Monday, April 5, 2010

We aren't out of the woods yet

Thunderstorms rapidly developed along a weak cold front late Easter Sunday afternoon at around 5:00 PM. A Tornado Watch was issued and Severe Thunderstorm Warning started to light up the map as well.

Now the cold front has slid to the south and east an so did the thunderstorms. Take a look at the current surface map below where I have drawn in the cold front:

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect from the Springfield area, northeast to St. Louis. The front will lift back north as a warm front late tonight and tomorrow, and cold bring some more showers and thunderstorms for Monday morning and there is a slight risk for severe weather as this occurs. The warm front should then lift back into Nebraska and Iowa and take the chance for rain/thunderstorms and severe weather up there. This will allow for more warm, moist air to spill back into the area. Highs will be in the upper 70's to low 80's across the area Monday with warm, humid, and windy conditions surging back into the area.

Here is the severe weather risk map for Monday:

The same conditions will remain for your Tuesday with the front to the north and highs making a run at 80 in many locations. However, our system will be approaching Tuesday afternoon in the form of a cold front. With the warm, humid conditions out ahead of the front, thunderstorms will likey result tuesday afternoon and severe weather is once again possible. Here is the severe weather risk map for Tuesday:

TONIGHT & MONDAY MORNING - So tonight expect cool conditions and maybe even some fog forming with lows in the mid to upper 40's across northern Missouri with low 50's to the south. Areas across southern Missouri can expect showers and thunderstorms to continue along the cold front. The front should begin to push back north as a warm front later tonight. By Monday morning, the warm front may trigger some more showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri, butby the afternoon, the front should have lifted back into Nebraska and Iowa.

MONDAY - With the front well north of us, it will allow warm, humid, and windy conditions to surge back into the area. It will become partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's around the area. Winds will likely gust in upwards of 30 mph. Monday night will be warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50's to low 60's.

TUESDAY - Tuesday will be another warm, humid, and windy day with highs nearing the 80 degree mark in many locations. Our next storm system will be approaching the area in the form of a cold front for your Tuesday afternoon and with these conditions out ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe.

I will go into more details tomorrow morning.

Alex Pickman


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