Quick afternoon update...Tornado Watch

It is a warm and windy Thursday and the NWS has issed a Wind Advisory for much of westen Missouri and Kansas. Winds will continue to gust over 40 mph at times out of te southwest. This is caused from tight pressure gradients out ahead of a stalled frontal boundary through Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa associated with a couple very strong surface lows.

Warm and humid air is pumping into the area with highs near 80 degees. With this airmass in place, a very strong surface low and a frontal boundary, thunderstorms have fired northwest of Manhattan, KS and the SPC has issued Tornado Watch as a result. Take a look at the map below:

You can see the watch area from central Kansas into southereastern Nebraska and far northwestern Missouri. Southeastern Nebraska looks to be most likely spot to see any tonadoes this evening. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds with a couple tornadoes possible. The storms should develop to the southwest and northeast becoming linear and training over the same locations due to the nearly stalled front. So, flooding may become a problem. The line will slowly inch toward Kansas City throughout the night, but will the hold together before they reach thestate line? It will be close, but outflow boundaries may limit thunderstorm development for western Missouri on Friday. The storms should enter northwest Missouri late tonight and tomorrow morning. The SPC does have a large area under a slight risk for Friday as you can see in the map below:

As you can see the risk area is focused more over central and eastern Missouri. This is a complex and difficult forcast and there are a lot of factors to look over. I will have a new blog tomorrow.

Alex Pickman

Quick update...Nice Thursday!

It has been a few weeks since I have posted an entry. I have be very busy lately but things have calmed down now so I can ge back in to this. Take a look at the current surface map (1:00 AM):

Warm air is being drawn into the area as you can see in the map above. This will keep temperatures pretty warm tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper 50's. We will see temperatures jump into the upper 70's and low 80's across the area Thursday afternoon as southerly winds increase with gust 40-45 mph, so it will be very windy tomorrow afteroon. This will create fire conditions an red Flag Warnings may be posted near by soon.

A strong surface low is going to develop Thursday evening and the weather pattern is going to get very complex in the coming days. The strength, timing, and track the surface low will be a factor in if we see thunderstorms by Friday.

I will go into more detail on Thursday and Friday in the morning.

Alex Pickman

Frost Advisory

With the clear skies, low humidity, and calm winds, temperatures will be allowed to drop tonight. Looks like low to mid 30's throughout the area. The colder air looks to be across the Eastern half of the state with widespread frost likely. As a result the NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for the eastern half of the state. Take a look at the map below:

If you have sensitive plants outside, it would probably be a good idea to bring them inside or cover them up to preven damage. This is likely going to be last remnance of Winter.

After a cold start for your Friday, it will quickly warm up into the mid to upper 60's with 70 degree weather near and south of I-70. This is just the start with mid to upper 70's from Saturday into next week. Lows will be in the 50's and 60's so for any morel mushroom hunters, 2 weeks and I would start looking.

I am seeing a cople small chances for rain in the coming days, but nothing much to discuss unless they materialize. I will have a new entry tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Cold calm night

A cold has pushed through the region and has drawn in much cooler air. Temperatures have spilled into the mid to upper 30 with low 40's to the south. With northwest winds and dewpoints continuing to fall, lows for your thursday morning be near or below the freezing mark in some locations, especially from Kansas City, MO/KS northward. Frost will be possible in these locations. I dont think it will be really cold enough to damage much vegitaion, but it is probably a good idea to cover up sensitive plants, especially if you live in northwest Missouri. After a busy past 6 days with with severe weather all around including earlier Wednesday where up to golfball sized hail was reported with a "mini" supercell thunderstorm around the Kansas City area, it should finally be a calm, quiet night.

After a cold start to the day, temperatures will gradually warm up into the mid to upper 50's in northern Missouri to near 60 around the Kansas City area and 60's further south of there. It will be sunny with a breezy northwest wind making it feel a few degrees colder.

A warming trend will begin for your Friday with mid to upper 60's across northern Missouri and 70 spilling in to the south. Thing will really start to warm back up by Sunday and with the warmer nights expected this weekend into next week, things should really start greening up.

