Monday, March 23, 2009

Thunderstorms tonight - Severe potential

I havnt blogged in a while, and I meant to a couple days ago to discuss the storm system that is affecting us now. So lets take a look at the current surface map below:

Winds are blasting out of the south at 20 to 40 plus mph!

Earlier today, there was a dry line out ahead of the cold front in Kansas, and thunderstorms began to fire along this boundary. Now the cold front has caught up with the dry line, and has became just a cold front as you can see above. The SPC has the area under a slight risk for severe weather, and a moderate risk in southeastern Kansas.

The main threats from the storms would be hail, strong winds, and heavy rains. There is a slight tornado risk, but it is very slim as the ingredients just arent quite there. Thunderstorms will congeal into a solid line and I think there will be some severe weather reports, but the main threat with this is excessive rainfall as the ingredients are there for training echos. This line will likely be slow moving and train over the same areas. if you get under this line of storms, you may recieve 1-2 inches of rain.

By early Tuesday morning, the line of thunderstorms will be across central Missouri, and continue pressing eastward. The cold front pushes through in the afternoon and temperatures will drop noticably this afternoon and overnight.

Here is a brief description of what I am expecting overnight, and Tuesday morning:

Overnight tonight - Showers and thunderstorms likely late, spreading slowly fom east to west. Strong winds possible in storms. Heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible. Lows in the 50's with winds strong out of the south at 20 to 40+ mph.

Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms likely, ending before afternoon with locally heavy rain possible. Temperatures in the 50's and 60's in the morning before dropping into the 40's and 30's in the afternoon and overnight as the front passes through.

After we get this storm over with, there is another much stronger storm ahowing up towards the end of the week, and tere may be some cold air for the system to tap into. There will likely be a snowstorm near our area!

I will have an update tomorrow:

Alex Pickman


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