Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Tueday forecast

Well a morning MCS (mesoscale Convective System) moved through between 6:00 AM and 12:00 PM. The eastern edge of the complex did have some strong, heavy rain producing thunderstorms, but nothing severe. The MCS is weaking now and is mainly just an area of rain in eastern Missouri, entering Illinois. The clouds and rain are keeping the temperatures down this morning...in the low to mid 70's. Take a look at the current surface map:

Notice the temperature contrast. Alva, Oklahoma is 102 degrees and Columbia, Missouri is 70 degrees. The air across Missouri is rain cooled and cloudy. The complex of storms that moved through this morning surpressed the warm front's northward progression a bit, but the system moved by early enough and fast enough that I think upper 80's to low 90's will be possible today as the clearing line is pressing eastward. Locations in northern Missouri may be in the mid 80's today as clouds will stick around longer.

Take a look at the current visible satelite image:

With the sun coming out soon, and the recent morning rain which will begin to evaporate, today and tomorrow will likely be very humid, so even with temperatures in the upper 80's and low 90's, heat indicies will likely range from 95 to 100 degrees.

Will there anymore storms today? There is a developing cold front that will push through later this evening. There may be some thunderstorm development along the front that will likely push through the area this evening. The SPC has our are in a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds the primary threat.

The rest of the week looks great with highs in the low to mid 80's and a little less humid.

I will have an update later this afternoon.

Alex Pickman


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