Saturday, May 9, 2009

Sunday storm

It will be a below average temperature wise on Sunday with highs in the low to upper 60's. Take a look at the 700 mb relative humidity forecast for tomorrow:

Notice the dark green shades. This is higher relative humidity. If your area is green, you can generally expect it to be cloudy. The reason for the clouds is a small upper level disturbence moving through the area. Take a look at the 18z GFS 500 mb map below:

You can see the disturbence (look for the X or vort max) moving across northern Missouri Sunday through Sunday night. This may allow some sprinkles or showers to form. There is only a 20 or 30% chance of rain tomorrow, but it will be a nuicience if one finds your backyard.

Our next decent chance of rain and thunderstorms wont arrive until Tuesday night and Wednesday. Here is the 18z GFS 500 mb forecast for Tuesday night:

The rain totals shown in this forecast is due to a warm front lifting north, but the best chance of rain wont come till Wednesday night as a cold front approaches.

There is a chance of severe weather with this next system, but it is still a long ways out so we will have to see how the ingredients unfold over the next few days. After tomorrow, the rest of the week looks warm with highs back in the 70's!
Alex Pickman


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