Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Stormy Tuesday?...Updated!

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern Missouri and Illinois. Here is map of the watch are below:

As you can see on the map above, thunderstorms are firing and the are in the places I thought they would. The storms firing along the front are begining to take on training characteristics. Remember, dont drive on any flooded road ways and keep listening for any severe weather alerts. The storms are going to become much more numerous today.

Previous entry below:


Showers and thunderstorms did continue last night as I expected, but they weakened significantly and this morning, there was nothin on radar, which is good If we are going to get thunderstorm development today. Take a look at the current surface map below. I have drawn in the very weak and almost stationary frontal boundary.

Temperatures along and south of the frontal boundary will be we into the 80's with 60's and 70's to the north. Also with dewpoints in the 60's to near 70 degrees in spots (look at the green numbers on the map above) Showers and thunderstorms are very likely. Where will they form? Well as you see on the map above I have them forming along the front. With winds aloft pretty weak around 10 to 15 mph, the chance of severe weather is slim, but the possibility of flooding increases as the storms will be moving very slow and likely training over the same locations.

The NWS has plaed nearly the entire area under a Flash Flood Watch. I see potential for raintotals exceeding 3 inches in spots who see the training storms. Now back to the severe weather potential. Take a look at the risk area below:

There is only a slight risk, but any one storm may become marginally severe. If any storms reach severe limits, the likley scenario will be maybe quarter sized hail 60 mph winds. The winds aloft are much to weak for tornado development. If you ar wanting to see tornadoes, go down to central Texas where there is a more favorable enviornment today.

I will have an update when storms start developing and if anything turn severe.

Alex Pickman


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