Thursday, April 16, 2009

Rainy weekend?...Severe Wx in south...Warm up!!

Sorry, I havnt posted a blog in a few days, but I have to make time to type this one as we have a very slow moving storm system approaching with rain likely this weekend. but before we get to that lets talk about what happened today, and what tomorrow holds.

We saw variably cloudy skies today with clouds ranging from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. With the cloud cover, highs today remained in the 60's. If there was to be sunshine, then highs would of likely been in the 70's.

Friday will be similar with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's. the clouds and warm weather are associated with a storm system which is currently located around Utah and slowly pressing eastward. The system is causing some severe weather in Western Texas. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

There are several Tornado Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. So what does this mean for our region?

The slow progression of the system will fortunately hold the rain off until early Saturday morning. This means a dry Friday. By 6:00 AM Saturday morning, I think there will be a band of showers and thunderstorms near Kansas City, pressing northeasterward. The rain could be heavy at times, but I dont expect any severe thunderstorms. The further northeast you are, the later the rain will arrive. Since I am covering a large area, I would say the rain will begin between 6 and 12 AM depending on your location.

For a better understanding here is a list of some cities and the time I think the rain may arrive on Saturday.

Kansas City - 6:30 AM
St. Joseph - 7:45 AM
Cameron - 8:00 AM
Chillicothe - 10:00 AM
Marceline - 11:00 AM

The good news is that the rain should'nt last a long time, only a couple hours at the most. There is even a chance that the sun may come out in western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the afternoon, and if that happens, temperatures will warm to near 70 degrees in spots. If there is enough moisture as well, the there could be some thunderstorm redevelopment, but once again I dont expect anything severe. Locations toward the east will see showers and clouds during the afternoon, and thus preventing the redevelopment of thunderstorms.

Now I bet you are wondering how much rain will fall? Well it is really hard to pon down, but I would say between 0.25" to maybe 1".

Once we get this storm passed us, there will be another storm near us on Sunday. Take look at the 500mb map below:
This storm could bring some showers, but the main thing is it will draw in some cooler air for Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50's on Sunday and highs in the upper 40's to low 50's likely on Monday. Notice the ridge building in the west, well that is our next big warm up. Look at the map for next Saturday below:

This is looking to be the height of the warm up. Temperatures next Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday should all be in the 70's and possibly 80's at times.
I will have a new blog tomorrow.
Alex Pickman


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