Saturday, December 20, 2008

Arctic air spilling in

Look at the surface map I drew below:

Notice the single digits are spreading into Missouri from the northwest. I have notices many stations in my opinion, underestimating this arctic air. I am expecting Kansas City northward to range from 0 to -5 degrees tonight. I feel pretty confident, the negative temperatures will manage to spread in to northern Missouri. With winds into 20-40 mph range, wind chills will likely be between -10 to -25 degrees tonight.

Highs Sunday will not make it out of the single digits with wind chills still in the -5 to -20 degree range. Now, as I have been saying, Sunday night is when the really frigid air arrives. Lows Sunday night will likely range from -5 to -10 degrees,and there is potential for it to get even colder right near the Iowa border and extreme northwest Missouri. Wind chills will likely be between -10 to -30, possibly -35 degrees! For that reason, a Wind Chill Advisory was issued from 9:00 PM Saturday through Monday morning.

Look in the previous blog entry to see the counties issued under the advisory.

My thoughs are still the same on the possible Christmas eve storm. Here is what I think; a series of about 3 fast moving, shortwave systems will move through the area. The first one will likely move through on Monday with a chance of snow. The second one should move through Tuesday night and Christmas eve with the possibility of accumulating snow (still have no clue as to how much accumulation). There is also a chance of another fast moving system to possibly bring some light snow Wednesday night and Christmas Day.

This active pattern should continue for the next few weeks, and at least I think we should get a white Christmas out of this. If you are wondering what it takes to get a white Christmas? There has to be an at least 1 inch or greater snow depth at some point during the day.

I will have an update at 10:45 about the Christmas week storms.

Alex Pickman


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