Warm weather...Next rain chance

Well it has been a while since I blogged last due to me being in Chicago for a week so lets get started with dscussing this warm weather we are experincing right now. The very nice weather has been dominating the pattern for our part of the country for a few days now and should continue through Monday. Highs on Monday will being the upper 80's and low 90's across the area.

A cold will be approaching Monday and out ahead of it along with the warm air, the humidity will also be on the rise. This may allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop sometime Monday afternoon and evening as the front pushed through. There is a chance for somr severe weather, but I think the best chance for rain and possibly severe storms will remain near highway 36 and points north.

The warm weather will continue into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80's with a chance of some showers. By Wednesday the front will be south of the area, but it will cloudy with a decent chance of some showers. Highs Wednesday will be cool considering we have been almost hot the past couple of days. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60's.

The chances of rain through Wednesday look to be last for a while, I think it is getting time to start watering lawns. I will have an update Monday regarding the warm weather and thunderstorm potential. The risk for severe weather is slight, but it does exist.

Alex Pickman

Rain chances?

Saturday was a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 80's. Actually Saturday was the warmest day in 2009 so far with 87 degrees at KCI. During the day yesterday, the heating and humidity caused numerous cumulous clouds to develop. Some of the clouds grew enough to become showers and thunderstorms. The rain was scattered and mainly located in northwest Missouri, but estimated precipitation had over an inch in some spots.

Today (Sunday) should be quite similar with numerous cumulous clouds developing with the heating of the day. With highs in the low to mid 80's a few showers and thunderstorms could develop. They will be scattered innature, but with fairlyhigh dewpoints, any storms could produce very heavy downpours. And as with yesterday as I mentioned, precip estimates had over an inch in spots.

Rain chances increase as we head into Monday due to a storm system approaching from the southeast. Take a look at the 18z GFS 500 mb forecast valid Monday:



You can see the low in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to become much more numerous and last all day Monday and into Tuesday. But why in the storm arriving from the southeast to northwest?

Well look at the spacing between the black lines in the center of the country. This would be the flow aloft which gives storms systems the direction and momentum. There is virtually no directional flow aloft so the storm is drifting slowly to the northwest.

There is potential for some heavy rain with this system Monday and Tuesday. I would say up to two inches in some spots right now. With more cloud cover Monday through Wednesday, highs should be in the 70's, But I think dry weather and low 80's return next week. There is no chance of severe weather through Tuesday.

I will not be able to update the blog until this weekend because I will be in Chicago. So here is a quick breakdown.

Sunday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance of rain 40%. Highs in the low to mid 80's.
Monday - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of rain 70%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.
Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of rain 70%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.
Wednesday - Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain 0%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.

Rest of the week - partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Alex Pickman

Warming trend

Sorry I havnt had any time to update the blog until now. Well I missed disussing a couple of severe weather event including a tornado in Kirksville, MO which I will try to discuss tomorrow, and a Sunday morning FROST in some locations with lows in the mid 30's! The crazy weather is now taking a break as a large area of high pressure is moving into the picture. take a look at the 500 mb forecast Tuesday:



You can see the very large are of high pressure which is dominating the weather this week. When you have a ridge of high pressure, the air becomes dense and sinks, causing it to warm at the surface. Highs on tursday will be in the mid 70's to low 80's around the area.

Since the air is sinking due to the high, there will be no chance of rain as clouds need lift to form. The high is also blocking cold fronts from geting to the area. Instead the fronts, make it to southern Minnisota and into Nebraska where they stall out and fall apart. This ridge will eventually move out and allow the fronts to approach us again. With that said our next xhance of rain will arrive between Saturday and Monday.

Expect a nice warmup through Thursday with highs near 80 or better around the area. I will talk about the Kirksville tornadoes tomorrow. And yes I said tornaodes, there were 2!

