Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Arctic blast and warm up!

Well this morning was definitly cold with temperatures ranging from 0 to 10 degrees around the area. This was in response to the first clipper system that affected us Monday into Monday night. Highs Monday were in the 40's and low 50's. Then the front pushed through in the afternoon, and Tuesday morning lows were in the single digits.

Now the second of the two clipper systems this week is begining to affect us right now with winds picking up overnight out of the south. Take a look at the surface map I drew below:

Notice the 40 to near 50 degree weather out in Kansas and the warm front just east of the Kansas/Missouri state line. The southerly winds will blow to near 30 mph, warming the area into the upper 20's and low to mid 30's tonight.

The low tracking into Iowa will continue to track east southeast, and here is where I think the storm may be Wednesday morning around 7:00 AM. Take a look at the map I drew below:

This is likely going to be the strongest cold front of the season. The gusty southerly winds will continue overnight, and once the front pushes through tomorrow morning, the winds will pick up out of the north to 20 to 35 mph, gusting to 45+ mph at times.

There are a few flurries possible with this front.

Along with the winds, the temperatures will be plumiting from an early morning high in the upper 20's and 30's to a temperature range of 0 to -10 degrees. With temperatures like this in place, windchill values will range from -5 to -25 degrees, and even colder in stong wind gusts where it ay feel more like -30 degrees.

So here is the breakdown for tonight through Wednesday:

Winds will continue strong out of the south tonight warming the temperatures to near freezing. A strong arctic front blasts through Wednesday morning and winds will switch to the north and increase to speeds of 20 to 35 mph. Temperatures will crash throughout the day, and by 7:00 PM, it will be in the single digits, and continue to fall between 0 and -10 degrees overnight Wednesday. Windchill values will be between -5 and -25 to -30 degrees.

The brutally cold temperatures will continue trough Thursday as a strong high settles over the area. I think the computer models are overdoing the temperatures a bit. They have done this all season. So here are a few random city's where I will show my temperature forecast high for Thursday:

Kansas City International- 11 degrees
St. Joseph, MO - 8 degrees
Atchison, KS- 8 degrees
Chillicothe, MO- 9 degrees
Marceline, MO- 8 degrees
Trenton, MO- 6 degrees

Windchill values between -5 and -25 degrees will continue through Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night will be cold, and likely dipping below zero in many spots, but the winds will calm downand then shift to the south once again. By Friday afternoon, the high will be in the 30's and 40's. Saturday through Monday all look to be in the 40's to low 50's in spots! And Tuesday looks to be in the 50's and 60's around the area! So this wild weather continues with these wild temperature swings.

Now there will be a change at the end of next week as when you get a ridge like what is forecasted next week inland this time of year, it will always be followed up by a trough, and that is what is forecasted to happen. So expect another big temperature swing sometime next week.

I will have an update on the cold front tomorrow morning.



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