Monday, November 16, 2009

Strong storm and Old man Winter!..Updated!

Moderate to heavy snow is falling in northwest Missouri and northeastern Kansas this morning and it is accumulating rapidly. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued in northern Kansas for several counties near the border with several inches of snow expected and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended further south. This is a very tough forecast as warmer air is wrapping into the storm, so it may switch back and forth from snow to rain all day and overnight.

Here is a picture of the snow at Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, MO:


I have been tracking a storm system for several days now, that is and will continue to affect our weather for the next few days. Take a look at the 500 mb map below:

This is a strong and very complex storm system that is just meandering across Kansas as there is no steering pattern. This storm is cut off from the main jet stream and is what is called a cut off low. It is creating its own cold air and this cold air is wrapping in on the north and west side of the system. This air will be cold enought to support snow on Monday in northern and eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. As a result the NWS service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas from northwestern Missouri to point southwest into Kansas.

Temperatures will be in the mid 30's throughout the day on Monday and the snow could be qite havy in the morning with accumulations. Locations from about Atchison and St. Joseph to the Iowa border may pick up on the order 1-5 inches of snow wih totals increasing the further north and west you go. The NWS is about to upgrade a few counties in northern Kansas to a Winter Storm Warning as there could be some pretty high totals on the order of 5+ inches. I do not think it will snow all day, but it may switch back and forth through the evening. Temperatures will remain fairly consistant through Monday night in the mid 30's.

This will be the first snowflakes of the season and the start of what looks to be a very active couple of weeks.

I will have an update later.

Alex Pickman


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