Friday, March 27, 2009

When will it snow and how much?

This storm is getting very tricky to forecast as it is just too far south, and warm air is pushing in right now. take a look at the surface map below:

With the low in eastern Oklahoma, the counter clockwise flow is trying to draw in some warmer air. It is very slowly pressing northwest. If this continues, then we likely NOT see a changeover from rain/sleet to snow in the morning. It will likely wait till 10:00 AM to 1:00PM before the changeover occurs. This would help keep some of the snow totals down.

Another problem is the storm is just too far south. In any other storm, a storm tracking this far south wouldnt have a heavy snowband in our area, and maybe not even snow at all. But this is a potent and stregthening upper low. The circulation is so large we will likely be on the edge of the comma. The more southern track is going to shift the snow totals to the south a little bit.Add Image

With that said here is my snowfall forecast through midnight Saturday:

I have the heaviest of snow postioned from around Pleasenton, KS through central Missouri.This is not to say that areas northwest of the heavy snow band cant get in on any of that. If we can get a quick changeover to snow, then the totals will expand.

I will have an updated snowfall forecast in the morning. Until then we will have to deal with some rain, frezing rain, and sleet tonight. So conditions will likely be slick in the morning. Expect a change over to snow sometime late morning or early afternoon as of right now.

This is very very difficult to track, but I am trying my best to give you a reliable forecast.

Alex Pickman


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