Alex Pickman

Sunday Weather...next storm

It will be a below average temperature wise on Sunday with highs in the low to upper 60's. Take a look at the 700 mb relative humidity forecast for tomorrow:

Notice the dark green shades. This is higher relative humidity. If your area is green, you can generally expect it to be cloudy. The reason for the clouds is a small upper level disturbence moving through the area. Take a look at the 18z GFS 500 mb map below:

You can see the disturbence (look for the X or vort max) moving across northern Missouri Sunday through Sunday night. This may allow some sprinkles or showers to form. There is only a 20 or 30% chance of rain tomorrow, but it will be a nuicience if one finds your backyard.

Our next decent chance of rain and thunderstorms wont arrive until Tuesday night and Wednesday. Here is the 18z GFS 500 mb forecast for Tuesday night:

The rain totals shown in this forecast is due to a warm front lifting north, but the best chance of rain wont come till Wednesday night as a cold front approaches.

There is a chance of severe weather with this next system, but it is still a long ways out so we will have to see how the ingredients unfold over the next few days. After tomorrow, the rest of the week looks warm with highs back in the 70's!

Alex Pickman

Saturday weather

It will be an awesome Saturday with lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 60's and low 70's around the area. High pressure will move in on Sunday and you would thing warm and sunny weather, well, there will be a disturbence moving through the mid and upper layers of the atmophere. The may allow some sprinkles or a few showers to fall.

The next chance of rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm front lifts north, then a cold front pushed through.

Enjoy this great weather.

Alex Pickman

Friday MCS

Wow, it feels like a long time since I have typed a new blog. I have been way to busy over the past week or so that I could not find the time to type a new blog. Well now I have a break so lets talk about what is happening this morning. Take a look at the satelite image I borrowed from NBC Action News.com:




This a very well organized and mature MCS or Mesoscale Convective System. The southern part of the system is producing a very intense line of thunderstorms with damaging winds the main threat.


So what does this mean for us? Well rain will spread is from west to east, but will be limited more to I-70 and southward when it does so. There is a strong likelyhood of some strong to severe thunderstorms near and south of I-70, especially down toward southwest Missouri as that intense line of storms nears the area.

I think more moderate to heavy rain will begin to develop north of the river as the mature MCS continues to strengthen. So I think rain is likely across the entire state today. The good news is this is a pretty fast moving system, and pretty much as soon as the rain ends, the sun should begin poking through. Highs should be in the 70's today. A cold front will push through tonight and it will likely get fairly windy as it passes through.

The weekend looks very good with sunny skies Saturday and highs in the upper 60's and low 70's around the area. Now on Sunday, high pressure will move into the region and you would think that would mean nice weather, and it will. But with a disturbence moving through the mid and upper layers of the atmosphere, a few sprinkles or showers are possible.

There will be a warm front, that will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the a cold front bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Now I missed discussing the weather event on May 7th. Well rain and thunderstorms dropped south out of Iowa. A couple of the storms stregthened, and one moved into Livingston and Grundy counties where a tornado warning was issued. A small tonado did touch down near Gallitin, MO, uprooting some trees. Now when a tornado warning is issued in the viewing area of a news station, meteorologists must cut in, in an attempt to warm people in the path of the storm. Well on May 7th, Gary Lezak (NBC Action News) did so along with other stations and did wall to wall coverage for 30 minutes until the storm moved into a more rural area and weakened. On NBC, the office was on and people missed it. Reading comments regarding the coverage of the storm, people were pissed off that Gary would stay on for 30 minutes over 1 storm producing a small tornado near the edge of the viewing area. There were comments saying things like you dont need to be covering a storm that far away from Kansas City.

Well how in the hell is a storm one and a half hours away from Kansas City a long ways away!? When you have a storm, even if is only one in the viewing area threatening peoples lives, the news is obligated to interupt programming in an attempt to save lives. Poeple would rather bitch about missing their favorite show - WHICH MAY I ADD WAS REPLAYED! - Over understanding that other people's lives could be at risk. Luckily, the tornado touched down in a rural area and just uprooted some trees. But think if this storm would have been in Kansas City, then you would expect Gary and other stations to cut in. It amazes me how low-lifed and self centered people are!! Now matter how many way you do something, somebody will always be complaining. I hope the people that felt the may they did, feel different when a storm threatens them.

Have a great day,

Alex Pickman