Monday, December 22, 2008

Tuesday's system...White Christmas?

Well we had snow developing all afternoon, but with the extremely dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the snow evaporated before hitting the ground. Now the air has began to saturate at the surface, and the precipitation was heavy enough to make it all the way to the ground. Areas that recieved snow generally got a heavy dusting or less. With the very cold and dry air in place, the snow didnt have much moisture to it and it came down dry and powdery.

Now, I no there are a lot of questions about tomorrow, and I will try to answer them in this blog entry.
You may of noticed the winds picking up throughout the day out of the southeast, well this is in response to an approaching storm system. With the increasing southeast wind, we were able to warm into the upper teens to lower 20's, and all locations around the area right now are still warming, and the temperatures will continue rise through the day Tuesday as the winds eventually swith to the southwest then west.
There is an expansive storm system over the center of the country, but it is very disorganized in our region. Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning, and with the atmosphere saturating, it will likely make it all the way to the ground, but it will be LIGHT. I am not expecting anything heavy out of this during the day.

By tomorrow morning the first wave of precipitation will likley be developing in western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Take a look at what I am expecting in terms of precipitation below:

This what I am thinking the radar echos may look like between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM. The area of pink in eastern Kansas and western Missouri is a mix. It is hard to tell what it will consist of, but I would say sleet right near the snow to the north of the mix. Then it would likely change over to amix of sleet, freezing rain/drizzle. Temperatures in this time frame will still be below freezing, so if there is any freezing rain, sleet, or snow, it will all stick.

I have heard many people talking about big ice accumulations and what what not. I see no signs of anything like that happening and I have not heard even one forecast saying anything about large ice accumulations, or really any heavy precipitation. I hear stuff like this everytime there is any winter weather expected. People twist things way out of proportion. Any ice accumulations would possibly be a glazing on roadways, cars, and snow covered surfaces. It would just cause some travel headaches.

Remember those strong winds I was talking about earlier. Well they will continue to blow, warming us to near freezing later in the day. Here is what I am thinking by around 1:00 PM:

The warmer air is filtering in and I think the area will begin to change over to rain, but how far north will the rain make it. Right now, I would say highway 36 may be the freezing line, but that could shift further north or south. The rest of this first wave of precip will continue to slowly press eastward, but just as we are above freezing for a few hours, the main storm system arrives. Look at what I am expecting by around 12:00 AM to 1:00 AM Wednesday:

This will push south and east, and the latest data has the storm tracking a bit further south. If you are hoping for a white Christmas, this is the track you want the storm to take. Right now I would say 1-3 inches possible, but we will have see what the data shows Tuesday. A cold front will swing through Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning witht he snow. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 20's on Wednesday, but just as soon as we cool down, we warm up again on Christmas day into the mid to upper 30's. Then we get a big warm up into the upper 40's to mid 50's around the area on Friday before another cold front pushes through, putting us back into the 20's on Saturday. Then another warm up at the beginning of next week.

So this active roller coaster ride continues in the wild weather pattern. This forecast is extremely complex tomorrow as temperatures will be on the increase, and an approaching cold front, and possible accumulating snow in spots. I will have an update on Tuesday as things begin to unfold.

Alex Pickman


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home