Thunderstorms today?

Our area is in a slight risk for severe weather today with a moderate risk over Nebraska. Take a look at the map below:

Here is the breakdown of the risk area:

Here is what the NWS is saying abou the thunderstorm potential this afternoon and overnight:

WITH MORE STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EXTREME NERN CO/WRN NEB AS LARGE SCALE LIFTING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS SHOULD BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. BY EARLY EVENING...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM/EMBEDDED BOWS ACROSS ERN NEB/FAR NRN KS...AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FAST-MOVING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO IA/NRN MO.

The best chance of thunderstorms in Missouri will be across the northern section of the state. The main threat then will be damaging winds and maybe some hail. Any rain will likely fall overnight in our area, so expect sunny, hot and humid conditions with highs in the lower 90's. Then a chance of some rain and thunderstorms tonight...possibly severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Thursday will also be a hot and humid one with low to mid 90's for highs. Another cold front will arrive sometime Friday with another chance of rain and storms.

I will update the blog if anything starts to fire or move near us.

Alex Pickman