Alex Pickman

Cool Wednesday

Our storm system contiues to slowly push off to the east and the cold front is still sagging through the state. Southeast Missouri will be warm with temperatures in the 70's out ahead of the warm front with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locations behind the front will be much cooler compared to the past few days. Highs across northern Missouri this afternoon will be in the 50 to 55 degree range. Locations around Kansas City should near the 60 degree mark.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from west to east today. Some of the storms could have some hail. Overall it will be a flipflop from yesterday with cool damp weather. A warming trend will begin Friday with temperatures well into the 70's spilling in this weekend and into next week.

Alex Pickman

Storms still rumbling 1:00 AM

The line of thunderstorms is still slowly pressing to the south and east. The storms are still in a training motion so flooding is a continuing concearn. Take a look at the radar image below:

There have not been any tornado reports and this severe weather event has not been as "eventfull" as it could have been. The surface low in Kansas did not develop quick enough for prime severe weather conditions. Instead of any supercells forming, the thunderstorms quickly lined up and it became a wind/hail event.

Some of these thunderstorms are still reaching severe limits and the SPC has the area under a slight risk for severe weather and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued for locations that may be affected by this line of storms. Take a look at the watch area below:

I dont a think a new Watch will be issued east of this one due to the small risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front that is pushing the storms along has pushed into Missouri and is bringing in the cooler air. Take a look at the surface map below where I have drawn in the fronts:

Lows behind the cold front will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's and the temperatures will not rise much for your Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50's and a chance of some showers. Temperatures across northern missouri will likely dip just below freezing Wednesday night. A warming trend will begin this weekend with temperatures well into the 70's returning to the area.

I will have a new entry tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Severe thunderstorms

Severe thunderstorms have rapidly developed late this afternoon in a line from Ottawa, Kansas, northeastward into Iowa. This line has stalled and will likely take a whileto get moving. Here is the watch map below:

The main threats right now is large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Flooding will also be a concearn with this as these are stalled and training over the same locations. I wont be able to post a new entry until about 1 AM. So until then expect showers and strong to severe thundrstorms around the area through the evening. Expect a new blog later tonight.

Alex Pickman 

Early morning update

A Tornado Watch that was issued for northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas has been long allowed to expire as the warm front has lifted well to the north, taking the thunderstorms with it. Take a look at the current surface map where I have drawn in the warm front:



Once again as you can see the front is well north of the area. This has eliminated any further thunderstorm development around the area. Any precipitation will remain along and north of the warm front. We will be experiencing very warm and muggy conditions for the rest of tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60's. As you can see on the map above, some locations across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri still are in the low 70's at 2:00 AM!

This very warm and humid air will continue through the day tomorrow with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's and will be the key ingredients to a possible severe weather outbreak. A cold front will approach the area tomorrow afternoon and evening and thunderstorms, possibly severe are likely. The SPC has much of the area under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow as you can see below:

The main threats are large hail and damaging winds, but tornadoes will be possible. I will have a new entry with more details tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Morning thunderstorms

The cold front as expected has been lifting back to the north as a warm front and has sparked off some more showers and thunderstorms from areas around I-70 northward. These storms will continue lifting northeastward. They may produce some gusty winds and large hail as they move through. The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for western Missouri and eastern Kansas as a result of these thunderstorms.

The SPC also has northern Missouri under a slight risk for severe weather, but the warm front is going to surge north into Iowa taking any thunderstorms with it, so this afternoon will become dry, sunny, warm, humid, and windy. Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60's with highs this afternoon in the upper 70's to low 80's. There was some concearn that the warm front wouldnt push as far north as predicted and leave us with a chance of thunderstorms through the afternoon, but I am confident it will push well into Iowa and Nebraska and eliminate any thunderstorm chance for the afternoon.

Our next chance for severe weather after this morning will be Tuesday afternoon ahead of our next cold front. Until then, expect the sun to come out this afternoon and it will become warm and humid. I will have a new entry around 1 Am tonight or Tuesday morning.

