Monumental Severe Outbreak Likely!

A significant severe weather outbreak, which has been very well advertised for the past week is now bearing down on the southern Plains. The SPC has issued a Moderate risk for parts of central Kansas, into central Oklahoma, and southwestern Missouri. Here is the risk area below:

A warm front is currently pushing northward and is setting off numerous showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri that will contimue to expand in coverage and intensity overnight and Monday morning. As the thunderstorms push northward Monday overnight and Monday morning, some large hail and heavy rain may result, especially in the stronger cells. These storm will likely extend from Nebraska and eastern Kansas, into Missouri and Arkansas. This is not the main show however. 

Computer models continue to show all the sufficient parameters for an intense day of severe thunderstorms. Once the warm front lifts through the area, dewpoints of 60+ degrees will establish out ahead of the dryline from north Texas into Kansas. There was concearn earlier this past week that the cap would be too strong and limit development to overnight or none at all, but that should not be the case with this storm system.The cap should erode through the mid and late afternoon Monday and thunderstorms should begin to fire across part of central Kansas by the mid afternoon hours. With the dryline, CAPE values between 2000-3500 J/KG, outrageous wind shear of 60-90 KT, and all the other parameters in place, Extremely dangerous, fast moving supercells will likely result across parst of Kansas and Oklahoma. These storms will be capaable of producing incredible hail and dangerous large, long lived tornadoes. As the storms move eastward through the evening and overnight hours, the nature of them will likely become more linear and clustered and maybe (MCS) like with large hail, damaging straight line winds, and still a tornadic threat. 

This is looking to be a historic day! I will have a new entry tomorrow morning and we should have the Plains first High Risk of the season!

Alex Pickman