Sunday, January 18, 2009

Very exciting week of weather

Lets start off with what happened over the weekend. Friday, a very small disturbence moved through producing a decent little area of snow. It developed in Nebraska out ahead of an approaching warm front which provided the area with enough lift and moisture for precipitation to form. The area of of snow increased in coverage as it headed southeast. A band of heavier snow developed and trained right through the south side of Kansas City where I thought it would fall. In this narrow band, one to in some cases over 2 inches fell. Areas surrounding that narrow band had a very light dusting to 3/4".

The snow didn't stay on the ground for too long as the winds Saturday morning picked up into the 10 to 20 mph range and literally "blew" the snow away. The southerly winds warmed the area into the 30's and 40's. A weak cold front moved through during the afternoon and the temperatures dropped a few degrees, and remained pretty constant during the overnight hours. By this morning (Sunday) temperatures were in the low to mid 30's and highs today were in the 40's and 50's. The winds remained breezy. There was another very weak backdoor front that pushed through today. So today was very similar to Saturday.

Now what about this week. Well I can tell you it is going to be very exciting and interesting for sure. There is a broad area of low pressure developing near the Great Lakes, and we are located on the very edge of this storm. The low will linger there for a couple days and it will force in a couple of backdoor fronts this week. Along with these fronts, there will be little disturbences.

The first of these diturbences will push through sometime Monday afternoon or late Monday night. Take a look at the map below:

(click to enlarge)

This map is the 6z GFS 500 mb valid 1-20-09. Notice the upper low near the Great Lakes as I was talking about. Also notice the vort max in Iowa (the x), that will be the first disturbence around Monday that bring some flurries or snow showers mainly in Central and Eastern Missouri Sunday night through Monday night. Then a reinforecing cooler shot Monday night and Tuesday morning.

There will likely be no accumulation to a heavy dusting in spots through Tuesday morning.

Here is something interesting, and we have seen it several times this Winter - The "dominating" Eastern trough. Take a look at the map below from Gary Lezak's Winter forecast:

Can you see the comparison? It is not as defined as it was on January 13th, but it is there.

Now here is the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Monday morning will be cool with temperatures in the low to mid 20's. It will remain cloudy as this disturbence approaches the area, and this will prevent maximum temperature rise. Highs will likley be in te 30's with near 40 south of Kansas City. There will also be an increasing chance of flurries and/or snow showers developing in the afternoon or Monday night, but they will likely remain in Central and Eastern Missouri if they do form. Then the backdoor front will push through Monday night, and temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's. But, warmer air will be trying to squeeze back in as we are right on the edge of the warm and cold air. Highs Tuesday will be a bit cooler, only in the 30's to possibly near 40 degrees around Kansas City. Winds will be in the 10 to 25 mph range Monday and Tuesday. But the good news is the warm air will win out as the upper low over the Great Lakes moves away.

Highs will jump from the 30's on Tuesday all way to the 50's and 60's Wednesday and Thursday. But then there will be a change. If you take a look at the 500 mb map I posted above, you can see a low well off the coast of California. This will likely be our next storm system due in Friday. Depending on the track, we may have rain, mix, or snow. But according to the LRC, we should get some precipitation out of it. If you want to know what the LRC is, go back to blog named Gary Lezak's Winter forecast.

Right now, I am not thinking there will be any accumulation, but this storm is still a ways away. After this storm goes by, there will be a chunk of arctic air that will push into the region. Right now, I am thinking teens and to mid 20's for highs, but if there is snow on the ground from this next storm, then the temperatures next week will be much colder.

Alex Pickman


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