Friday, July 31, 2009

3rd coolest July..Next cold front!

It has been a long time since I have blogged, but I have been quite busy so lets get started. As you can probably tell, this Summer has been on the cool side. The NWS has noted this as the third coolest July on record and records date back to 1888! Even this morning, Kansas City nearly broke another record as lows dipped back into the 50's. The low this morning KCI was 55 degrees, the record was 54. Will this cool pattern continue into August?

Well tomorrow, the first day of August certainly wont be hot as a cold front is approaching the area tonight. It developed in the upper Plains and is now in southeast Nebraska, extending south into Kansas and north into Iowa. Take a look at the surface map below where I drew in the front's location:

There is band of rain and thunderstorms out ahead of this front. There will not be any severe weather, except maybe in western Kansas. as the front pushes through. The radar is showing a wekening trend with the rain in central Iowa, so areas in southeast Iowa and northern and eastern Missouri may see no rain at all, but the entire are has about a 50 to 80% chance of rain, so dont rule anything out.

The front will push though between 3:00 AM and 10:00 AM Saturday morning, leaving us with a nice day with highs in the 70's and sunny skies. 70 degree weather doesnt really sound like what temperatures should be during the peak of Summer does it? So will it heat up..?

High pressure is forecast to build in coverage and strengh next week and inch its way toward us as it does so. Will it reach us or not? Take a look at the 500 mb forecast Tuesday:

This forecast is showing us to be on the edge once again and last time this happened, it was just a bit closer but still to the west and southwest of us and resulted in complexes of rain and thunderstorms with a series day after day of damaging wind events across the area. Will this happen again with us being in the northwest flow? I think so, but with the high just a bit further west in this forecast compared to last time, the heavy rain may be in eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. This High or "Anticyclone" has the potential to be just as strong or stronger than any other this Summer, so areas in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma will be scorching again. Last time the high moved into this area, Witchita, KS hit 107 degrees and Alva, OK hit 117 degrees! The extreme heat around Alva actually caused the air to rise and create what is called a Thermal Low and showers and thunderstorms resulted from it.

Will next week be just as exciting? The potential is there so lets see what Mother Nature has to tell us during this first week of August.

Alex Pickman


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