Cold front...next rain chance

We were out ahead of the cold front today and highs topped out in the low to mid 80's around the area and there were 90's out in western Kansas. The warm weather was caused by gusty southwesterly winds out ahead of a strong cold front.

The front pushed through the area earlier in the evening and as a result the winds switched to the northwest and the dewpoints are dropping. The front swept through dry but will be answered with some cooler air spilling into the region. Take a look at the current surface map below:



Lows tonight should be in the low to mid 40's with clear skies. It will be a cool crisp Fall morning on Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 60's with gusty northwest winds. High pressure will control the region Monday night and we will experience a classic setup for some radiational cooling. Skies will be clear and the winds will be calm. This will allow all of the heat from the earths surface to escape into the atmosphere and as a result, temperatures will cool into the upper 30's north of highway 36 to the low to mid 40's to the south.

Take a look at the GFS forcast for Thursday:



This forecast is showing a strong upper level low moving into the Plains. I think this has the potential to produce some severe weather, but a lot of things have together. Right now, the main ingredient I am worrying about is moisture. It is hard to get a decent amout of moisture this time of year, but it is possible. Right now I would say showers and thunderstorms are likely, but will we see any severe weather? I will try to get that answered in the coming days.

Alex Pickman