Sunday, January 25, 2009

Sunday night update...snow potential

There has been a lot of talk on this next system and snow fall. I have heard people saying anywhere from a dusting to over 5 inches when all is said and done. Who will be right? There are still a lot of questions on when the snow will start? How long it will last? And how much will fall? I am going to try to break in on this right now.

First lets start off with what is going to happen overnight tonight. Skies will remain on the cloudy side and it will be cold with lows likely in single digits along and especially north of I-70 where there is a 1-3 inch snow pack from last night's snowfall. There could still be a couple lingering snow showers of flurries tonight, but there will be no further accumulation. Earlier this evening, there was an erea of flurries and light snow around St. Joseph that produced maybe a dusting to a quarter inch in some spots, but that has since fallen apart.

When you wake up Monday morning, temperatures will likely be in the single digits and rise into the teens to near 20 degrees around the area. So Monday will be very similar to today temperature wise, but what about the precipitation?
Here is a look at the 18z NAM and GFS precipitation forecast throug Tuesday:

This gives our area very little snow accumualtion with an inch or less. Areas southeast of Kansas City would get 1-3 inches out of this outcome. Here is the GFS:
On the contrary, this model gives our area 3-5 inches of snow with higher totals the further south you go. I am expecting something in between.

There are already Winter Storm Watches and even an Ice Storm Warning to the south in expectation for the inclimate weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Take a look at the severe weather map below:

You can see the Winter Storm Warning in southern Missouri and the small areaof purple on the Missouri/Arkansas border. That purple area is an Ice Storm Warning, where possibly over an inch of ice could accumulate in spots. That will make driving almost impossible and there will be tree damage and power outages, so people down south should take it easy. Areas in the Winter Sotm Watch will likely see periods of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. There will likley be moderate sleet and snow accumulations of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possibly reaching 6 inches in spots. Now this will not begin tonight, and I think the morning rush hour will be just fine for the people down south, but the problems will come in the early afternoon hours on Monday as the precipitation begins moving in.
Now what about us to the north? We will see some precipitation, but the forecast gets kind of tricky up here. Do you see the Winter Weather Advisory over in Nebraska on the map above? I am expecting that to possibly be extended southeast through central Missouri tomorrow. An area of snow will work its way northward sometime mid afternoon and make it way into Kansas City around 4:00 PM or so and eventually to the Iowa border. The snow may be moderate at times. The timing of the snow will be tricky as dry air is curently in place. Once the air saturates, the snow will begin to fall. If you live anywhere from I-70 northward, I would expect the snow to begin sometime mid to late afternoon.
Another area of snow will form Monday night in northern Missouri northward into Iowa and more accumulation is possible. The precipitation should push out of here by Tuesday afternoon.
The forecast snowfall is hard to put into words so here is my snowfall forecast through Tuesday:
The area will generally see 1-3 inches of snow. The snow will be heavier in southern Missouri where I think 2-5 inches in possible. I may remove the area of 2-4 inches to the north and include it in the general 1-3 inches. We will see how it looks tomorrow.

So overall, expect a cold cloudy day Monday with precipitation increasing during the afternoon and overnight hours. The precipitation will continue Tuesday morning and should be done by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate snow accumulations and significant ice accumulations in the warned area.

I will have an update tomorrow including a new snowfall forecast.
Alex Pickman


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home