hail and strong winds. There have been some severe weather reports, so i wouldnt rule out a storm reaching severe limits. The strongest of the storms will likely reside in southern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, where I think an isolated tornado is possible.

Tomorrow morning around 7 or 8 AM should be fairly warm with 50's and 60's around the area, but if you look at he first map again, that arctic front is poised to blast through and by Tuesday evening, we will be in the 20's. By the time you wake up on Wednesday, temperatures will be in the teens. Highs Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be only in the 30's and low 40's around the area.

I will have an update tomorrow.

Alex Pickman