Monday, June 15, 2009

Morning thunderstorms...More rain?

A MCS developed overnight and pushed through the area, now we are dealing with the back side pushing through and there are some gusty thunderstorms on the edge near Kansas City. When all is said and done this morning, rain totals will likely be over an inch in most locations and in some spots over two inches.
After the rain stops, it wont be long before the clearing line gets to you. Here is the current satelite image:

Once the clearing line gets to you, the sun will come out and it will warm up quick and thanks to the rain, it will get humid. Highs should top out on either side of 80 degrees today. It will be a long break before our next rain chance comes in late tonight.

Notice the clear area across Kansas. There is a frontal boundary across Kansas and with high dewpoints and an upper level low moving across this area, the setup is there for showers and thunderstorms to form and they could be big. As a result, the SPC has issued a moderate risk across central Kansas.

Here is the break down of the risk area.

The tornado threat will be greatest over the moderate risk area as you can see on the map above.

Also the hail threat will be the highest over the moderate risk as any supercells that form will contain very large hail. Look at the map above.

There will be an increased wind threat overnight and the storms that form over Kansas this afternoon and evening willl likely develop into an MCS and spread into Missouri. There is a strong chance the storms will congeal into a line of storms and possibly a damaging bow echo. The bad news about this is that the storms will move into Missouri between midnight and 4 AM. So keep your weather radio on tonight in case of any Warnings.
I will have an update later today.
Alex Pickman


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