Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Heavy rains expected

A slow moving storm system is begining to affect the area late this morning. The NWS (National Weather Service) has issued a Flood Watch for eastern Kansas and western and central Missouri with a Flash Flood Watch to the south of that. Take a look at the warning map below:
This is in expectaion of heavy rains this afternoon and especially overnight. Our first round of weather is a slow moving band of steady rain currently moving out of Kansas and into western Missouri. The areas where it is currently raining will likely remain in the upper 50's for highs today continuing the now 2 week stretch of cool temperatures. This area of rain will slowly press northeast and stick with us through the afternoon. This first round of precipitation is associated with a warm front in Oklahoma. Take a look at the surface map below where I have drawn in the fronts:

The surface low will push east into Oklahoma and conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with another major outbreak likely across the same locations as the May 10th outbreak last Monday. The SPC has issued a High Risk for central Oklahoma. Take a look at the Risk map below:

Thunderstorms will form along the dryline and rapidliy become supercellular. There will likely be numerous tornadoes and a few of them may be quite strong. Remember, last Monday, there were 2 EF-4 tornadoes that tracked through the southern Oklahoma City area affecting the towns of Moore and Norman, OK. This could be a scenario again today, so people need to pay close attention to any warnings issued. Along with the tornadic threat, the stronger cells will likely contain hail up to baseball+ and damaging winds. The severe threat will shift into eastern Oklahoma this evening and possibly evolve into a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and track into Missouri. This will be our second round of rain and will likely be heavy.

There really isnt a severe thunderstorm threat in Missouri today or tonight, but 1-2 inches of rain will fall and there could be localized areas of 4+ inches leading to flooding.
I will have a new entry late tonight.

Alex Pickman


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