Thursday, March 18, 2010

New possible weekend solution

The computer models continue to struggle to come to an agreement as to the track of this weekend storm. One thing most are agreeing on is that the low will track southeast out of the northwest and begin to close off as it approaches the area. What they are having the most trouble with is when the storm begins its northeastern turn. Take a look at the 06z GFS 500 mb map below:

One thing to note is that this storm hasnt even started forming yet. You cant even see it on the satelite images. As you can see above, the storm just starts forming tonight in the northwest, but the big question is where will it go from there? Take a look at the next map:

This run has the strong low closing off and tracking deep into Oklahoma, if this storm takes this track, then locations in northeastern Kansas and northern and central Missouri will se little if any snow at all due to warm air wrapping into the system. All the storm needs to do is track just a bit further to the north and the locations I just mentioned will likely get one of the biggest snowstorms they have ever seen. I can see scearios leaving just a dusting or scenarios leaving the area with major accumulations.

There a still several questions with this system as to the track, strength, and precipitation, but it is likely going to be a very wet storm. How much of it will be snow? I am trying to figure this out as weget closer to the weekend, and there may be a huge snow shield, but remember this storm hasnt even formed yet! A lot still can and will change, we are still about 30 hours away. So the question still remains...Snow or no snow?

Until then enjoy the warm weather today with highs in the 60's and calm winds with clear skies.

I will have a new entry soon.

Alex Pickman


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