Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Late afternoon update

Thunderstorms have fired across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. As I mentioned in the last entry, I was expecting to thunderstorms to fire along the cold front in a scattered line from south central Kansas southwest through west central Oklahoma, and this is what happened. There is another cluster in north central Kansas and a cluster that just developed recently in west central Missouri. The NWS has issued a large Tornado Watch from nortern Texas northeast to just south and west of Kansas City. Take a look at the map below:

As you can see in the map above there is another small Tornado Watch just to right of the Kansas watch. This small watch box includes the Kansas City metro area. Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop in eastern Kansas out ahead of the main line with hail the main threat in any severe thunderstorms. There is a small chance an isolated tonado may spin up, but it really isnt worth mentioning, just that there is a small risk for a tornado. The best chance for a tornado will liekly be in western Oklahoma and south central Kasnas.

The biggest threat from this system is looking like the flooding potential. Moisture is streaming in from the southwest and with heavy thunderstorms along a slow moving cold front, flooding rains are likely in spots, especially in far eastern Kansas and through Missouri where nearly the entire state is under a Flood Watch.  

The cold front will slowly slide into Missouri tonight with heavy thunderstorms in a line along it. The storms, some strong or severe will ride along the front, moving northeast and training over the same areas. Some spots will see excessive rainfall from this. This system has the potential to produce much more that what it is now, but there are limiting factors and I mentioned one in the last blog.

Large hail looks to be the main threat from thunderstorms through the overnight hours with excessive rainfall the main threat with a "training" nature of the storms. I will have an update around 1 AM.

Alex Pickman 


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