Alex Pickman

We aren't out of the woods yet

Thunderstorms rapidly developed along a weak cold front late Easter Sunday afternoon at around 5:00 PM. A Tornado Watch was issued and Severe Thunderstorm Warning started to light up the map as well.

Now the cold front has slid to the south and east an so did the thunderstorms. Take a look at the current surface map below where I have drawn in the cold front:



A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect from the Springfield area, northeast to St. Louis. The front will lift back north as a warm front late tonight and tomorrow, and cold bring some more showers and thunderstorms for Monday morning and there is a slight risk for severe weather as this occurs. The warm front should then lift back into Nebraska and Iowa and take the chance for rain/thunderstorms and severe weather up there. This will allow for more warm, moist air to spill back into the area. Highs will be in the upper 70's to low 80's across the area Monday with warm, humid, and windy conditions surging back into the area.

Here is the severe weather risk map for Monday:



The same conditions will remain for your Tuesday with the front to the north and highs making a run at 80 in many locations. However, our system will be approaching Tuesday afternoon in the form of a cold front. With the warm, humid conditions out ahead of the front, thunderstorms will likey result tuesday afternoon and severe weather is once again possible. Here is the severe weather risk map for Tuesday:



TONIGHT & MONDAY MORNING - So tonight expect cool conditions and maybe even some fog forming with lows in the mid to upper 40's across northern Missouri with low 50's to the south. Areas across southern Missouri can expect showers and thunderstorms to continue along the cold front. The front should begin to push back north as a warm front later tonight. By Monday morning, the warm front may trigger some more showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri, butby the afternoon, the front should have lifted back into Nebraska and Iowa.

MONDAY - With the front well north of us, it will allow warm, humid, and windy conditions to surge back into the area. It will become partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's around the area. Winds will likely gust in upwards of 30 mph. Monday night will be warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50's to low 60's.

TUESDAY - Tuesday will be another warm, humid, and windy day with highs nearing the 80 degree mark in many locations. Our next storm system will be approaching the area in the form of a cold front for your Tuesday afternoon and with these conditions out ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe.

I will go into more details tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman

Tornado Watch issued

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch across part of the area extending into Iowa and Illinois. Here is the map showing the coverage of the Watch below:



Thunderstorms are rapdly firing in the watch area and are turning severe. Here is the Text for the Severe thunderstorm moving into North Central Missouri.

"...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERNCALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 600PM CDT..."

"AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...ANDDAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILESSOUTH OF COWGILL...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 50MPH."

I will keep you updated as conditions develop. The main threats will be large hail and dmaging winds, with an isolated tornado or two possible.

Alex Pickman

Severe weather season is here

It has been a little been since my last blog, but lets get back into it. The area experienced it first severe thunderstorm event of the season April 1st with numerous damaging wind reports. Take a look at the map below the NWS put together showing the report locations. Some of these places had roofs torn off.



I was not expecting this particular event to occur with the severity it did. I thought a band of moderate to heavy rain was going to push through out ahead of the cold front with a couple embedded, possibly strong to marginally severe thunderstorms to push through. Instead a line of thunderstorms formed and numerous damaging straight line winds/microbursts were reported. So what is going to happen next?

A storm system will be approaching the area for your Easter Sunday, but the day should remain dry. During the late afternoon and evening hours a warm front is going to lift through the area and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to reach severe limits. Right now, it looks like the main threat will be hail and mayb some damaging winds for late afternoon Sunday into Monday morning. The warm frontwill continue to lift north into Iowa and allow warm, moist air to spill into the area. Monday will become warm, muggy, and windy. The SPC has our area in a slight risk Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, and a slight risk across Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and into Illinios as the warm front moves north into that area. Our next chance of thunderstorms will come Tuesday afternoon as the cold front rolls through which could bring another round for some severe weather.

I will have a new blog tomorrow morning on this setup.

Alex Pickman