Monday, April 13, 2009

Evening update!

This is a strong, slow moving storm system bringing our area a steady plain old rain with NO thunderstorms at all. Take a look at the current radar image below:

The rain, as shown by the arrow, is spinning clockwise around the storm. Add this with the slow movement, and rain totals around an inch plus will be common - especially if you get set under some moderate rain bands. I would say everyone will get 0.50" to 1.25" when all is said and done. The totals will be less near the Iowa border.

With the previous rainfalls, the ground is very saturated, and with this rain added on that, I am expecting some flooding problems. The NWS will likely issue a some kind of a flood statement later tonight.

The rain will continue into Monday morning. Take a look at the 850 mb temperatures below:

This is about 5000 feet above the surface. Temperatures at this level will be between 0 and -2 degrees celcius. As mentioned in the previous 2 blogs, some sleet may mix in with the rain in spots. The chance is small but the potential for some sleet is there.
How does it sleets when temperatures will be in the low to mid 40's at the surface? Well as the rain falls, it enters the cold air aloft (as you can see on the map above) and freezes into ice pellets. It then re-enters the warm air at the surface, but doesnt have time to melt and bounces on the ground as sleet.
The rain should end around noon Monday, but a few lingering showers are likely.
We will get a break until around Friday when the next storm is due. If you are hoping for a warm and sunny day, look for Thursday. Highs Thursday may make it into the low 70's.
I will have another blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman


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