Saturday, April 11, 2009

Wet Easter?

Sorry about not getting in any posts, I was having trouble with my account but the problem is resolved now. So I missed talking about 1 wet storm Thrusday night and Friday morning, but just in time for a wet Easter storm.

Another strong storm will enter the area and we will begin to feel the effects sometime tomorrow morning as rain begins to move in. This is right on the heels of the Thursday night/Friday morning storm giving us only one full dry day before we get another dumping of rain tomorrow.
Now when will the rain begin? The data is trending toward an earlier start to the rain..I would say between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM, some showers will move in. The further northeast you live, the longer the rain will hold off. These will be light and the heavier rain wont move in till the late afternoon and overnight hours. The rain should continue into Monday morning.

Highs Sunday will likely make it into the low 50's before the winds pick up, rain arrives, and temperatures fall back into the 40's. Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 30's and low 40's with a steady rain, and likely only climb into the low to mid 40's Monday afternoon. With surface temperatures in the 40's, you would think this would be an all rain event, but there will be some cold air aloft Monday.
Here is the surface temperature map for Monday:

I think a few sleet pellets are possible mixed in with the rain. How can there be sleet pellets with surface temperatures in the 40's? Well when the rain falls and there is a cold layer of air aloft, it enters the cold air aloft and freezes into small ice pellets. It then re-enters the warm air near the surface, but doesnt have time to melt and bounces on the ground as sleet.

So dont be surprised Monday if you see a few peices of ice bouncing on the ground. The chance for sleet is pretty slim, but the potential is there for some to reach the ground.
The rain should end in the late morning hours on Monday. So how much will fall? Here is what the GFS is showing for accumulated precipitation through Monday:

I would say when the rain is done that most locations will likely see between 0.50" and 1.25". There will likely be some locally higher accumulations, but we will have to see where the heaviest rain sets up. Now with the ground already saturated, and streams high, flooding is likely as the soil and streams cant take it.

If you are wondering about severe weather, this will not be the event for area once again as the storm is tracking too far south. Here is the severe risk area for Sunday:

There is already a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with thunderstorms lining up in eastern Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible in the south tomorrow. Southern Louisiana needs to watch out for hail and tornadoes especially.
So expect ome showers to work in between 9 and 11 Sunday morning from the south and west. The steady rain wont arrive until later in the afternoon through Monday morning. Some sleet may mix in Monday morning if the conditions are right. No snow is possible with this storm. There wont be any severe weather in our area, but the will likely be some significant severe weather in the southern states with large hail, dmaging winds, and some torndoes the main threats. Flooding is a strong possibility with an already saturated ground, and 0.50 to 1.25" on top of that.
The good news is that we should get a 2, possibly 3 day break from the rain before anothe storm arrives around Friday.
I will have a new blog Sunday morning.
Alex Pickman


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