Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Major Winter Storm!

Snow developed across northern Kansas and Missouri last night giving areas north of Kansas City between 1 and 3 inches of snow. This is in association to a very potent winter storm that will affect the entire region through Wednesday morning. The snow is still falling this morning and it could get heavy at times today. There is one problem though. The storm did take a more southerly track, which is good, but the WAA (Warm Air Advection) is prety strong, so it will be difficult to determine where the snow/mix/rain line sets up. There will likely be a break across northern Missouri for a couple hours between 10:00 AM and Noon. Here is the problem. Another batch of precipitation will push back in, but in what form will it be? The map below show where I think that line will set up:

As you can see, the pink shaded area is a Winter Storm Warning, the red to the north is a Blizzard Warning, and the blue to the southis a Winter Weather Advisory. The blue line I drew in is where I think the rain/snow line will set up. Areas to the north and west of it will be snow and areas to the south will be a mix when this next batch of precipitation moves through. I think that rain/snow line will push back to the south this afternoon and areas around St. Joseph should switch back over to snow. It will be a battle trying to stay snow, but the cold air will win out. A band of snow will form this evening and push through possibly dumping 1-2 inches and the models are indicating one last band forming later around midnight that may also bring 1-2 more inches in some locations.

Here is my total snowfall forecast by Wednesday morning:

There are Blizzard Warnings across Iowa to the Missouri border. A surface low will have explosive development and will be very strong later tonight. This will create very tight pressure gradients and winds will likely gust near 50 mph at times and I think the Blizzard Warning will push south to at least highway 36. The winds will allow the arctic air to rush in and there will be near whiteout conditions with all of the blowing snow. I wouldnt be surprised to get reports of snow drifts in feet to the north.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will likely be near or below zero and only warmng up in the teens. This will be the same for Thursday with lows to -10 in some locations Thursday morning. So it is going to get cold. Our next slight chance of precipitation will be Saturday.

I will have a new blog entry probably Friday as I will b busy the next couple of days.

Alex Pickman


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