Sunday, May 24, 2009

Rain chances?

Saturday was a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 80's. Actually Saturday was the warmest day in 2009 so far with 87 degrees at KCI. During the day yesterday, the heating and humidity caused numerous cumulous clouds to develop. Some of the clouds grew enough to become showers and thunderstorms. The rain was scattered and mainly located in northwest Missouri, but estimated precipitation had over an inch in some spots.

Today (Sunday) should be quite similar with numerous cumulous clouds developing with the heating of the day. With highs in the low to mid 80's a few showers and thunderstorms could develop. They will be scattered innature, but with fairlyhigh dewpoints, any storms could produce very heavy downpours. And as with yesterday as I mentioned, precip estimates had over an inch in spots.

Rain chances increase as we head into Monday due to a storm system approaching from the southeast. Take a look at the 18z GFS 500 mb forecast valid Monday:

You can see the low in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to become much more numerous and last all day Monday and into Tuesday. But why in the storm arriving from the southeast to northwest?

Well look at the spacing between the black lines in the center of the country. This would be the flow aloft which gives storms systems the direction and momentum. There is virtually no directional flow aloft so the storm is drifting slowly to the northwest.

There is potential for some heavy rain with this system Monday and Tuesday. I would say up to two inches in some spots right now. With more cloud cover Monday through Wednesday, highs should be in the 70's, But I think dry weather and low 80's return next week. There is no chance of severe weather through Tuesday.

I will not be able to update the blog until this weekend because I will be in Chicago. So here is a quick breakdown.

Sunday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance of rain 40%. Highs in the low to mid 80's.
Monday - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of rain 70%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.
Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of rain 70%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.
Wednesday - Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain 0%. Highs in the mid to upper 70's.

Rest of the week - partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Alex Pickman


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