Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Warm front and T-storm chances

Lets take a look at the current surface map below:

Temperatures tonight re currently in the 50's. I do not expect temperatures to cool much further as clouds are spreading in from the southeast. Lows tonight should drop into the 40's and 50's around the area.

The clouds that are spreading in are creating a problem in forecasting the high temperatures for Wednesday. If it were sunny tomorrow, high would likely reach the 70's with the passage of a warm front that was once a cold front Sunday afternoon. Instead, I think we will be in the 60's primarily with a couple low 70 degree readings.

The warm front will begin to push through later in the day, drawing in gulf moisture. With moisture in place, the front will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a very slim chance for severe weather, with hail strong winds the primary threats. The bigger threat will be the possible flooding as the rain may be very heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon and overnight.

Rain and thunderstorms are likely Thursday morning, but I think we will see a break in the afternoon with highs in the 70's before a strong cold front pushes through. The front should push through during the evening on Thursday and I think this will be our best chance for severe weather with hail and straight line winds the main threats. Once the front passes through, the rain will end, but the rain and thunderstorms will be in the area through Friday morning. This could be another big rain producer.

There is potential for decent rains over the next three days. Rain totals Wednesday throguh Friday will likely range from 0.50" to 3.00". Right now it looks like the heaviest rain will fall over central Missouri.

The weather over the next three days is all associated with the same storm system. Here is a quick recap. The cold front through on Sunday will lift back to the north as the next storm system drags it up as a strong warm front. This warm front will trigger showers and thunderstorms, possibly heavy late Wednesday afternoon and overnight hours. We will see a break Thursday afternoon with highs in the 70's before a strong cold front pushes through, triggering more thunderstorms, and our best chance for severe weather. The chance is pretty slim, but the main threats will be hail and high winds. The rain will continue into Friday morning and it will be a cold rain with lows Friday morning likely in the upper 30's.
We may or may not get a break from the rain on Saturday. Some models have it wet, and some have it dry. It is really too far out to tell. I think Sunday will be dry, but it looks like our next storm will come Sunday night and Monday with another chance of rain ad thunderstorms.
I will have a new blog tomorrow afternoon.
Alex Pickman


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